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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    There are zero indications that this will be anything like 87 or 89. Also the last several Novembers were colder than normal and we've had great winters. The Oct/Nov combo thus far along with the well AN Precip and November snow event are all screaming that this will be a very snowy winter.
  2. SnoSki14
    This is for the storms after Thanksgiving and prior to the Nov 29 period.
  3. SnoSki14
    Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility. However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air.
  4. SnoSki14
    2013 & 2014 were quite the banner years for cold recently. That -EPO has been doing wonders for November cold. The snow cover to our north will aide with the Arctic shot too, I fully expect teens in the suburbs.
  5. SnoSki14
    Pattern looks incredible, obviously that doesn't mean a huge snow event will occur but the chances are much higher than normal. Starting to see OP runs correct to the projected blocking pattern with plenty of hints at big storms as well.
  6. SnoSki14
    You just know for the next system, no matter how minor it is, that officials will overcompensate and probably waste a lot of resources for no reason. It happens every time.
  7. SnoSki14
    NAM is a broken clock but it does do very well in CAD situations when temps mean everything. Euro was also hinting at a much snowier solution than forecast.
  8. SnoSki14
    In the past people always make fun of how over hyped the snow situation tends to be, but what yesterday showed is that over hype is not necessarily a bad thing. Better be safe than sorry. IMO NJ preparations were much worse than elsewhere. I spoke to many people and they all said the roads were not pre-treated and plows were non-existent.
  9. SnoSki14
    Guess a low sun angle couldn't stop the snow from melting. Just like March snows, it was here yesterday and gone today.
  10. SnoSki14
    Getting some 40+ mph gusts right now.
  11. SnoSki14
    Few saw any plows, many roads were not pretreated and we had many bigger, colder storms hit during rush hour that were nowhere near this impactful.
  12. SnoSki14
    Complete disaster for the area, huge fail on part of officials. How did they not prepare for this at all. And it's not like we live in Atlanta, we've seen 40"+ snow seasons, this was completely inexcusable.
  13. SnoSki14
    2012 was better for me but this is a close second. Winds really starting to gust now. Wouldn't be surprised to see advisory gusts with the rapidly intensifying low.
  14. SnoSki14
    Looks like we will get our warm up after Thanksgiving. It probably won't be very mild but we'll definitely see more 50s or better before December. The -NAO is going to have to wait until the Pacific turns more favorable before it has an impact.
  15. SnoSki14
    Those low dews were a huge indicator that we would get more than expected. Close to 4" now.
  16. SnoSki14
    Sleet mixing in now after 2" of snow.
  17. SnoSki14
    Quickly approaching two inches down near Old Bridge.
  18. SnoSki14
    Moderate snow, 31F surfaces covered. Very breezy as well.
  19. SnoSki14
    Coming down nicely, first snow of the season. Dews are still in the mid 20s. Already seeing grass whiten up.
  20. SnoSki14
    Very rough rush hour commute likely, snow/sleet could last towards evening. Also first winter event of the season for many always has its challenges for drivers.
  21. SnoSki14
    Probably a snow/sleet combo but I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be accurate. Dews are unusually low right now, which means we could stay frozen for longer than expected. HRRR actually doesn't even change us over to rain, instead it just dry slots the area which is also possible given proximity to low.
  22. SnoSki14
    990mb low just offshore is nothing to sneeze at. Morning timing also helps. Additionally, no need to be upset if this is a bust, any frozen precip in Nov is hard to come by. I think we average like 0.5"
  23. SnoSki14
    Nam looks great for NW sections. Dews are noticeably dry (teens) and highs today only hit 40-41 despite a ton of sunshine early (indicators of strong, cold high pressure). I do think surface temps will be on the colder side, and it'll be pretty close call honestly near the city.
  24. SnoSki14
    That's a potent upper level low Friday morning, wonder if we could see some dynamic back-end snows from it.
  25. SnoSki14
    If that's the case then we'd probably see more sleet or freezing rain before things warm up. Mid-level will torch in a hurry. However it's not the best CAD setup, that high is weakening fast and scooting eastward. I see a mid 30s cold rain setup.
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