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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Good to see a mix of more northern solutions in there.
  2. SnoSki14
    I'd be very surprised if the jackpots were south.
  3. SnoSki14
    Anything beyond 48hrs is useless on the NAM. But yes a lesser solution is still on the table especially those north of the city. One of the top analogs was the late Jan 2015 storm. However others like Dec 09, Jan 2016, Dec 2010 and even Jan 96 were in there too.
  4. SnoSki14
    We will adding a lot to this too.
  5. SnoSki14
    That should really help consolidate the energy and it makes it more likely to be tucked in further west. This feels like a system where the amounts will go up as we get closer. I think the odds of a whiff are shrinking.
  6. SnoSki14
    Looks like a gradient battle for Feb. Tons of cold on our side, we'll maintain AO/NAO blocking. SE ridge will be fighting back with MJO stuck at 7. Could be interesting.
  7. SnoSki14
    With primary being pretty far north, 50/50 low moving east, and strong ridging east of New England being the norm I do not think this will be a suppressed system at least not for immediate NYC metro. I think the Euro will come around soon enough.
  8. SnoSki14
    Shocker that you're saying it's a miss. The Euro is an outlier. I do think the cut off will be tight but NYC south will do fine.
  9. SnoSki14
    Hopefully the models are coming together tonight.
  10. SnoSki14
    Um no it isn't lol. 50/50 low quickly moving east. The strong ridging east of New England supports a further west track. I'd rather show models being south right now than a bullseye. Remember what happened in December when we thought we'd get the brunt of it.
  11. SnoSki14
    Yeah if that happens Feb will torch.
  12. SnoSki14
    Euros slow bias is in play. The other models are a good bit faster so that the low ends up further offshore. Can't discount it either just yet.
  13. SnoSki14
    QPF outputs still look very disjointed. Hopefully that clears up as we get closer. Risk for 6"+ event increasing.
  14. SnoSki14
    The blocking will stick around and the trough axis will be to our west. Looks like a lot of cold on our side of the globe though. Some tight gradient storms, SWFE are probable but could benefit New England more than us.
  15. SnoSki14
    I'm not sweating on the thermals. We'll have a nice arctic air supply prior to the storm. Unless the low ends up hugging the coast we should be fine.
  16. SnoSki14
    Gfs is still trending south with the system (primary low). It'll be a while before it gets a clue. Suppression is the biggest concern, not thermals.
  17. SnoSki14
    Isotherm's analysis was def reassuring. This is by far the best chance of snow since December. I wouldn't sweat on the details just yet.
  18. SnoSki14
    Seems likely with amplified MJO in 6/7 though -AO could dilute it somewhat. Despite Jan being a mild month overall I did notice the lack of 50+ temperatures we often see due to the AO.
  19. SnoSki14
    You're right. I should clarify that anyone within the immediate NYC metro could be done. There might be a favorable period late Feb-early March but only if the MJO gets into 8. By then you're also working against the clock.
  20. SnoSki14
    That's a big IF. Most keep it in 7 which is warm for us. 1st half of Feb looks like garbage. Maybe it gets to 8 mid Feb but who knows at this point. If we get screwed on this event I'm gonna throw in the towel. We got the blocking this year but everything else has been crap. The pacific has been awful, the blocking was too far south, it's a miracle we scored anything.
  21. SnoSki14
    Non-event for many. Already 35F, radar looks crappy and HRRR shows nothing.
  22. SnoSki14
    Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.
  23. SnoSki14
    Legit or another tease? Odds are better than recent storms.
  24. SnoSki14
    I'll be shocked to get anywhere close to an inch. Looks like mostly a sleet/freezing rain affair south of I-80. Temps will hover near freezing but ground is still cold.
  25. SnoSki14
    The GFS looks like an early spring bowling ball. Very unusual to see this in late Jan.
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