SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I think we're due for a scorcher. We haven't had an insane European style heatwave yet.
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The regular GFS is suggesting even a 70F reading could be possible. Definitely possible if AO soars to +5 or +6
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Amazing variation between SNE vs NYC metro this season. Here the winter is a solid B/B+ with well above normal snows, 4 weeks of snow cover, BN Feb temps. Nice December storm. Lack of 50+ temperatures. Negatives are a sucky January with AN temps Dec & Jan. If temps were a little colder with a good Jan storm then it would be an easy A- or better. The only true A/A+ seasons since 2000 would be 02/03 and 09/10. 13/14 & 14/15 are B+/A-
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The MJO running from phase 8-2 in March is not consistent with a warm March. Don't be surprised to see models back off the warmth. The short term Greenland block was definitely not expected.
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I'm not sure why people are so pessimistic. The EPS wasn't a bad look 168hrs out. Other ensembles look similar. There's been a sharpening of the PNA ridge and strengthening Greenland block ahead of the system. Nearly every system has trended west as we got closer. I'm all-in on this. It's the last threat of the season...go big or go home.
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If it showed a bomb right now you'd probably sell that too.
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It's gonna be a big one. MJO now solidly expected to be in phase 8 too. When models start sniffing something out 7+ days then you know it'll be significant.
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MJO now expected to be in phase 8 as the storm arrives.
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Strong cold high to the north could mean snows down to the coast. Really impressive potential.
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Big SOI drop is a precursor to a major storm. Ensembles continuing to show a sharp PNA ridge and subsequent coastal with partial phasing (for now). Noted dips in the AO/NAO around March 5-7 timeframe too. I know it's early but I think we'll see a whopper Miller A snowstorm or blizzard for the northeast. Models/ensembles are already signaling this over a week out, which is usually a really good sign for an upcoming major storm.
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These extremes will continue to increase. We could go from record warmth to cold and back in a couple days as the atmosphere gets more and more unstable. We could see more winters like 2015/16 with insane warmth followed by a record snowstorm. In addition I'm sure the warming east coast waters will increase the tropical threats with stronger storms and closer storm tracks.
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Kudos to the Gfs for sniffing out the brief arctic shot. It could still back off but there's a lot of snow cover especially to our north that would help maintain the cold. Oddly enough the current forecast is much warmer than what models show. I see 22F Monday night and 41 Wednesday. No way it'll be that warm.
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Basically Nina climo + AGW to come up with that forecast. Completely discounted blocking, SSW event, etc, Hadley cell interference.
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There's a slight chance of something in the March 5-7 timeframe. Looks like a bit of a AO/NAO dip and PNA rise. EPS showing a pretty potent though transient eastern trough
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Temps will always overperform on a sw wind.
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Yeah I'll be surprised if we get nothing even with unfavorable tellies. Seems like the cold is still lurking up north too. Old GFS still persistent on that crazy early March arctic shot. How funny if our coldest temperatures of the winter came in March.
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Lol sure. Where you live you may not get that till June easily.
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Could be a fluke run though Euro has MJO running through 8-1 in March.
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Time to start saying goodbye to the pack. Big melts rest of this week. I suspect we'll be reduced to piles by March 1st though your area should hold a bit holder.
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OBS and nowcast 10A-5P both Mon and Tue 2/22-23
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
That was a nice final event. Looks like a few inches with a nice snow globe look outside. I'm definitely ready for spring now as this event officially puts me over 40". -
Strong convective elements to this line. We could be talking 2"+ per hour rates for a couple hours.
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HRRR/Nam continue to suggest a thump of wet snow to the city. 2-3" west of city wouldn't surprise me.
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Yeah it'll be up there though Feb 2003, 2010, and 2015 may slightly take the cake. The extreme cold of 2015 was more impressive and 03 had the bigger storm. 2010 had higher monthly totals and was a couple degrees colder on average.
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A cold airmass is more vital than the sun angle and it's still only February. The biggest problem for tomorrow is the wind direction rather than daylight. However in marginal situations the daylight does matter.
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I'm looking forward to the mild weather and am ready for things to melt. Based on tellies March should end up very warm but with all these crazy factors and seasonal changes in play you just never know. For all we know the month will torch with a random blizzard squeezed in somewhere.
