SnoSki14

Record warm November coming up? Massive long lasting ridge in the east likely with tropics active well into the month.

Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow.

1st half mild with a transition to colder 2nd half looks probable imo.

Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.

That's pretty much a given. Very good chance it ends up much stronger than forecast. In addition ensembles show an additional Caribbean storm or two in the days ahead. I think an ACE above 160 is very likely when all is said and done.

Enjoy the mild winter then.

I wouldn't mind another mild snow-free winter. Lower bills, no traffic jams/accidents, no shoveling, no frigid weather. Not a bad ask.

Looks nice and warm for the foreseeable future.

We're going to roast this winter again.

Should be interesting to watch nonetheless. Strong WAR could mean this ends up close to the coast but many days out of course.

We're really feeling the AGW effects now. It seems as though 2015/2016 was a tipping point with the mega Nino. I think every winter from this point on will be warm/wet or warm/dry. Snow will be unlikely but not impossible as years like 2016/2017 could still happen. However this year will likely be another 2011/2012 style winter.

GFS has consistently been showing a Caribbean hurricane that eventually goes up the east coast. Strong WAR pattern would support such a track.

I think something like 2016-2017 is possible.

So there's some hope winter won't be dead this year?

At what point is blizzard just gonna admit he's a climate change denier so we can move on. And there's no point arguing with one. You can cite 1000s of examples and debunk every claim they make and they'll still come up with some nonsense. The fact is that the earth is rapidly warming mostly due to human related activities. Even when factoring in every natural cause, there's still a ton of excess warmth that could only be caused by humans. CO2 PPM levels went from 240 to 420+ since the industrial revolution, which is exactly when the long term warming trends began...it's not a coincidence. Some 99.7% of the 11K+ scientists agree. The only ones that don't have been proven to have interests in the fossil fuel industry. If you still reject all this then you're simply a denier who either has some vested interest in the fossil fuel industry or is just some edgy anti-science contrairian, which we def don't need more of.

Is it odd that I feel better about the coming winter when all the forecasts show a snowless torch winter. It's like playing with house money.

If it meets the definition of a TC then it should get a name no matter how weak, sloppy or short-lived it's expected to be.

To its credit it did spot the phase and curl NW into Canada that models are now catching onto. Hopefully it plays out that way as it will likely generate massive swells just offshore.

The GFS was trending synoptically towards the Euro.

Most likely a disappointment though hopefully it'll come close enough for some big swells.

Euro seems pretty convinced of that cutoff and blocking high. There's also a clear SW trend with the cutoff. I don't think Teddy will get that far west because of how far east it is to begin with but it's an intriguing setup nonetheless.

Something could develop off the SE coast next week under the large high in the northeast. Models hinting that could become a coastal storm or subtropical storm as it moves north.

It's like talking to a brick wall. You could present 1000s of examples and they'll make an excuse for all of them. Don't waste your breath.

This sucker is poised to be a major (3rd after Paulette) and I have zero doubt it'll impact the US eventually but all those island interactions will complicate things.

That would be the one to watch. The other one near Bermuda should be a nice wave maker if it gets to major status. PNA expected to tank which means strong ridging building out east.