Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season.
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Social media has made this hobby brutal. All sort of garbage out there that you have to sift through. Always look at "what could go wrong" It will temper expectations.
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JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO" Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's. This could be one of them but let's hope not. The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy....
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People hear what they want to hear. The pattern was still in the day 10-15 range which is way out there and subject to drastic changes....
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December 2010 had a temp departure of almost -5. I didn't realize it was that cold but as Bluewave noted we did not have the warm pool of water off the east coast back then. That certainly changes the equation....
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Not sure why some are giving play by play on OP runs at day 8 10 and beyond (not just here but elsewhere)
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It's better than the CMC but I would not buy into ANY OP model past day 5 or 6 tops.
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CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays....
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I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up...
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First 2 weeks look to be above normal. Question is the last 2 weeks-any further delay in the pattern could lead to an above normal month or if we get a "Warm" NAO block like Dec 1996.
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Difficult to get cold Decembers with that warm water off the coast...A met once said "hit and hold cold" on the east coast is tough with warm water early on, but later in the winter it's our friend with fuel for nor easters etc
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yeah I don't get the play by play on day 7 or even day 10 OP model runs...
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Supression could be an issue if the blocking is too much...
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yeah unlike some other years (2014, 2020) where we had the snow/cold early/mid month and then we got the usual xmas torch, this time frame looks better for the white xmas
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It was terribly modeled too-the night before, it was forecast to crush DCA to PHL and then turn to rain for NYC and points east. Instead it shutout places SW of Philly they woke up to partly cloudy skies-meanwhile it was all snow for most of us here with a turn to rain in RI/eastern MA. Winters of 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00 were awful. Brutal stretch. 01-02 and 11-12 were bad but they were surrounded by good winters so took the bite off.
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There's always a chance of nothing. It's early and water temps are warm.... Some great patterns don't produce....
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So far meh here...gusts into the 30's
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he's saying snows would be further south. Too much blocking and it's congrats DC
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Yep exactly what happened in Dec 2010. That storm came as the pattern relaxed-we torched a bit after that before it reloaded around 1/10 or so.
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hopefully not too much blocking or northern parts of the subforum could be in trouble. 12/19/09 was a good example of that...
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suspended for trolling pro mets
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I think they did-but it was at night. Anything that fell during the day was white rain....
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It does seem that when we see blocking in December we tend to see it again later in the winter....
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Totally get it and thank you for your great posts here of late-agree it does look similar. I meant more in a general sense as we've moved through the last few winters I see these analogs posted alot on twitter etc....
