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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    For cold storms like this, you’re gonna beat 10 to 1 unless you are on the northern edge where it will be arctic sand. So prob something in between the 10 to 1 and the Kuchie maps. Typical cold storm climo is somewhere in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range…but obviously that can go much higher or lower depending on where the lift is focused.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Icon leaves energy behind which caps it. Prob more like a 8-14” type event. Ideally you want to keep most of the energy intact but at the same time not amp it too quickly so you can prolong the overrunning portion…then when the rest of it dives in from the backside of the trough, you blow up a coastal which turns it into a KU type storm. That’s threading the needle a bit there but it’s well within the possibilities.
  3. ORH_wxman
    It’s a pretty extreme setup. The thermals are optimal for wringing out a lot of moisture. In a more standard setup, you’d prob keep it more conservative if you didn’t much coastal/CCB stuff. But this is a prolonged overrunning with higher end WAA/Isentropic glide so you can do very well from that alone.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we could slam 10-15” alone from the overrunning if you push that north a bit more. But we’d def need a CCB type sig to get going if you want KU type totals over 20”.
  5. ORH_wxman
    My mom would sometimes bribe the street plow guy in ORH with a $10 bill to get our driveway in storms circa early/mid 1990s. In bigger ones you might have to go with a 20. Before we got a snowblower at my current place, we got a guy to get our driveway for 40 bucks in March 2018…that was a pretty good price even then. That was pre-inflation though.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I can’t remember the last time it was this cold right before a major storm hit. Maybe Jan 2005. Jan 1996 was up there too for cold intensity. Both had highs around 10F the day before. This might be even colder though. Most guidance keeps single digits for highs on Saturday over interior.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I’m just messing around. I don’t care if you’re worried about it. I honestly don’t think it’s worth getting worried about though this early. It’s a first world problem anyway….we could be staring at nothing on the horizon as an alternative like the last few years.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Ray is already thinking about Coke streamers on Cape Ann while he chokes on exhaust so it’s throwing him on tilt.
  9. ORH_wxman
    We’re talking about ineedsnow
  10. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully all the air being drawn in through the bellows of your accordion causes perfect phasing out west and produces a couple feet here.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he’ll go “meh” if it shows 6-10” for him while SE is 10-14” but then just go absolutely wild with pages and pages of posts if mesos are showing a little N ORH county jack on a 2” paste event while everyone else is getting nothing or coatings.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I think he’s more excited for 1-3” tonight than the Sunday/Monday storm
  13. ORH_wxman
    It could prob come far enough north to cause mixing in SNE but I don’t think this could ever become a true cutter with that type of confluence to the north and northeast. You have blocking in the Atlantic side albeit not excessive, but that puts a cap on this…add in the fact that it’s a true arctic airmass, that also plays a role
  14. ORH_wxman
    Getting his mojo back after Jan 18-19. He was put through the wringer the last 4 years.
  15. ORH_wxman
    All joking aside there’s gonna be good enhancement on the coast with such a frigid airmass in place.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Coke streamers for Scooter on that one.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euro Skynet goes wild and bombs the secondary S of LI/BID
  18. ORH_wxman
    Here’s EPS….doesnt really capture all of it though since it’s longer than 24h
  19. ORH_wxman
    Way better look at h5 though with significant phasing out west. It kind of squirts just a little east at the end but it’s a much higher end look a couple panels before that.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s clown range NAM but that looked pretty ominous with all that energy coming together out west. This is one of those rare times we’re rooting for more phasing out west.
  21. ORH_wxman
    That’s gonna be a tough pill to swallow if he gets 9” and ASH is putting up a 10 burger.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can organize one for later this week if the threat keeps escalating….once we’re in NAM range. Start the show at 9-930 and go for a couple hours.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Last one I did I think was Jan 2016. I’m not sure we’ve had one since then. Usually had to be Mid-Atlantic big time threat and we haven’t had a huge one since then. I always thought we should do New England ones but not that we’ve had much to track the last few years.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Wes Junker would come on too. I think RaleighWx came on once or twice too.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s capturing the sfc at 144 and redeveloping significant precip over New England. Even into NNE
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