SnoSki14

If this continues into summer we could see 100s.

This spring/summer will be an inferno. We've also definitely crossed some climate threshold over the past few years with nearly every month challenging top 10 warmest records.

80s by mid March? Euro/EPS have a massive 2012 style eastern ridge. Growing season will be 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule.

Shades of 2012. That screams 60s and 70s. Even an 80F reading wouldn't surprise me later in the month.

Yeah no lol. My house is already buried in feet of virtual snow.

I guess it depends on how rainy Spring gets. Still this string of well above normal weather has me concerned about the summer. We're putting up +5 or better readings like nothing. Don't see why that wouldn't continue.

Normally this isn't a bad look 5 days out but we've gotten so burned this winter that we won't believe it till we see it. We have a better chance of this type of system working out in March then Jan/Feb with the shifting wavelengths.

I imagine at some point we see another cold winter to balance some of this out but who knows when.

Is the GFS really this crappy. It just exploded the upcoming W NY storm into the low 970s. None of the other models show this.

This is true, I don't think many could've imagined nearly zero snowfall for places like Philly. Iso did well with his forecast anomalies and I think everyone was too cold but again you don't ever forecast +5 or better anomalies for the entire winter. Early March preview looks bleak with today's weeklies. Doubt that turns around much. Kinda happy about that as it breaks the cold Nov/March & warm winter cycle. Hopefully it'll mean a colder met winter soon. Overall much better forecasting year for many (unless you're JB).

With the very early start to the growing season (3+ weeks early) in the Mid-Atlantic/South I think there could be a destructive freeze in late March or early April if the AO flips by then.

He was way off on snowfall totals around here and his March call isn't going to pan out. He was also way too cold for a majority of the country particularly the central US. He did a lot better last season imo.

Time to wave goodbye to the non-winter of 19/20. We were due for a true clunker. It can only get better next season.

Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point.

JB has been a disaster last several years and people are finally calling him out on it. I can't believe there are still some who believe this global cooling nonsense that he's been harping on.

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one. High temp/high dew combo in the works?

The nightmare is almost over. I'm actually a lot more optimistic about this spring. Right now it doesn't look like a repeat of past years' cold/wet blocky springs. This is definitely my worst winter ever. Worse than 11/12 & 01/02 which were a lot less murky. Snow wise it's about the same. This year we got the worst/ugliest pattern possible with the worst teleconnections you could find. Honestly the warmth & lack of snow easily could've been worse but the pattern gave us just slightly better conditions on this side of the globe vs Europe which saw the warmest winter ever.

The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November. This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March.

Nice hit for Eastern NC on the GFS.

They have a legit shot at a moderate snow event. Anything to add to our misery.

It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned). Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter.

Only 13F right now, coldest night of the winter. A good early bug killer so I'll take it.

Tonight will probably be the coldest night of the season. 12F is the current forecast. Afterwards there'll be one more cold shot next week and then we should fully moderate and finally put this miserable winter behind us. It'll be interesting to see how the current pattern reacts with the seasonal changes though. There's some talks of a cold April a la 1990 and that seems very possible at this juncture. Course by then it'd be useless and just lead to a chilly/wet month.

The AO could hit +6 or better again after just breaking that record 2 days ago. The north Atlantic system will likely be sub 920mb (record is 914mb) and if that AO is any indication then they'll be more severely low pressure storms in the near future. Iceland and NW Europe are gonna take a lot of beatings.