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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Not surprised.
  2. SnoSki14
    Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night.
  3. SnoSki14
    Nah I'll pass. It would be another kick in the nuts after a horrendous winter. I hope it's warm and sunny.
  4. SnoSki14
    At least it's helping the Arctic this season. Maybe that'll help us out in the future. This year however looks toast and I'm 100% ready for warm spring-like weather.
  5. SnoSki14
    Wow just got a severe thunderstorm warning alert.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's been atrocious, I think it may even be worse than 01/02 & 11/12 for me. I had like 4" total so far with every month Dec-Feb above normal, a torch Jan & Feb looking likely. Zero full days of snow cover. If March doesn't save the day then I'll be ranking this winter as the worst I've ever experienced. I'm not as angry about it as I'd normally be. Eventually you just kinda accept it and move on. I just pray spring doesn't turn to sh*t.
  7. SnoSki14
    These things change daily. We won't know the reality for at least 2 weeks or after Feb 20. Truth is the pattern will remain locked in until seasonal changes come into play.
  8. SnoSki14
    Very strong wording on the wind potential from Mt. Holly. They mention sting-jet and gusts near hurricane force for coastal sections. Not good with wet soils and unfrozen ground. GFS continued to amp things up in latest run. Looks like sub 970 just north of the area.
  9. SnoSki14
    Agree, shocked how much forecasts are underplaying this. People will be waking up to quite a surprise.
  10. SnoSki14
    I think so, it's gonna be near 60 tomorrow morning. Very strong CAA as low passes through and good mixing with the sun trying to break out. I think the NWS is downplaying this with only 50mph max gusts
  11. SnoSki14
    I'll take my chances with a slider in this time frame. Granted the pattern isn't favorable for any type of snow event with the AO set to hit new records and such.
  12. SnoSki14
    Wow at the Nam, very sting-jet like. That's widespread 50-60+mph gusts if it's correct. Temps near 60F ahead of the front with steep lapse rates for nice transfer potential.
  13. SnoSki14
    CMC follows the deepening low trend, 969mb just north of the city. Has period of very strong gusts (60mph+) especially on LI and coastal sections as low passes through.
  14. SnoSki14
    The PNA loses relevance after Feb 20. In fact snowstorms in the east are more common under -PNA from late Feb through March. I'm more interested to see if the AO/NAO flips by then as they're still relevant until late March.
  15. SnoSki14
    Latest GFS looks even lower at 970 near same spot.
  16. SnoSki14
    Looks fairly active for next few weeks, wouldn't be surprised if we flip to above normal before month ends.
  17. SnoSki14
    Agree probably closer to 60-65mph for parts of LI.
  18. SnoSki14
    All of the LR ensemble runs have been garbage. Im actually more optimistic that they're showing garbage in the long run. March isn't gonna torch though as much as some wish it did. This is a repeating pattern with cold Nov/March and warm to record breaking Jan/Feb.
  19. SnoSki14
    Mt. Holly now strongly indicating most of NJ at least should get into wind advisory criteria with 45-50mph gusts.
  20. SnoSki14
    Models keep trending stronger with this, latest NAM is quite a doozy for the area. Not very often we see a sub 975 intensifying low pass through the city.
  21. SnoSki14
    Models indicating a possible sting jet as the low passes by us while rapidly intensifying. Wind advisories likely behind the system with potential for more.
  22. SnoSki14
    The EPO will be flipping negative and that will initially favor the west. The effects of a -PNA diminish substantially after Feb 20 and I could see the west & east both stay cold. Blocking will likely build too.
  23. SnoSki14
    Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.
  24. SnoSki14
    I sense an extreme reversal of the record breaking +AO/NAO pattern. Extreme flips are the new normal. Expect a few snowy nor'easters and bitterly cold temps for March. Enjoy!
  25. SnoSki14
    We've had serious February torches (record breaking) only to completely reverse in March. With the AO setting new + records this month and the prolonged +NAO/AO since December it would be surprising if it didn't swing the other way soon. We've had many extreme flips lately there's no middle ground anymore and things look a lot more active than 2011-2012 which was one of the few winter torches that never flipped. 92-93 is a decent analog.
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