SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Watch it trend west tomorrow and Snowman19 will say see I knew it all along. Then he'll say we're all gonna mix or rain.
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Yeah giving up this far out given the setup is a little silly. The last storm may have whiffed on us but it buried parts of NJ & the Mid-Atlantic when models showed almost nothing just a couple days before.
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That's all you need to see. No question this will be much further west than last system. Expect big changes in model runs tonight or tomorrow.
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That shortwave is still very strong so it wouldn't shock me to see things amp up as we get closer. I do like that models shifted further SE today because it gives us more wiggle room in case things amp up tomorrow or Thursday. If models showed an amped solution today I'd be worried.
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Those Feb 2010 cutoffs were brutal down here. 10-20 miles was the difference between an inch and 8-10"
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At this point I'll take an inch hell even a dusting would work
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I think we have a greater than 50% at a moderate system (3-6"). The fast flow will counteract the negative tilt preventing a wound up hugger. Actually think parts of SNE are more likely to mix as storm really blows up and tucks in after it passes our region.
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Flow is too fast for such an inland track. Still think a whiff is more likely than cutter.
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Gfs disagrees and it did well with last system
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Flow is fast. We're going to see dramatic model shifts next couple days. I'm leaning towards a whiff right now.
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I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now
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Its not bad. Reminiscent of 13/14
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MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern. Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast.
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Progressive flow counteracts that risk. A whiff is much more probable imo
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I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even see flakes from this.
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Yeah seriously let them have this one.
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Yeah definitely. They can have it.
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Maybe the higher than forecast temps are a sign of stronger ridging. Prob not but wishcasting is fun.
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HRRR would be a big miss but it's also useless beyond 6-8 hours
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Painful to look at.
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Watching the radar will be brutal tomorrow.
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S NJ may get some interesting weather or the GFS is still on crack.
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That negative tilt causes the storm to slow down which allows precip to move further north.
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I do see a scenario where the northern extent ends up being 30-50 miles further north. A more energetic southern vortex leading to stronger negative tilt could get snows up to north central NJ. HRRR will be interesting moving forward.
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Well the Nam said that's a wrap and I think it's correct. Models were overdoing the NW ticks and are now pulling back. I expect the GFS to follow. You're relying on the southern vortex to do all the work without a lot of help from the northern stream, which is why the precip field is so tight. Let the Mid-Atlantic take the win here
