SnoSki14

As it stands it would be foolish to dismiss the frozen threat. Models clearly show a cold surface/mid levels until the end. Very strong initial high with very low dews ahead of this thing with high trending stronger due to Thursdays system trending stronger and acting like a transient 50/50 low. This doesn't guarantee anything and a lot could change but that's what I'm seeing right now. Some semblance of last year's November storm.

Idk mid-levels are pretty cold throughout. I think a front thump to a cold light rain may be more likely. Gonna be tough to warm surface with strong high ahead and very low dews to start.

I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends.

Don't see how we wouldn't get 2-4" or more from the front end. Strong surface cold and pretty cold mid-levels to start too. HP is 1040+ before it weakens so some sort of CAD is likely too.

I've noticed that too, could it be tied to the MJO progression? Models really backed off on the strong cold too. Perhaps more signs that winter is in no hurry to come back.

Things don't really get more favorable until 1/20 and beyond. However I still wouldn't rule out a front end dump on the 18th given the strong high ahead of it.

That should eventually get to phase 8 instead of curling into the COD.

It literally feels like a June morning. 66F right now with 60 dews.

We could also go into a cold-cutter-cold pattern too like the GFS shows. That's the risk you run without blocking. Still thinking the sustained cold/snow pattern waits until February with shades of 14/15 showing up.

Honestly that front end bout could give us more snow than anything we've seen this winter. Airmass is quite cold so a CAD like inversion wouldn't surprise me and neither would a southward primary adjustment.

I'd be stunned if March was anything but cold & snowy. Really think the -EPO/+PNA will do a hand-off to the -NAO/AO sometime in February.

Today may hit 70F, it's already 63F before 1030

The departures are gonna be ridiculous by 1/20. Insane warmth coming up and yet somehow I feel more confident there'll be a big flip soon. Euro still not as cold in the LR as GFS is though...makes sense given its MJO wave progression.

I'd be shocked if temps didn't overperform this weekend. If there's breaks in the cloud cover then we'll see 70s.

The crazy high departures almost makes it more likely that we'll flip given the extreme climate we're in.

Things definitely look much more promising than a few days ago. We're actually seeing more of a Nino atmospheric response which in typical Nino fashion results in a colder 2nd half. Last year we saw a massive SSW event that constructively interfered with the typical modoki Nino progression, which delayed the cold till March. MJO Phase 7 looking likely now and it should progress into 8 eventually.

If you're using the GFS then you're gonna get burnt. Euro is much milder.

Wow impressive cold out west is likely. Places like Montana could see -30F or lower temps. Even out towards Seattle could see highs in the teens & 20s with snow possible. Some signs a chunk of that may get here eventually though I remain skeptical of what the GFS shows.

You also have to consider the lagged response, which is why I favor mid Feb for colder weather. This assumes the wave keeps progressing and doesn't slow down in 6/7. If it does slow down then the cold would arrive late Feb and into March, which lines up with our late winter/early spring cold/snow of the past decade.

Just wait till the weekend, completely absurd departures possible. We may see a 70F reading under cloudy skies in mid January...that's insane.

This is the reality that some don't seem to understand. I think any significant change is still weeks away. We'll see if the MJO will push through. My thoughts are that latter Feb and March probably end up colder than normal similar to past few years. There's a nice source region of cold building to our north that should impact us eventually. Marches, like Novembers, have also skewed colder over the past several years.

Going off a day 11-15 ensemble is not something I'd depend on. The only thing that's been verifying is a stronger than progged SE ridge and I don't see that changing with the highly unfavorable Pacific & MJO. Any colder than normal weather won't happen until Feb assuming the MJO doesn't get stuck. Feb will likely be much colder than Jan (not difficult if January is +6 or better) though it could still be AN. I like raindancewx's analysis about how the months are mimicking what we saw in late summer and fall.

Of course JB is now using 1993 as his top analog after his disastrous January cold call. We'd be very lucky to see that show up later in Feb/March. A lot of that will depend on the MJO. If it gets stuck or even circles back then we're done. If it gets into phase 7-1 then winter will return.

You know it's bad when people get excited over a coating/dusting. Spring can't get here fast enough.

There was always a threat of a storm in this timeframe and we often see storms prior to a major pattern change. However the pattern is very progressive so this one could easily skip through and give us zilch (see 06z GFS).