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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    A lot of it latitude too. Most of E MA is well north of you and Wolfie’s area. Kevin in Tolland is basically the same latitude as Tblizz-Brett. Some of the SW CT posters are even south of the cape’s latitude.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Gonna be a nowcast for that convective stuff. It’s been jumping a bit on short term guidance in both position and magnitude. This could end up being one of those systems that looks great on radar but not that good in ground truth. Well find out soon enough.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Interesting phenomenon….how many western peeps would turn down 10” of snow on top of their current pack so they wouldn’t have to watch eastern folks get 30”?
  4. ORH_wxman
  5. ORH_wxman
  6. ORH_wxman
    Amazingly, the EPS still has quite a few members that are hitting us for the 16th. I am not buying it but it is not completely out of left field if that system tries to make a comeback…it’s still far enough out that it could.
  7. ORH_wxman
    WinterWolf right now
  8. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr did juice back up a little at 17z for the convective stuff.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Euro has been significantly blockier in the longer range than the GFS…which is producing wildly different sensible wx for us on those runs. GFS tries to torch us to 60F while euro has multiple winter wx threats.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Wonder if this kind of acts like a WINDEX event down here except without the wind since we don’t have low level instability…it’s more elevated above the inversion. You get NW to SE motion on the line of steadier snow and maybe it rips for an hour or two and that’s mostly all you get.
  12. ORH_wxman
    It did show north shore QPF enhancement but it was just very light across the board elsewhere on a lot of runs until it was imminent. A lot of runs showed less than a couple tenths here.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I’d still think this longwave look should’ve produced at least one or two solid coastals. Only fly in the ointment is you can see the western ridge getting sliced off a bit in Canada, we know at least a couple systems failed on us because we couldn’t quite amplify it enough out west. But even with that showing up minorly in the mean, it’s still surprising we didn’t pop at least a miller B or two.
  16. ORH_wxman
    There’s def a convective element to the stuff after that initial thin leading band. ML lapse rates are actually pretty high. I think whoever gets a quasi-stationary convective banding element for a couple hours is where you could see a 3-4” surprise. Otherwise if you are outside that, prob a 1-2” deal.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that 1/25 storm would’ve tried to cut into BUF with that flow buckling out in the Rockies …good thing we had that faster flow to keep it south of us.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Skynets may have sniffed out this one not being amplified enough.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Let’s put it this way, if this ends up as widespread 4-6” over eastern regions, this winter will be making some headway continuing to stay ahead of the chains.
  20. ORH_wxman
    GFS got juicier again.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I saw a decent amount of crosshair sig. pretty cold soundings overall for a storm coming from this direction. Wonder if the sludgy low level cold that has seemed to entrench over New England is helping juice this a little bit. Forcing a little more lift on the WAA.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah. But then again we seem to be overperforming on minor events. If it rips hard for 3 hours, you can overperform.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Reggie juiced up a decent amount for a lot of eastern SNE.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I think 1-3” is prob the best forecast at the moment down in the pike region. We are relying on like 3 hours of WAA precip.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Both 2003-2004 and 2002-2003 were about 0.4F behind at this point. Still quite cold but tied for 23rd while this year is tied for 17th
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