SnoSki14

A lot of our biggest snow events occurred when the wave collapsed in the circle. I think we have a better shot at blocking when the MJO isn't in control. My guess is that the PV starts taking shots after 1st week of February. Idk if a SSW will occur but it doesn't necessarily have to for us to go into a blocking pattern. The long standing +NAO/AO will have to eventually reverse too but that probably won't happen until we see seasonal effects with changing wavelengths + the attacks on the PV. Late winter remains the best opportunity for us to get snows especially if the Nino subtropical jet sticks around.

It could go one of two ways, either it follows the early 2010s warm/dry March pattern or the cold/snowy late 2010s pattern. Given the identical resemblance to last year, Nino status, MJO, NAO/AO parameters from Oct till now & a cold November/near normal December and now warm Jan/Feb? it seems more likely we'll follow the late 2010s pattern. We'll have to see if a SSW event starts showing up by mid Feb as that would guarantee a cold/blocky March/April.

You guys will see 20-30+" from Feb 15 through April 1st. Expect a massive Greenland block after mid February into March. The pattern is following the same beats as past several seasons.

Yeah it's been wonderful. A ruined winter followed by a ruined early spring. I guess snow is snow even if it's gone the next day though those 4 March noreasters from a few years back were fun to track. Too bad the big 1/20 pattern change barely produced.

The MJO should be a non-factor at such low amplitudes & as it remains in the circle. However agree that it may emerge anywhere from 8-2 by mid Feb. We've seen a mostly sustained +NAO/AO period which will almost surely flip in about a month or so. I suppose we could follow years like 11/12 where spring takes hold early but that doesn't fit the current regime.

Well climo isn't working for us now and our biggest snows have recently been in November/March.

Yeah I buy the coastal flooding risks.

Very odd pattern for this time of year. Euro looks like early spring with semi cut-off low pressure systems scouring across the southern US. The only places that'll see BN temperatures are parts of the south due to clouds/rain. There's zero arctic transport so the best you could hope for is a bombing system & perfect track and even that may not do it.

Next week was the potential some people highlighted with the Hudson bay block. They were correct in that regard. Of course none of that matters if the airmass isn't favorable. EPS looks a bit better though.

That's a hail Mary type of threat late next week. Very little cold air but the track may not be terrible. Could be good for New England where they have more breathing room. +PNA & MJO passing thru 7 likely helps. Afterwards the MJO basically stays in the circle. I'm in favor of it popping out near 8 after Feb 10 with lagged impacts 10-14 days later. Early forecasts show it starting that loop as we begin Feb. Should set the stage for a late winter comeback Feb 20 through March.

With temps in the 40s? There's no cold air in sight. Doesn't matter if the track is good if we have a rotting Pacific airmass in place.

Massive -NAO is equally possible like past few years and I strongly favor it.

JB is looking more stupid each passing day. He said 93/94 and 14/15 was coming in Feb. What a joke! Oh well on to late Feb/March for our next snowstorm. I predict a massive Greenland block as we enter March.

And it's been garbage.

Mt. Holly agrees. Looks like a snow to rain system for most.

My belief is that in due time everyone will transition over simply from market forces alone. Not sure when we'll get to net zero emissions but there's always a new breakthrough on the horizon nuclear fusion being the holy grail of them all. That doesn't mean the transition period won't be rough though. I think a lot of lives will be lost and trillions of dollars from weather related disasters will be commonplace for a few decades before everything stabilizes. I don't think it'll be the end of the world as some proclaim.

3-4" would be like a HECS this season. Nice to see things trend positively as we get close to the event for once.

It's a day 9/10 system, why are we even arguing about temps.

Doesn't look like it'll enter 8 though. Seems it goes through 7 and dies off in circle or stay in 6/7 at very low amplitudes.

That's a point a lot of people either ignore or worse. I believe the US/Europe contribute 15% of all emissions & are gradually declining while China/India/Russia do the rest and they're rising. Even if the US/Europe were to go net zero we'd still have a global problem. Unless those countries change, nothing will change.

Good forecast so far by Iso. Can't argue with majority of snowfall falling in late Feb/March.

That would be nice. At least models didn't destroy the snow threat this time.

This will likely be our last shot at snow for awhile so enjoy it. I think 1-3" remains a good call with higher amounts N&W of the city. It'll feel like winter for a change.

Yeah everytime there's promise it keeps getting pulled back. Even the current cold shot is much less severe than initially expected and then we're back in the 40s and 50s next week. I should've stuck with my late Feb to March winter comeback prediction because so far everything has gone just as bad as last season (worse in fact).

If only they were reliable. Last season they were a disaster.