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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Really impressive coastal flooding given the relative benign strength of the system. Awful timing with the tides and moon cycle too. Thank goodness this wasn't some monster system that models initially showed. Sandy Hook clearing major too, highest since Sandy and Irene.
  2. SnoSki14
    No it doesn't, rapid expansion of snow cover in October has been correlated with strong periods of -AO in the winter, which promotes cold and snowy weather. If you look at the chart, some of the highest snow cover years included 2014 and 2009, two cold/snowy winters. The worst was 2011, which happened to be the worst winter in recent memory.
  3. SnoSki14
    The Nam was really impressive, HWW criteria for sure. I'd definitely take the mesos over the globals in terms of accuracy, the Gfs is not going to pick up on this stuff.
  4. SnoSki14
    Very active potentially with large trough in central US.
  5. SnoSki14
    CMC and Euro are quite potent. Both are stronger and a bit slower than the Gfs with a good chance at 2"+ rain amounts for someone and some really strong winds along the coasts (easily 40-60 mph). EPS nearly identical to Op run, could mean the low ends up a bit stronger.
  6. SnoSki14
    Euro looked quite potent, it does really well with these Miller A type tracks. AN SSTs and a tropical connection probably ensures some 50-60 mph gusts are probable. We'll have to see what the trends will show.
  7. SnoSki14
    I too think winds will be stronger near the coast due to some tropical influences though it depends on the track. For bigger coastal impacts, you'd want the low to curve NW into the coast rather than offshore. If the high get as strong as models predict then storm will have to slow down as well and crawl north.
  8. SnoSki14
    Nobody in the area would have seen snow. Maybe the highest elevations in the Poconos would have gotten flakes and that's about it. This was always going to be a rain event for everyone unless you go far into Northern New England.
  9. SnoSki14
    Agree that the pressure gradient is quite strong not to mention the storm will have integrated Willa's remnants so rainfall could be heavier than shown. For coastals, gradient is more important than just low strength, I've seen 960s to 970s lows not even give us advisory winds. April 2007 comes to mind.
  10. SnoSki14
    NYC will beat 95/96, SSTs + Weak/Moderate Nino + Near solar minimum + well AN precip this year + recent record breaking weather will fuel at least 2 massive storms. 60-75"+ for the metro December: AN Temps, AN Precip with 5-10" January: BN Temps, AN Precip with 20-25" February: Well BN Temps, Well AN Precip with 30-35" March: BN Temps, Near normal Precip with 5-10"
  11. SnoSki14
    31F. First time below freezing, some upper 20s nearby. Large gradient with temps anywhere from 28-40F.
  12. SnoSki14
    We might get a freeze tonight but if not then it's likely to happen Wednesday/Thursday night.
  13. SnoSki14
    CMC is a powerhouse storm and track for late October but that model is also terrible. Still it's looking more and more likely that we'll see a big storm next weekend.
  14. SnoSki14
    Warmer Nov/Dec is common in Nino's though guidance is still on the fence about December.
  15. SnoSki14
    Gfs is all over the place after Day 5, really represents the chaotic nature of the upcoming pattern. First -NAO pattern since last spring.
  16. SnoSki14
    It's still highly likely that we'll see a storm. Models will hone that in by early next week.
  17. SnoSki14
    42F, first 30s since early Spring looking likely. Will probably bottom out around 34-35F.
  18. SnoSki14
    Euro is similar going out to next Saturday. Very rare for this level of agreement 9+ days out. Potential for a very strong storm is there if everything phases in, even some tropical connections are possible.
  19. SnoSki14
    I feel like they'll be plenty of twists this year and I think something closer to 2002 is possible.
  20. SnoSki14
    Storm force bomb on the gfs.
  21. SnoSki14
    First time I'm seeing a -NAO signal pop up in months. Late October has been a prime hotspot for storminess and I'd be shocked if we don't see something significant.
  22. SnoSki14
    Widespread frost looks likely for interior areas for the middle of next week. Current forecast is upper 30s but could trend lower.
  23. SnoSki14
    Yes it was awful, thank goodness most places received 1-2" (2.25"+ locally). Looks like S/E NJ had 3-5".
  24. SnoSki14
    Pouring right now, must be over 0.5".
  25. SnoSki14
    Heavy convective blow up to the NW down in northern VA.
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