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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    This storm could signal a pattern change however there are signals that blocking will return late Feb. However I'm pretty sure this will be a cutter. Us having snow cover for more than 2 weeks is very rare so I expect the blocking to break down and a lot of melting to start by the 18-19th storm and beyond. Hopefully the melt doesn't happen all at once. If the 16th storm delivers then that'll aggregate the flooding potential.
  2. SnoSki14
    That'd be nice. I think it's gonna be really close for us.
  3. SnoSki14
    The 14th still looks minor to me. I feel the 16th will be snowier but it'll be close or like a snow to sleet situation. It's by far the biggest wintry threat in the short term. The 18/19 still looks like sleet/ice to rain but strong low level cold could turn it into a more SWFE.
  4. SnoSki14
    I'd go with less like the Canadian shows.
  5. SnoSki14
    The cutter will likely be the 18/19th but Vday and 16th look wintry.
  6. SnoSki14
    Early thoughts are that we take a break from wintry weather after the 16th system however we could see an ice/snow to rain solution for the 18/19 as the low level cold will be tough to scour out. But mostly from the 17-23/24 it looks unfavorable for wintry weather. Beyond that it's possible the blocking returns while the SE ridge diminishes (MJO collapses into circle or goes low amplitude 6-8). If that's the case there could be more wintry opportunities late Feb into March.
  7. SnoSki14
    One system at a time. Let's get pass tonight then focus on the 14th and so forth.
  8. SnoSki14
    Advisory snows very likely south of I-78. I'd go with 2-4" but higher ratios could give us 3-6" especially if the north ticks continue.
  9. SnoSki14
    And it's probably junk. The gfs tried this for the 14th system.
  10. SnoSki14
    Rgem looks better.
  11. SnoSki14
    I'm getting concerned about the ice threats. Hopefully it's more sleet than freezing rain. Low level temps look really cold too.
  12. SnoSki14
    MJO looks to collapse after the 18th or even earlier. Low amplitude 6-8 would reduce the SE ridge in the presence of blocking, which is likely to continue.
  13. SnoSki14
    Good chance this keeps ticking north like the last system.
  14. SnoSki14
    These north ticks would really help this time.
  15. SnoSki14
    We may have to wait until TPV shifts east. The Vday storm could be a sloppy mess if it works out due to strong low level cold. The following system has more going for it.
  16. SnoSki14
    The storm this weekend will have everything to do with the placement of the TPV & SE ridge strength. Gfs adjusted more suppressed/colder but the end result would still be a snow to mix/rain solution. Looks like canadian is similar. You guys to the north should clean up while areas near NYC are in a more precarious spot.
  17. SnoSki14
    Whatever garbage the gfs is showing ain't happening.
  18. SnoSki14
    The Gfs cutter idea for the 14th doesn't make sense at all with the TPV so close by. That screams miller B to me and could be a significant event with ample gulf moisture getting involved.
  19. SnoSki14
    It still might. There's so many shortwaves and model inconsistencies that snowier solution could pop in a couple model cycles. We just saw this on Sunday where models abandoned the storm only to bring it back a couple days before it happened and many still got it wrong the day of the event. That's why it's best to stay in the 36-48hr range to deal with every shortwave. I'm still pretty confident we get snows Thursday/Friday.
  20. SnoSki14
    NYC should pick up an inch or two. A couple more ticks south are possible. Dense cold airmass in place with deep snow cover.
  21. SnoSki14
    I'm starting to lean that way too. Not much precip with it either. I'm liking the overrunning a lot better Thursday/Friday.
  22. SnoSki14
    Canadian looks better. -NAO with AO rapidly diving plus the extent of the cold/snow cover would argue for slight southerly adjustments for Tuesday. The amped Nam doesn't make much sense here.
  23. SnoSki14
    Would be nice if Rgem was correct. We get the best of both Tue & Thursday systems. If everything works out we could get 6-8" but we could also get 0-2".
  24. SnoSki14
    Yes it'll take a while to get everything in order. Your analysis is solid for the next several events. The Tuesday event will probably be too far north for NYC but it could always trend a bit south. Best chance will be Friday and then we'll see what late weekend brings. Large rise in the AO & flip to +PNA could indicate something bigger than a nuisance event.
  25. SnoSki14
    Yeah they always do this. One month of cold/snow doesn't negate the dozens of very warm months before it. Dec/Jan were still several degrees above normal. However we are also getting a highly anomalous pattern that likely has something to do with climate change. lengthy blocking, a cold/snowy Feb La Nina.
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