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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Looks like they'll be a ton of potential with consistent blocking up north and pacific shortwaves coming through every few days. Not all of them may be snow or produce but odds are greater than normal plus climo starts to become a lot more favorable for us.
  2. SnoSki14
    If we get to 60F+ plus the squall line then those 60-80mph gusts will mix down. Correct forecast is very conservative because they assume the inversion will hold however how many times how temps gone over forecast in the warm sector during these cases. Snow pack is also rapidly dwindling south of I-78.
  3. SnoSki14
    Is it though? There's something to be said about how decoupled the atmospheric pattern seems to be from the ENSO state. And then there's that whole Hadley Cell argument which is addressed well on the SNE forum.
  4. SnoSki14
    Somehow I doubt that. I see the late Dec storm but it looks too warm right now. Climo is more favorable so can't rule out snows even to NYC though. I think 1st week of Jan will offer better potential for this regions as pacific improves and blocking gets more established. I noticed the GEFS seemed to capture the Arctic blocking better than EPS in the long range. EPS has been playing catch-up these past few days.
  5. SnoSki14
    I don't see any full latitude trough on the ensembles.
  6. SnoSki14
    If the Arctic blocking is real then models will correct south as we get closer. Still i would favor the 1st week of Jan over DT's idea, think late Dec is a little early for us.
  7. SnoSki14
    MJO will be moving towards favorable 8-2 phases as well though near the circle. I'd be shocked if we didn't see another major snowstorm by Jan 10.
  8. SnoSki14
    Nam has another inch or so in a few days.
  9. SnoSki14
    Let's hope so that'd be a blast. Very strong wind gusts too, gfs shows legit HWW conditions. Fingers crossed for a flash freeze event Xmas eve
  10. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's coming down big time. Cold too at 26F west of Piscataway.
  11. SnoSki14
    That's more than all of last winter. I'd take it and run.
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see this. I think a lot of us are getting too weenied out, I smell a bust with a lot more sleet than people think.
  13. SnoSki14
    Light dusting near Piscataway 30/18
  14. SnoSki14
    HRRR showing the backend a bit better now. We could easily add 2-4" as temps drop quickly and winds pick up.
  15. SnoSki14
    I think had 7" of pure sleet it was insane. Absolute nightmare on the roads and trying to shovel that crap.
  16. SnoSki14
    The sleet glaze and strong winds will make this storm more dangerous than had it been a plain snowstorm. So yes that line will be evil in more ways than one because surface temperatures will likely stay below freezing + we're heading into nighttime hours.
  17. SnoSki14
    That's why people need to temper expectations. We've seen how sleet advances well before it's supposed to time and time again. Another danger will be the winds later on. Several inches of snow + sleet accumulations + 40-50mph+ winds will lead to outages.
  18. SnoSki14
    The backend is my biggest question mark. If it's as intense as the gfs shows then it could drop several inches in 2-3 hours.
  19. SnoSki14
    People should temper their expectations because there's significant bust potential. If the immediate NYC metro scores 6" consider that a huge win.
  20. SnoSki14
    I agree the bust potential is huge. Of course what happens there doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen here. Side note I'm starting to think the backside stuff is real. Models leaning more on an intense band of snow developing as the storm slowly pulls east.
  21. SnoSki14
    Heavier precip will be snow, lighter will be more sleety. It's going to be really close for fringe areas. Those spots are just as likely to see 6" as they are to see 12"+. Backside snows are a wildcard.
  22. SnoSki14
    The wet bulb temps are the only thing that matters. In this case the surface temps could be 35-37 and they'd drop to 28-30F when the snow starts.
  23. SnoSki14
    What will determine if we get those higher amounts will be any backside snows. The initial thump will be followed by a dry slot and then maybe a partial CCB.
  24. SnoSki14
    I can't believe raindance said that silly statement unless he was referring to the previous system. Still the soil temp idea is pretty ridiculous when it can go from pouring to snow drifts in hours.
  25. SnoSki14
    I heard 06Z Euro looked really good.
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