ORH_wxman

GFS looks good for an inch or two for southern half of CT…there’s actually a decent little area of H7 fronto that clips LI and the south coast so can’t rule out a little band that drops 3”+ lollis if that ends up verifying.

You are not going to have to worry about arctic Coke lines in the 2/24 threat. That is a pretty marginal airmass imho. Decent chance we get rain out of it too.

3k gives far SW CT a couple inches tomorrow AM. Def worth watching there.

“Sneaky pattern for NNE/upslope areas” i mentioned yesterday. There’s more in the pipeline up there over the next few days. Another clipper there Sunday/Sunday night and then maybe a weak disturbance wed/Thu

There’s def some big hits on the EPS individual members but there’s plenty of northing too and a few rain events as well. Hopefully that threat becomes a bit more coherent.

Wow nice. Maybe a quarter inch in Holliston. We got one of the thinnest parts of the band…typical.

That’s like an hour in this winter. Beggars can’t be choosers.

Yeah the band looks nice but it’s moving. Was thinking a few spots may get 2” but that looks like a heavy lift pike south. Looks a little healthier up north of rt 2.

The problem is mechanics in the flow. It’s a rounded trough base and fast flow. That is plenty to “keep it from coming north”. If we can sharpen the shortwave with a slightly stronger vort, then that’s one way, but otherwise most of us are prob just getting some flakes and maybe a dusting. I’d def keep an eye on it down in southern zones though.

Good thing the snow tonight isn’t about 4-5 hours earlier. That would’ve been a disaster for evening commute. It’s not a lot of snow but it looks like it could rip for an hour or two which will def mess up the roads.

It’s got steady light snow at least into southern half of CT. It does have measurable up into MA but a bit more skeptical of that actually being more than just flurries or a few snow showers. If it ticks north again, then it would be worthy of a deeper look.

The trough position is pretty favorable for our area but the base it just a bit rounder/diffuse. If we sharpen that little vort near Philly a bit more, then there could be a decent stripe of moderate snows over southern CT/RI. Wouldn’t take much. I’d need more up this way…but even as is, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a steady light mood snow across a chunk of the area on Saturday predawn/Saturday morning.

Euro getting a little more interesting for Saturday in southern zones.

Yeah I’d agree on that. We haven’t had a lot of dryness out there since the early 2010s. We had some good heat domes move over the top those years. I think ORH got 96 one of those years. (Maybe 2011) Certainly a dry winter helps start the process since you basically get very little melting runoff in the spring with those warm/dry winters.

We need a central US drought to help give us a good source region for extreme heat on max temps in the summer…and then get the pattern to evolve in a manner where it advects into us instead of getting shunted south of NYC. I don’t think we’ve had a good one a while…we’ve been abnormally wet over the CONUS

Semi interesting for south coast. Esp in CT. It’s be surprised if we got much of anything except a few flakes further north. Maybe your area can grab a dusting. Tonight is more interesting for most of us.

I mean, the longwave pattern is ripe during that time which is why we were interested it in even back to last week. Sucks we can’t get any timing right. But that’s how you go from a mere subpar winter to a rat. You miss on your windows of opportunity.

Yeah I just posted that after you…there’s just a weak wave down south…I was hoping to see something stronger in that period. A northern stream insert would’ve helped too.

What sucks for the 2/20 period is that the southern stream temporarily decided to go quite when we have the big PV sitting just to our north. In El Niño, once you have a PV to our north, you often get the big dog when the STJ amplifies into it…but instead, we have very little southern stream action until a few days later…which may produce something in the 2/23-24 timeframe but it’s more precarious by that point.

Glad we don’t live there…

It might rip for like 60-90 minutes this evening. Someone yesterday said it’s almost like a squall line that comes through and that isn’t a bad comparison. It’s a pretty nice band of snow that lasts 1-2 hours and has excellent snow growth. A quick 1-2” seems likely for many. Can’t rule out a 3” lolli…more likely north than south.

I don’t think the reaction would be that negative at this point. Maybe if it happened in January but in late Feb/early Mar, many peeps would prob just welcome 60s/70s….tho we know it won’t be a segway into warm spring around here. It’ll flip back to 35-55F and east flow for the better part of the following 6 weeks.

Let’s go 07-08 next winter

Yeah you are correct the heatwaves were longer back then and max temps more extreme. I think at least part of it was the drought conditions across the central US and esp south-central US and the drought extended up into the northeast, just a bit less intense than to the southwest. Drought keeps dewpoints down and it’s easy to sore in the summertime when you have dry air. CC might make this harder to come by if we are getting more high-dewpoint summers. But it’s also possible if we do enter a drought at some point anyway, things could be even hotter now.

There was definitely a period of extreme warmth in the northeast during the late ‘40s/early ‘50s. I think 1949 is still the warmest year on record for many stations in MA. That warmth extended up into gulf of maine and the Canadian maritimes….so clearly there was something going on during those years that may have helped tropical cyclones get northward. But it’s an interesting question why we haven’t been able to get the same thing now with big warmth being centered over that same area in the past decade.