SnoSki14

It'll probably be an inch on grassy and colder surfaces, that's what the HRRR is indicating at least. There's still a pretty hefty chunk of moisture to go through.

MJO avoiding the warmer phases thus far, some have it looping around toward the better phases from the circle last week of December. This is noticeably different than last year which had it going through 4-6 and lingering there for weeks. This could be why a -AO/neutral NAO are showing up 2nd half of December. Personally I'm a fan of this progression and it's why January could be a surprisingly good month.

Like I said yesterday, we'd be lucky to get an inch. No change from that idea.

That's what happens when we get spoiled with KU after KU since 2000. You really start to lose your appreciation for them.

I think we'll be lucky to see an inch.

Another year, another pattern that trends in an unfavorable direction. At least you got the big storm recently, we're pretty much screwed down here for a very long time. A well timed SWFE may be the only thing that could save us as I highly doubt the anafrontal precip will work out. The blocking will probably wait till the end of the season aka March though it'd be nice if the atmosphere could act like a typical Nino and give us a good February for a change.

Overall the month probably won't be a torch but it won't be favorable for much snow either. The LR is a complete guessing game right now and it seems to change daily.

The -EPO tends to dump cold further west first then east. Seeing a soaring AO/NAO doesn't inspire much confidence. The past storm that dumped on SNE had a transitioning -NAO/AO or the complete opposite of what we're seeing now. Unless the -EPO/+PNA combo is very strong a la 2013 it won't be enough to overcome the lack of blocking. Our only chance would be a front-end dump from a well timed SWFE.

Very ugly and the GEFS are pretty much garbage after 5 days. Much higher skill in the EPS for the LR. Cutter pattern looks likely with cold/dry to warm/wet on repeat. +AO/NAO are of no help.

Really impressive cutter for Tue/Wed. Has like upper 60s and 50-60 mph gusts ahead of the front to 20s behind it.

I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility.

I'm not that impressed going forward. The -EPO will deliver transient cold shots but the positive AO/NAO will cause any system to cut and torch us unless we see a very strong -EPO/+PNA pattern like 2013. Currently models aren't showing anything that strong. EPS wasn't very good either and models are already backing off any major arctic blast. The MJO is another question mark, some models show it moving into the warmer phases but there might be resistance so we'll have to see. Best chance at something more favorable will be 3rd week of December. Overall the month should overall average AN on temps.

Could be a massive arctic outbreak if trends continue followed by a possible SWFE. Euro even has some -NAO ridging.

Models trying to kill the MJO before it gets to phase 3 instead of it freely traveling into the warmer phases like last December. Early signs of an arctic plunge that would easily deliver the coldest air of the season Dec 11-13. Still I'm a bit weary about this given the AO won't be in a hurry to turn negative.

EPS disagrees and it holds more merit than the GFS op runs. Doesn't look like a nonstop torch but it should overall be mild with transient cool shots thrown in. One caveat is the blocking Bluewave described and to an extent the +PNA, that should mitigate the warmth somewhat.

The primary is in the lower Midwest and it has to redevelop due to the 50/50 type low. It's not a lakes cutter at all. The secondary could even move ESE as it develops due to the strong confluence up north. The strong high to the north would lead to good surface cold as long as the track is favorable. Models will shift further south with this. Only issue is that the system could end up disjointed as the primary get shredded. Would really need the secondary to rapidly intensify for the storm to produce.

I think it be difficult to whiff but I do think the focus will be south of where it is now.

Yeah bc I'm sure the 150hr GFS will verify exactly like that. Suppression that far south is unlikely due to the very far north primary. A secondary coastal wouldn't get further south than the Delmarva.

South trend continues, not surprised at all. Euro should be interesting.

I don't think that solution should automatically be discounted. The low will have to get shunted one way or another. Just not sure where it happens.

The area did get screwed over last December with a system that was too far south, and given how eerily similar the pattern has been, more southerly trends wouldn't surprise me. That's a lot of troughiness over eastern Canada despite the dying block.

Models are trending further and further south with the coastal transfer. There's a legit 50/50 low in place though spread out & transient but if it ends up stronger then models will continue trending south.

Wow was that well thought out. Good luck this season, hopefully it verifies a little more optimistic than you have particularly further south.

Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.

Joe B. continues to be a complete joke. I remember him going on and on how there would be a big global cooling event for the 2010s and 20s. Every year he forecasts a big east coast winter and Northeast hurricanes. Occasionally he ends up right but so does a dead clock.