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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I think the Euro bias of hanging back the energy is on full display here. I'm favoring something in between GFS/Euro.
  2. SnoSki14
    If we lose the blocking then we're probably talking about a 11/12 type winter given the state of the MJO and Pacific pattern. Early/late season blocking was the only thing that stopped last season from being a complete disaster.
  3. SnoSki14
    Very mild pattern presented, so much for the late October cool down. Not that it matters for winter prospects given we're still well over a month away from wintry threats.
  4. SnoSki14
    I'd love to see that just one more time before AGW fully takes over. It's not impossible either, just ask the northern plains. However we'd have to get a major pattern reshuffle.
  5. SnoSki14
    But am I wrong though? Bc there's nothing to suggest the opposite right now. It might just be slightly AN instead of a full on torch. The -EPO will help with that.
  6. SnoSki14
    November to December looks mighty toasty, pretty much a continuation of the -PNA pattern with cold west, warm east.
  7. SnoSki14
    It's an AN pattern but probably not a death knell regarding snow chances. In fact a pattern like last season with more blocking would probably turn out ok. The -EPO should also give us some good arctic shots too.
  8. SnoSki14
    This has been the pattern for several winters now and it'll probably continue this season. Strong, transient blocking will be the only thing that can offset this. Hopefully things time right at least a few times this winter to give us some snow even if temps are AN overall.
  9. SnoSki14
    We should get some decent rain out of this, maybe a half inch or more. Pretty good given this was supposed to dodge us. And it's another clear indication that the dry, inactive pattern is over. Looks like plenty more to come later this week and then a potential gradient pattern that could make Halloween stormy.
  10. SnoSki14
    Models now trending away from the late October cool down despite a building PNA and -NAO/AO. Big cold dump out west struggles to make it here as weak SE ridge builds. Wouldn't be a terrible pattern for the winter though.
  11. SnoSki14
    Looks like a Nina pattern, definite gradient type look as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see those heights get squished out east if the blocking is strong enough. Warmth may be confined from Mid-Atlantic south.
  12. SnoSki14
    I'll admit the unpredictability is kinda fun.
  13. SnoSki14
    GFS has looked better than the Euro lately in terms of the overall pattern. Euro keeps popping these anomalous eastern ridges in the face of strong blocking, a forecast +PNA and a developing -EPO.
  14. SnoSki14
    Tell that to every pro/amateur forecaster and all private weather services.
  15. SnoSki14
    Given the developing -EPO and Atlantic blocking, November might actually turn out quite cold & dare I say snowy.
  16. SnoSki14
    Bc you know I'm right.
  17. SnoSki14
    I'm done playing the guessing game. We're getting never before seen configurations and past analogs are becoming less relevant. Just look at the disastrous winter forecasts of last year. I guess based on what I've seen thus far, a Nina pattern with spurts of Atlantic blocking make the most sense but who knows at this point.
  18. SnoSki14
    Really impressive system regardless of what happens. The HRRR has the secondary going from around 1000mbs to 975mb in less than 12 hrs, that's bombogenesis in half the time required. The low pressure would also set records in New England for October.
  19. SnoSki14
    Models/ensembles relax the strong Nina type pattern late October so we should see cooler air masses brush by us. The mean trough still looks to be west of us so it should be an active though not cold pattern.
  20. SnoSki14
    The EPS out to 10 days doesn't show that at all. It has the mean trough in the lakes.
  21. SnoSki14
    They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out.
  22. SnoSki14
    Holy crap with that block in fantasy range on 12z GFS. Would make for a crazy end to October/early November.
  23. SnoSki14
    So far I see a good consensus of a 2"+ widespread rainfall total with 3"+ isolated spots. Would be a nice way to end the dry spell.
  24. SnoSki14
    NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct.
  25. SnoSki14
    The nonstop Western troughiness stops temporarily. Halloween week could be on the cooler side.
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