ORH_wxman

Watch the 00z euro verify now.

We had this a few times last year…models becoming more divergent inside of 4 days. Seeing the euro go so flat at 06z to almost whiffing and then seeing monster amped solutions at the same time from other guidance….

Meanwhile the ARW is so flat there’s basically no storm.

Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty

The thing is, if you amped the euro solution from 00z just a bit more, then you and me would prob see a lot more paste, Kevin since we’d be closer to 0C from like 900mb to surface. But if it’s more like -2C then it’s gonna be more powdery.

No it wound be like 28-30F for you. Not really pasty. Maybe for a brief time early on.

The AI was a clean whiff for several runs. Like actually no precip or a few hundredths.

Is it ever not at 84h?

Hard to hate that look

That euro run is crazy. Still think compromise between euro and GFS is the most likely.

Not a bad first guess, Ray. Kind of feels like a pretty decent 128 gradient if we get a blend of Euro/GFS. I feel like both of those solutions at 18z are pretty outlier-ish

Gfs is so fundamentally different in how it handles the cyclogenesis.

One of these models is gonna be grossly off.

Lots of posters will be disappointed if Stowe doesn't add onto their record or near-record early season snow pack with a favorable pattern for NNE out as far as the eye can see.

Congrats PVD on 18z ICON

Looks like it's hung up in CNE at 72h....18z Mon....we really want that further south for maintaining snow down to BOS to MMK line unless the mechanics of this change a bit. One of the things that happens if you drive the height field lower over us prior to that approaching shortwave, is that it creates more confluence when that shortwave approaches. We saw a bit of this on some prior runs a few days ago when that high was kind of sticking near CAR longer before finally retreating....I made the comment that some areas could get a good front-ender even if it flipped. The trend has been away from that for several cycles now, but if it trended even a little back toward that, it would make a huge difference....particularly for people closer to the coast and further south. I don't think it's a big deal over the deeper interior.

SE areas will need big time rates to get more than advisory snows I'm thinking. So it's a tough needle to thread....on one hand, you want a colder/SE solution, but on the other, you still need those big rates. Best way to get it is probably push that initial cold front a little further south but also keep the shortwave fairly potent, so you get both.

EPS and GEFS are in a model war for mid-month too now.

Big cluster converging toward the BM too...

I dunno, Bob with the mohawk avatar is good December juju.

That 12/10 system has a high pressure that Scooter can get behind....

Remember all those swears you learned when you were 2? That was your dad throwing a tantrum when he thought the January 2015 blizzard was going to miss us.

It actually cools a bit during the "CCB" portion of the storm

Here's 925mb at roughly the warmest....snow line prob from like over your head down to Ginxy.

It's a huge hit into BOS.