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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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If we get big rainfall totals into those 5-6 border counties in SE OH, then it’s game on for the pike-south crew…and even Rt 2 is looking better in that scenario. If the heavy rain mostly stays SE of those counties, then my area is in trouble and perhaps even N CT. We don’t just want to see the radar echoes get there, we want to see like a solid 0.50”+ of QPF
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If you want to follow something definitive upstream that will tell us whether the latest southern guidance is more correct, look at the radar along the Ohio River in SE Ohio tonight between 8pm-midnight....almost all of the guidance that crushes SNE gets good precip just over the Ohio river into the border counties of SE Ohio....the crappy runs keep it in West Virginia and basically completely whiff those Ohio counties. It ends up making a big difference downstream later on for us as the difference gets magnified....
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Euro uses more up-to-date data than the earlier 12z runs....part of its data assimilation process is that it can use ground truth to "Check" some of the 2z ingest. I'm not a total expert on the data assimilation for NWP guidance, but I do remember reading that was an advantage the Euro had several years ago.
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I don't think it will be all that interesting...it's going to go way south because the 18z RAP/HRRR already did that....the 18z cycles clearly have data ingested that say this is going to be way south. The more interesting part of me is going to be if we see the mesos try and tick back N on the post-18z runs.
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1/27/11 was similar up here (down by you, it was always going to be a big storm)....models went from a huge hit around 48h out to almost a total whiff 24h out but then in the final 12 hours, they blitzed back NW....at first, the old RUC had us getting crushed at 12-18 hours out, but we sort of discounted it as RUC amped bias beyond 6 hours, but then it kept showing it and finally the 18z NAM came in and jumped way NW. Most of SNE got like 12-18" from that one