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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    We should get 2-3 hours of mod-heavy snows before sleet fully mixes in.
  2. SnoSki14
    Probably some subsidence after the strong band rolled through. The main area of sleet is now building in SW NJ. Just north of the sleet will be where the heaviest snow falls.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah snowfall rates are really crappy right now.
  4. SnoSki14
    Getting heavier with larger flakes now. 25F
  5. SnoSki14
    Assuming those returns in east PA/west NJ are all snow we're about to get smoked here in Somerset.
  6. SnoSki14
    Looks like it backed off on the coastal but I don't think we'd complain if 8-10" fell. Still worried about sleet. Will be fighting it later on.
  7. SnoSki14
    Not necessarily. It's not unusual for warmer mid-level air to get further north than expected...in fact it should be expected at this point.
  8. SnoSki14
    Wow really.
  9. SnoSki14
    Do you have the link to monitor where sleet is.
  10. SnoSki14
    It'll be fine. A general 4-6" is likely with higher amounts possible.
  11. SnoSki14
    In almost every instance there's been last second north shifts so I wouldn't be surprised to see one here.
  12. SnoSki14
    I think that'll be the case. If the precip is heavier it'll be snow, lighter & more sleet though the first 4-5 hours should be all snow. I do think the heaviest snows will be a bit north of where models show as is nearly always the case.
  13. SnoSki14
    Could go either way. You could torch like today's Euro shows or have a large cold spell like the gfs shows. Pure guessing games after day 4-5. Tellies would strongly favor the milder scenario though and that's what I think will happen but def can't rule out a March snowstorm.
  14. SnoSki14
    It's a front end thump followed by some snow on Friday. Thump is good up to NYC. I think the forecast is pretty cut & dry. Don't model hug too much or you'll get burnt like with the last 5-8" storm on Superbowl Sunday. 6-8" looks good from combined parts.
  15. SnoSki14
    6-8" looking good right now. Surface temps will be very cold (low to mid 20s). I could see some places nearing 10" but that's highly dependent on mixing. There will likely be a few hours of 2-3"+ hourly rates though.
  16. SnoSki14
    6" with this system will be much more impactful than the previous one that hit Sunday. Very cold temps likely with this one which will accumulate on roadways and the worst will be during commute times.
  17. SnoSki14
    The WAA snows should easily get into central NJ and probably NYC Thursday morning & afternoon. Snow growth should be very good with temps probably in the low to mid 20s. Ratios could be higher than 10:1 and that alone could drop 4-6" over 3-6hrs. Increasingly models are indicating a coastal element which bears watching. So my initial thoughts are 3-6" from WAA snows up to NYC then a dry slot or sleet followed by another round of snow on Friday. How much falls with that is unknown and models are still trending.
  18. SnoSki14
    Seems like most events ticked north in the end so wouldn't be surprised to see that again. However the last mini snow event did stay south and never really ticked north. I feel good about this one here bc even north ticks would likely result in a 6" front-end thump.
  19. SnoSki14
    I like 6-10" right now though that's highly dependent on when the sleet arrives. The lower end looks likely.
  20. SnoSki14
    That's a nice cold Nam run. It's still a tad out of range though.
  21. SnoSki14
    The UKMET has not performed well lately.
  22. SnoSki14
    Cmc would be nice though even the Nam/Gfs have a strong front-end thump before any changeover. I think a 6" event is looking pretty good right now.
  23. SnoSki14
    Main point is that Nam which is the most amped up model continues to trend colder. It almost looks like warmer, more inland version of PD II with overrunning then coastal. If the 12z suite holds or trends colder then we'll see watch this afternoon.
  24. SnoSki14
    What did you expect our seasonal averages are less than 30" and we've already exceeded that. By this time the focus is already shifting north.
  25. SnoSki14
    Most of the rains fell when it was in the mid 30s so a lot of it was absorbed by the pack. However we will see a lot more melting with temps likely climbing through the 40s.
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