Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,253

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Seems likely with amplified MJO in 6/7 though -AO could dilute it somewhat. Despite Jan being a mild month overall I did notice the lack of 50+ temperatures we often see due to the AO.
  2. SnoSki14
    You're right. I should clarify that anyone within the immediate NYC metro could be done. There might be a favorable period late Feb-early March but only if the MJO gets into 8. By then you're also working against the clock.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's a big IF. Most keep it in 7 which is warm for us. 1st half of Feb looks like garbage. Maybe it gets to 8 mid Feb but who knows at this point. If we get screwed on this event I'm gonna throw in the towel. We got the blocking this year but everything else has been crap. The pacific has been awful, the blocking was too far south, it's a miracle we scored anything.
  4. SnoSki14
    Non-event for many. Already 35F, radar looks crappy and HRRR shows nothing.
  5. SnoSki14
    Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.
  6. SnoSki14
    Legit or another tease? Odds are better than recent storms.
  7. SnoSki14
    I'll be shocked to get anywhere close to an inch. Looks like mostly a sleet/freezing rain affair south of I-80. Temps will hover near freezing but ground is still cold.
  8. SnoSki14
    The GFS looks like an early spring bowling ball. Very unusual to see this in late Jan.
  9. SnoSki14
    Yup watch that one.
  10. SnoSki14
    The Euro ain't as good as it used to be. It was too cold with the Dec event.
  11. SnoSki14
    CMC/GFS show definite storm signal 29th.
  12. SnoSki14
    I'm keeping an eye on the coastal post 26th threat. Big NAO/AO rise is a good precursor to a coastal storm. Don't think it'll be as suppressed as models currently show.
  13. SnoSki14
    Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart.
  14. SnoSki14
    Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec.
  15. SnoSki14
    A deep western trough will constructively interfere with a strong NAO blocking regime. This is not 2010. There will be ample resistance to the blocking which could benefit us.
  16. SnoSki14
    We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error.
  17. SnoSki14
    The models ramming the block are going to be wrong. I see Miller B or SWFE. Caveats apply this far out.
  18. SnoSki14
    The cold could be pretty prolonged once it gets here. -EPO will deliver the cold and blocking stays put. I don't trust models breaking down EPO so quickly given the PV will continue to be attacked into early Feb. February will look substantially different this winter than last couple years and yes eventually we will score. February is the snowiest month for a reason.
  19. SnoSki14
    Hopefully we can sneak in a couple small events. Nothing worse than cold & dry.
  20. SnoSki14
    Meanwhile Madrid & parts of Europe are getting hammered.
  21. SnoSki14
    Could end up very PDII-ish by the 20th. SE ridge gets a bit stronger but stout -NAO remains with cross-polar flow possible. Could set the stage for a widespread overrunner to coastal type event near the 20th. I see 4 chances with one on the 8th (long shot but still worth monitoring), the 12/13th (mixed look on models w/better PNA than 8th), the 15/16th (good PNA/atlantic blocking w/arctic air coming south - could see something like Jan 2005), and then 18-20th.
  22. SnoSki14
    It's pretty clear that the 1st half of Jan wouldn't be the best however there'd still be opportunities to score. The 2nd half is filled with potential due to vastly improved pacific drilling in colder air. EPO/PNA improves, AO/NAO stay negative though not so negative as to lead to an 09/10 suppression pattern. Normally this would start to break down in Feb in a Nina pattern but the SSW and the atypical Nina atmosphere could easily drag this out further. Remember how atypical Febs have been in what should've been ideal west-based Nino patterns.
  23. SnoSki14
    This is a darn good snow pattern coming up. It's not very cold but cold enough however by mid Jan the west pops a PNA and EPO region improves significantly likely allowing some arctic air to pour south.
  24. SnoSki14
    In Dec 2010 it took a while before the pattern produced. I'm getting ready to sell the 8th system. Does not look good upstream and models are trending away from a hit.
  25. SnoSki14
    Dec 2010 El Nino?
×
×
  • Create New...