SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah my biggest concern is FRZA. Surface cold looks to hold around 28-31F for a long time before warming. Those just N&W could be in for a miserable travel day. -
A fast Pacific flow + extreme blocking is one of the best results a la 2010/2011 but that's a very rare combination. In almost every other instance you'd want a more favorable Pacific over the Atlantic. Even the worst Atlantic pattern can be saved by a good Pacific.
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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Usually these trend north last minute but that's a pretty steep AO/NAO drop being depicted so it could actually trend south/colder as we get closer. -
Gonna have to watch that closely. I think ice is a much bigger concern obviously as surface temps will be very slow to warm.
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The Euro is just torching the country under a fast Pacific jet pattern. The northeast has basically been an ice cube in an ocean of lava this month. The blocking will probably continue to offset the torch for us but it wouldn't surprise me if we still ended up with a positive anomaly.
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GFS showing more front end snows next week. Surface cold is quite strong.
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Nam showing 2.5-4" amounts in eastern sections. The train of Pacific driven storms seems endless this month.
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And the Euro washes any hope away.
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That's a shame, but I guess the last rainstorm really cleared you guys out.
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EPS trending stronger with the blocking though. Will be interesting to see how these pieces counteract each other.
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If I had a dollar for every fantasy blizzard... Do not go beyond 4-5 days in this pattern. Next week is still a toss up. If blocking ends up stronger then it'll hold the 50/50 in place and we'd get a good front end hit. Seems possible with AO trending downward.
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If blocking does trend stronger than next week's system will act more like a SWFE. GFS trending in that direction now. The MJO failing to enter warmer phases has helped in that regard. However it won't take much for the system to cut and that's what I still favor atm.
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If you like a lot of winter rain then this is the pattern for you. I suppose there's a chance the weekend storm acts as a 50/50 for the following system but there's no block around to hold the 50/50 in place so tough luck.
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Like I said you'd be lucky to get an inch. This is just another grass/car topper nothing more. Wake me up when there's an actual threat coming.
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Similar to the last little event. Nice coating on everything. I guess it's better than nothing.
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Nice car topper with grassy surfaces getting covered. Rates aren't the best though.
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It'll probably be an inch on grassy and colder surfaces, that's what the HRRR is indicating at least. There's still a pretty hefty chunk of moisture to go through.
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MJO avoiding the warmer phases thus far, some have it looping around toward the better phases from the circle last week of December. This is noticeably different than last year which had it going through 4-6 and lingering there for weeks. This could be why a -AO/neutral NAO are showing up 2nd half of December. Personally I'm a fan of this progression and it's why January could be a surprisingly good month.
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Like I said yesterday, we'd be lucky to get an inch. No change from that idea.
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That's what happens when we get spoiled with KU after KU since 2000. You really start to lose your appreciation for them.
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I think we'll be lucky to see an inch.
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Another year, another pattern that trends in an unfavorable direction. At least you got the big storm recently, we're pretty much screwed down here for a very long time. A well timed SWFE may be the only thing that could save us as I highly doubt the anafrontal precip will work out. The blocking will probably wait till the end of the season aka March though it'd be nice if the atmosphere could act like a typical Nino and give us a good February for a change.
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Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily.
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The -EPO tends to dump cold further west first then east. Seeing a soaring AO/NAO doesn't inspire much confidence. The past storm that dumped on SNE had a transitioning -NAO/AO or the complete opposite of what we're seeing now. Unless the -EPO/+PNA combo is very strong a la 2013 it won't be enough to overcome the lack of blocking. Our only chance would be a front-end dump from a well timed SWFE.
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Very ugly and the GEFS are pretty much garbage after 5 days. Much higher skill in the EPS for the LR. Cutter pattern looks likely with cold/dry to warm/wet on repeat. +AO/NAO are of no help.
