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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Don't worry we'll get our March snowstorms like always. And Bluewave tried to warn everybody.
  2. SnoSki14
    Well then it should make forecasting winter a lot easier.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's an understatement. I've seen models go from strong Atlantic blocking to troughing over a few short runs and then back again. Not too long ago models had eastern ridging end of November and early December before the strong 50/50 type low showed up.
  4. SnoSki14
    The first 10 days of December do look very cold, some nice arctic shots on the GFS. I hope models show more blockiness appear though, a +NAO/AO is generally bad news though I'd rather still see a favorable Pacific. It's crazy how similar we are to last year thus far.
  5. SnoSki14
    We've seen this same song and dance since the early 2010s, it's best to be cautious. Right now the pattern has been eerily similar to previous winters with a cold November and nearly identical forcing patterns. Repeating patterns have also been very common too.
  6. SnoSki14
    Looks like the -NAO will give way to a -EPO type of pattern with CONUS wide cold possible. Atlantic blocking is great but I'd much rather see a more favorable Pacific.
  7. SnoSki14
    Although last December wasn't terrible, a lot of it was bad luck as we missed out on a snowstorm that hit further south.
  8. SnoSki14
    At least the blocking isn't trending weaker but yes this has been an ongoing concern. That's why I still lean December being mild though not a torch like some recent years.
  9. SnoSki14
    But will it hold, the blocking severity has often decreased the closer we get. At least there's good agreement between the GEFS/EPS. The EPO trending more favorably is also really good news.
  10. SnoSki14
    Almost got rid of that torch Thanksgiving cutter. Could just end up being a frontal boundary.
  11. SnoSki14
    Nice look to start December, maybe 2010-2011 esque with the -PNA and -NAO. EPS/GEFS agree. Not particularly cold but could be good enough especially as we head deeper towards winter.
  12. SnoSki14
    That's why I think January may surprise us this year. Even with a so-so Pacific, a little Atlantic blocking and favorable climo could really produce. Also a Nina-ish December with some blocking could be decent too. Occasionally we get seasons where the entire country can score versus the typical east warm, west cold or vice-versa.
  13. SnoSki14
    Some signs the EPO dips to start December with a weak -NAO, would be nice if the GEFS were correct for a change. Pattern doesn't look torchy but it's gotta be better than this to produce. Oh well, the next couple weeks should be mostly pleasant with maybe near 60 temps this Friday and then near Thanksgiving.
  14. SnoSki14
    Lots of conflicting signals. Not really the best pattern with a very stale Pacific driven airmass.
  15. SnoSki14
    Looks like last December with slightly more favorable Atlantic blocking.
  16. SnoSki14
    It'll prevent us from torching (well almost) but the Pacific is a lot more important and the -PNA /+EPO is of no help.
  17. SnoSki14
    Well it would have been nice to get something out of a record cold pattern if December may crap the bed. Doesn't look like a torch though FWIW. Pretty good signal of some NAO blocking lingering on GEFS/EPS with a favorable MJO.
  18. SnoSki14
    Uh oh I guess we're back to crossing our fingers for the long range to work out. We know how abysmal last year's weeklies turned out. The NAO has constantly verified weaker outside Spring/Summer for many years now. I suspect the -EPO will come back after Grinchmas.
  19. SnoSki14
    I don't see anything wrong with my statement. Everything Bluewave said is correct with models overdoing the -NAO blocking and the unreliable 11-15 day forecasts...have we learned nothing from last year. The ridge north of Hawaii basically screams strong Pacific jet and the -EPO is gone. There's literally nothing to prevent a much stronger SE ridge and it fits right in with the 2010s repeating patterns. So expect a mild December, a neutral January, a warm February, and a cold/snowy March.
  20. SnoSki14
    Models now showing a huge eastern ridge last few days of November and December with large trough west, default pattern last several years. Looking forward to the warmer weather as there's no need for this type of cold.
  21. SnoSki14
    It's back to a PNA driven pattern with a tempered NAO. Hopefully we see more blocking show up, it would help a lot this early in the season. EPS will probably be better.
  22. SnoSki14
    There's some potential last week of November if models are correct about the blocking however they've been very shifty as of late. The cold will also be quite marginal. GEFS would be a great pattern particularly from mid Dec onwards when climo becomes more favorable.
  23. SnoSki14
    Weather pattern next 2 weeks looks pretty dull honestly, surprised given some of the teleconnections/MJO. This has been a dry month too and that looks to continue, really hope that's not a theme heading forward. There's some blocking showing up but without a -EPO we're just dealing with a stale north Pacific airmass that'll bring near normal temps. I guess it could be much worse but not much to get excited about for a long time.
  24. SnoSki14
    These models always seem to be default warm.
  25. SnoSki14
    Euro Op has three coastals, not a bad thing to see this time of year.
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