SnoSki14

Really impressive cutter for Tue/Wed. Has like upper 60s and 50-60 mph gusts ahead of the front to 20s behind it.

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

I'm not that impressed going forward. The -EPO will deliver transient cold shots but the positive AO/NAO will cause any system to cut and torch us unless we see a very strong -EPO/+PNA pattern like 2013. Currently models aren't showing anything that strong. EPS wasn't very good either and models are already backing off any major arctic blast. The MJO is another question mark, some models show it moving into the warmer phases but there might be resistance so we'll have to see. Best chance at something more favorable will be 3rd week of December. Overall the month should overall average AN on temps.

Could be a massive arctic outbreak if trends continue followed by a possible SWFE. Euro even has some -NAO ridging.

Models trying to kill the MJO before it gets to phase 3 instead of it freely traveling into the warmer phases like last December. Early signs of an arctic plunge that would easily deliver the coldest air of the season Dec 11-13. Still I'm a bit weary about this given the AO won't be in a hurry to turn negative.

Unfortunately things didn't come together like they should have. Instead of a singular strengthening low slowly moving east towards the BM, we got a string of lows competing for dominance and the upper level low is trying to align with both. This led to a messy precip shield and a lack of frontogenesis that would have brought heavy rates and subsequently lower temperatures.

EPS disagrees and it holds more merit than the GFS op runs. Doesn't look like a nonstop torch but it should overall be mild with transient cool shots thrown in. One caveat is the blocking Bluewave described and to an extent the +PNA, that should mitigate the warmth somewhat.

The worst won't hit till after sunset, that's when the strongest banding will arrive.

It's warranted given tonight's trends. NAM looks nice now too especially just west of the city. I see precip starting to pop in NE NJ. Current temps 36-37F with 33-35F a bit further west.

Given the vast uncertainty regarding where the heaviest bands will setup, this would be foolish to give up. Massive bust potential though for someone, good or bad. Personally I think they'll be a large deform band over our area with the heaviest just west of the city. Local spots could see 8-12" with many seeing 6"+

Based on the movement & location of the closed low most of us should get a strong hit. I think parts of NJ could see close to a foot.

Models will keep shifting the heaviest amounts around.

This deform band is no joke wherever it sets up. As of now it looks to be over NJ particularly just west of the city.

NJ has been getting an extremely generous amount of snowfall over the past 20 years. Normal is like 20-30 for most of the state.

Tomorrow should be interesting, that's a powerful closed low.

We really won't know who's gonna get hit the most until it starts happening. High bust potential either way. However with the closed low passing to our south I feel a little better about our chances.

It's going to tough to warm-up the surface especially just N&W of the city. I see a dangerous icy situation unfolding for parts of the region. Monday will be a wildcard for sure, unfortunately the positive trends from yesterday didn't continue so now it'll be more of a waiting game.

I think Nov 2012 is a better comparison. My thought is that heavy deform banding will set up as the secondary low slowly pulls away and intensifies. Temps will easily be cold enough to support snow. Ice/sleet will be a threat on the front end.

Still thinking it'll be a 6-10" storm away from immediate coast. Front end could surprise as models always underestimate surface cold.

CT could be the jackpot spot as I think models will continue to trend slightly further south with the closed low.

I think we could see a November 2012 repeat with heavy banding as the closed low slowly moves eastward. GFS is a mess at the surface, big shock, but given it's depiction aloft it would really produce for us. If current trends continue then I think we see 6-10" for our region from the closed low.

Continuing to see the closed low trend south on the models. Makes me think the heaviest banding from the closed low could be near the city and in central NJ. Could be some sleet/FRZA with the front end though probably not much otherwise.

The EPS continues to trend stronger with the high to the north which would lead to south shifts with the low. And I fully expect that to continue.

The trend is nice to see but it could just as easily trend the other way though I personally think it'll go even further south. But the skepticism is definitely warranted especially for so early in the season.

Which is why I hope it keeps trending south now ahead of the inevitable north shift later.