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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I noticed the CMC is more amped than the GFS because of the way it handles Mondays wave. I'd be willing to forego Monday if we get a bomb on Wednesday.
  2. SnoSki14
    The thing about blocking patterns is that they're very stable. I don't anticipate a lot of changes between now and then regarding track.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's a very strong shortwave interacting with strong confluent flow. Pretty ideal MECS setup honestly.
  4. SnoSki14
    I wonder if the NAO will be as persistent this time around as it has been in the spring months. The first step would be for the coming systems to bring the goods. Nina's with good Decembers typically fair well.
  5. SnoSki14
    Very true. About a week ago everything looked hopeless with the Nina ridge returning. Can you imagine if the CMC ends up being correct, talk about a giant hammer to all the doom and gloom wall to wall torch winter forecasts.
  6. SnoSki14
    Best to go with GEFS/EPS until it gets closer. 6-7 days is still a long time and OP runs are gonna jump around. I wouldn't stress on the details just yet.
  7. SnoSki14
    Where did that big Siberian/Arctic block come from? There was nothing there a few days ago.
  8. SnoSki14
    We lose the PNA so there'll be a tendency for storms to cut. That's guaranteed if the Atlantic blocking isn't as strong as forecast though the progressive nature of the Pacific driven pattern could offset that to an extent.
  9. SnoSki14
    EPS showing stronger Atlantic blocking and starts to bring the PNA back a bit, which would make it less likely for systems to cut. Airmass is still meh but Canada looks cold.
  10. SnoSki14
    The upcoming pattern isn't that bad at all. It's a lot better than I expected given all the doom and gloom forecasts.
  11. SnoSki14
    Oh god you know all the Twitter weenies are going to post the CMC.
  12. SnoSki14
    The pattern is like a poor man's version of 2010. There's decent Atlantic blocking but not strong enough to overcome the poor Nina Pacific.
  13. SnoSki14
    Light snow falling
  14. SnoSki14
    Bluewave always with the accurate response to rain on the weenie parade. Pacific puke looks to dominate rest of the month. We'd have to be lucky to score with such a putrid airmass over us. Odds would improve in January.
  15. SnoSki14
    The Dec 13-20 could give us something. Like a SWFE with a late coastal transfer, SNE is in a better position than us of course.
  16. SnoSki14
    The Pacific is much more important for cold & snow than the Atlantic, that's always been the case. I'd rather have a -EPO/+PNA with a +AO/NAO. However having a -AO/NAO at least gives an accidental chance of getting snow even if the Pacific is garbage.
  17. SnoSki14
    We'll probably have record high cover in March or April lol
  18. SnoSki14
    You can add the rogue SNE hurricane to that list too.
  19. SnoSki14
    I think if late Dec through late Jan can't give us anything then we'll probably challenge the record low snowfall years. However a crazy squall (possible given the high winter lapse rates we've seen lately) could easily drop a quick inch.
  20. SnoSki14
    NYC is still at 40-41
  21. SnoSki14
    Except it wasn't that close. Temps were in the low 40s all night. It's not like it was mid 30s and rain.
  22. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get too caught up on things. Models have been shifting like crazy lately. It's also highly unlikely to be locked in. I do like that ensembles continue to show a +PNA and some blocking in the NAO/AO regions. That could be good come January with much more favorable climo.
  23. SnoSki14
    Because we only average 20-25" and are near sea level plus the background warming state. Blocking has also been mostly absent which is critical for anyone south of 41N. There's been years where we've gotten basically nothing like the early & late 90s and 80s. Years like 2010-11 and multiple snowy years from 2000-2018 are anomalies.
  24. SnoSki14
    Seeing how difficult it is to get a snowstorm here makes you appreciate all the snowstorms in the 2000s & 2010s Just think about what it takes to get it right. Perfect track, cold air supply, PNA, blocking, 50/50 low, etc. and you could have all those things and have the storm miss you by 50 miles. The difficulty will only increase with AGW making our climate more and more like Virginia.
  25. SnoSki14
    There's still time for changes to be made. I quite like the Dec 8th setup actually. It would be nice if this pattern could repeat in late Dec and Jan.
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