SnoSki14

Nice car topper with grassy surfaces getting covered. Rates aren't the best though.

It'll probably be an inch on grassy and colder surfaces, that's what the HRRR is indicating at least. There's still a pretty hefty chunk of moisture to go through.

MJO avoiding the warmer phases thus far, some have it looping around toward the better phases from the circle last week of December. This is noticeably different than last year which had it going through 4-6 and lingering there for weeks. This could be why a -AO/neutral NAO are showing up 2nd half of December. Personally I'm a fan of this progression and it's why January could be a surprisingly good month.

Like I said yesterday, we'd be lucky to get an inch. No change from that idea.

That's what happens when we get spoiled with KU after KU since 2000. You really start to lose your appreciation for them.

I think we'll be lucky to see an inch.

Another year, another pattern that trends in an unfavorable direction. At least you got the big storm recently, we're pretty much screwed down here for a very long time. A well timed SWFE may be the only thing that could save us as I highly doubt the anafrontal precip will work out. The blocking will probably wait till the end of the season aka March though it'd be nice if the atmosphere could act like a typical Nino and give us a good February for a change.

Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily.

The -EPO tends to dump cold further west first then east. Seeing a soaring AO/NAO doesn't inspire much confidence. The past storm that dumped on SNE had a transitioning -NAO/AO or the complete opposite of what we're seeing now. Unless the -EPO/+PNA combo is very strong a la 2013 it won't be enough to overcome the lack of blocking. Our only chance would be a front-end dump from a well timed SWFE.

Very ugly and the GEFS are pretty much garbage after 5 days. Much higher skill in the EPS for the LR. Cutter pattern looks likely with cold/dry to warm/wet on repeat. +AO/NAO are of no help.

Really impressive cutter for Tue/Wed. Has like upper 60s and 50-60 mph gusts ahead of the front to 20s behind it.

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

I'm not that impressed going forward. The -EPO will deliver transient cold shots but the positive AO/NAO will cause any system to cut and torch us unless we see a very strong -EPO/+PNA pattern like 2013. Currently models aren't showing anything that strong. EPS wasn't very good either and models are already backing off any major arctic blast. The MJO is another question mark, some models show it moving into the warmer phases but there might be resistance so we'll have to see. Best chance at something more favorable will be 3rd week of December. Overall the month should overall average AN on temps.

Could be a massive arctic outbreak if trends continue followed by a possible SWFE. Euro even has some -NAO ridging.

Models trying to kill the MJO before it gets to phase 3 instead of it freely traveling into the warmer phases like last December. Early signs of an arctic plunge that would easily deliver the coldest air of the season Dec 11-13. Still I'm a bit weary about this given the AO won't be in a hurry to turn negative.

Unfortunately things didn't come together like they should have. Instead of a singular strengthening low slowly moving east towards the BM, we got a string of lows competing for dominance and the upper level low is trying to align with both. This led to a messy precip shield and a lack of frontogenesis that would have brought heavy rates and subsequently lower temperatures.

EPS disagrees and it holds more merit than the GFS op runs. Doesn't look like a nonstop torch but it should overall be mild with transient cool shots thrown in. One caveat is the blocking Bluewave described and to an extent the +PNA, that should mitigate the warmth somewhat.

The worst won't hit till after sunset, that's when the strongest banding will arrive.

It's warranted given tonight's trends. NAM looks nice now too especially just west of the city. I see precip starting to pop in NE NJ. Current temps 36-37F with 33-35F a bit further west.

Given the vast uncertainty regarding where the heaviest bands will setup, this would be foolish to give up. Massive bust potential though for someone, good or bad. Personally I think they'll be a large deform band over our area with the heaviest just west of the city. Local spots could see 8-12" with many seeing 6"+

Based on the movement & location of the closed low most of us should get a strong hit. I think parts of NJ could see close to a foot.

Models will keep shifting the heaviest amounts around.

This deform band is no joke wherever it sets up. As of now it looks to be over NJ particularly just west of the city.

NJ has been getting an extremely generous amount of snowfall over the past 20 years. Normal is like 20-30 for most of the state.

Tomorrow should be interesting, that's a powerful closed low.