ORH_wxman

Yeah mesos are still marginal right now for utility. ICON gives a 20-burger for SE MA/Cape

RGEM shunted east a little at the last second. Still a good hit for eastern folks but slightly less than 06z

RGEM looks a bit more amped through 36h

Give @ineedsnowa break, he hasn't slept since October.

Def better than 06z and 00z....but not like the globals. It will prob be pretty ujnderwhelming run for most of us but its the NAM in clown range and it got better.

Looks like vis got down to 1 and a quarter briefly so they might have been mostly snow for a brief time or at least a lot of large aggies mixed in to drop the vis....but it was like 10 minutes of vis under 2 miles.

The old SREFS had a bunch of ETA members in there so the synoptics were decent (even the old RSM members weren't bad synoptically either)....but now it's all convective models.

NAM is coming in at a higher angle of attack....that's good for us I think...it won't get cutoff down east of delmarva and miss us like previous runs.

The IVT look got worse tomorrow, but it helps us Monday....we move that whole system east a bit quicker tomorrow so it is one of the factors that helps move Monday further north.

I want to see it keep coming west now because I’m def feeling a messenger shuffle with this one.

06z eps

Reggie looked pretty decent. I’d expect GGEM will be NW. But if the GFS starts drifting SE, then we’re sticking with the Red Sox analogies.

The key is the GFS. If that keeps doubling down and not drifting SE then it gets more interesting.

The 21z ARW wipes SE MA and the Cape off the map.

“Breaking: Red Sox show interest in signing Kyle Tucker. An anonymous source close to the FO says they are in discussion amongst themselves on making a semi-competitive offer…tune in for updates tonight.”

Feb 1st redux on model guidance....GFS takes the place of the Euro in that one while all the others keep doing their various foreplay dances but never get around to closing the deal. I love the John Henry Red Sox analogy...."we were interested and made a competitive offer"....that's what this likely will be.

Yep. March has some of our best storms. I think after the big SWFE in late January and the pristine deep snow pack that followed for weeks with a few refreshers gave everyone a Sugarloaf Maine to Mt Mansfield vibe and as soon as that started to break like it did over the past week-plus, a bunch of weenies start ending winter. It was a little disappointing to not add into that impressive pack but at the same time, I’m not rushing in mud season either and won’t pretend 2010 or 2012 are around the corner. That isn’t how it works here and there is a reason for many of us that March averages more snow than December…not just vibes.

It’s def still possible for a huge event down there. I think we’re cooked inland. Never say never but it’s getting late. Cape doesn’t need nearly as big of a move.

There’s been a really bizarre vibe in this forum the last few days to end winter after the Monday threat. It’s like we’re supposed to pretend we live in Virginia or the Carolinas….i guess the 2022-2024 period was so bad that some thought they actually did live there. The extended range pattern doesn’t look like an early spring for us either.

Already did that earlier.

Very similar to late January for that Feb 1st system when the Euro was on an island for a few runs. All other guidance was contorting itself with a plethora of different looks that all produced no snow. This time it’s the GFS but same idea. The misses look tantalizing but they miss for a reason.

Yeah we can at least agree with him this time that he’s not getting much from this one. Maybe an inch or two on Saturday though depending on mesoscale stuff.

The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit.

Yeah GGEM is basically a whiff. Some light snows for eastern areas but nothing of significance.

Wish Reggie was correct with warning snows here but I’m on the side of Ray’s map…I think 2-4” with lots of crud in there is the more likely scenario. Could even be less too if something like 12k NAM is correct but seems to be an outlier on the QPF being so light.