SnoSki14

Late phase is on the table too and most probable imo. However because it's 4-5 days out it's still worth monitoring. Did notice the Euro trending towards phasing over the past 2 days, it would be the only way for us to snow given poor airmass. I wonder if 2006 is still an analog for this.

By mid Feb we'll know enough whether to write off winter completely or not. If it's this same ole 10+ day out song & dance then the rest of winter is more likely to follow the early 2010s late winter patterns. Arctic air will have to start getting involved post Feb 15 otherwise even a perfect track won't matter. That +EPO needs to flip.

I think we'll see a late phase where parts of eastern New England and especially eastern Canada will benefit. Although impressive the PNA spike will likely not be enough to counteract the lack of Atlantic blocking. The flow is way too fast and unless things change next 2-3 days I don't think we'll score.

Hopefully the ridge out west trends stronger otherwise it'll never phase or it'll be too late. Plenty of time for things to change though.

The storm has been on the charts for a while so it's definitely legit. But there's no room for error. The track has to be perfect and the storm has to bomb out because the antecedent airmass is garbage. I'd give it a 10% chance for us to score.

I'm not even gonna think about this until 3-4 days out. The signal for a storm is there though. Many things have to go right however.

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter.

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess. There's a good +PNA spike ahead of it that helps with the two branches phasing. GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now. A bombing coastal is one way to get snow in a poor airmass.

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. With a lot of luck something good could come out of this.

Next week was the potential some people highlighted with the Hudson bay block. They were correct in that regard. Of course none of that matters if the airmass isn't favorable. EPS looks a bit better though.

My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.

We're finally paying for all those blockbuster years though I don't think this winter will be a wash. Not looking forward to the cold later this week though. I'm already longing for spring after last weekend's beautiful weather.

As mild as the 1st half of Jan looks, the 2nd half could be record breaking. If those teleconnections are correct we'll likely have a large eastern ridge in place and for a very long time. Some signs of that already from today's models. A top 5 record warm January for parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast wouldn't surprise me.

Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination. Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes.

In hindsight these past few days have been very nice. A hoodie or light jacket is all you need. No need for bitter cold.

Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.

I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.

At least Alaska will finally turn frigid. Once the pattern reverses we might get a huge arctic blast 2nd half of January.

Many cited similarities to last year and so far it's pretty similar. I think we need a huge shake up to change this recurring pattern. We've been very fortunate over past 20 years so I'm done complaining about not getting another blockbuster winter. However I'm not looking forward to another cold, wet March/April which seems inevitable yet again.

We'll get our MECS/HECS in March and another crappy, blocky spring.

Feels like ever since last November mother nature's been screwing with city officials & they swallow the bait each time.

I think we'll get some Atlantic blocking that pairs well a few times with a so-so Pacific + climo to give us decent snows in January.

Wow was that well thought out. Good luck this season, hopefully it verifies a little more optimistic than you have particularly further south.

Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.