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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Models are playing catch-up in the opposite direction now. If that Scandinavian blocking gets any more widespread then it would really temper the late November warm-up. They've also been too quick to break down the western/Alaskan ridging. It's not out of the realm of possibility that November ends up BN despite the record warm start.
  2. SnoSki14
    I would love for his forecast to verify, it's been a while since we had a great December. Almost unanimous agreement that February will rock. Dec-Jan are the toss-ups, forecasters either have Dec cold and snowy or January but not both.
  3. SnoSki14
    First 20s of the season.
  4. SnoSki14
    Models are hinting at another big storm Fri/Sat that might have some tropical influences from the disturbance located east of the lesser Antilles. Before that, Tuesday could deliver 1-2" but if that low shifts further west then higher amounts are possible. This will be a much larger, wetter, and stronger system than yesterday. Very active November pattern likely to continue.
  5. SnoSki14
    That's what happens when blocking is non-existent.
  6. SnoSki14
    Another win for the Euro and a lot more rain for us.
  7. SnoSki14
    Euro op completely loses the cold and cuts even more inland with next week's system. OP runs have been all over the place lately with tremendous variations and inconsistencies from run to run. Guess that's the Nino/Nina influences still battling each other.
  8. SnoSki14
    I agree that surface temps will still average BN for that period given averages are in the 50s. Regardless, I'm not worried because November is not a winter month.
  9. SnoSki14
    Euro moves the cold in and out for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Gfs does too though it lingers a bit more. Just going off the OP runs here. It makes sense given the more unfavorable teleconnections for 2nd half of November.
  10. SnoSki14
    Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season?
  11. SnoSki14
    November coming in with a bang, very active last few days. Big difference from early October. A lot of rain still to come with even more rain Friday.
  12. SnoSki14
    The CFS literally shows the opposite of what's going to happen, it's unbelievable how inaccurate it is.
  13. SnoSki14
    Got rid of that late week cutter, looks like a transient but very cold shot of air. We saw something like this last year that obliterated any plant left standing. There's a legit shot at some snow too near mid-month. It's almost that time of year where threats are worth looking at.
  14. SnoSki14
    How funny would it be if we saw a 01/02 type winter after all these high end predictions.
  15. SnoSki14
    Gfs doesn't delay the cold as much, could be the Euro slow bias in play. However a delay wouldn't surprise me, that's been the story for months now.
  16. SnoSki14
    All of the action is out west, very uneventful. HRRR shows almost nothing in eastern half of NJ. Wet pattern has stabilized big time, October was even slightly below normal.
  17. SnoSki14
    That's nice and all though I do miss the front loaded stuff of a 10/11. As great as March was last year we missed out on a lot because of how late in the winter it was. Hopefully we see a repeat of that pattern a month earlier.
  18. SnoSki14
    It's unbelievable mild considering the completely overcast skies. I've never seen that before. Usually it wouldn't get higher than the upper 60s, it's 72F now.
  19. SnoSki14
    You mean how no one would see 50+ with the last storm (coast saw 60-65+). Granted this is a much different setup but those forecast offices know better than most.
  20. SnoSki14
    74F, almost a record
  21. SnoSki14
    Incredible, just as warm as October was.
  22. SnoSki14
    Highs in the 70s showing up in SNE for those days, very close to record. It's 8-9 days minimum of AN temps, first 10 days will average anywhere from +8 to +10 (or better).
  23. SnoSki14
    You can call the next 10 days a seasonal transition but it's pretty much just a torch. Gfs shows several days with +10 or better departures for most of the northeast and it's on par with the first half of October warmth. The difference is that it's much stormier.
  24. SnoSki14
    Gfs looks just as warm now for the first 10 days of November as it was in October. Several strong cutters making things very stormy.
  25. SnoSki14
    It looks accurate though I don't know about record pace with the trough in the central US. There's also been a notable decrease in ssts off the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast, so I don't believe the WAR will over perform like in past months.
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