ORH_wxman

March definitely has a higher standard deviation of snowfall than December. You can get some absolute monster totals in March but usually less likely to get those in December. (ORH is similar) They average out close but March a little snowier and also more likely to get a big dog in March. December probably has more “near average” months than March does.

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000. You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000.

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.

EPS QPF 50-75 miles would be big for a lot of the population

You’re in a good spot for this one I think. Prob like a 2” floor but with some decent upside/ceiling.

Euro didn’t even look that different from other guidance. It was a little skimpier on QPF down near Cape but honestly, when is it not? GFS trended NW but it’s actually still a considerably worse outcome than the Euro. Euro has been a bit too far south on multiple systems so far so it doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to think this could verify a little more favorable than it’s currently depicting. I’d like to see GFS keep bumping NW though.

Lot of posters on tilt already on 12/11

At least it didn’t revert to 00z but would’ve liked to see another tick improvement from 06z

Euro didn’t trend better at 12z. Mostly far SE areas and Cape hit. It has maybe a general 1-2” near and south of pike though.

A lot better. Looks almost like Ukie. Maybe not quite as juicy but pretty close.

I see we have already erased 2020 from your memory.

Mostly a south coast and cape scraper on GFS but another bump would make it pretty decent if we can get that trend going rather than just oscillating between scrapers and whiffs on this model.

Don’t think it will be enough on GFS but def a good trend.

Rgem def improved. Need a little more for up here but that was a nice hit for SE areas/Cape.

I think it’s def going to be a struggle to amplify this. There’s enough room to get us with a decent event but not by much. You really want to see those TPV heights relax a little north of us which allows the shortwave/vort energy to swing around the base a little easier…but it’s not an easy task.

Maybe…hard to really put any stock in the NAM at this range but it’s been kind of close to the Euro. Would be nice to get the GFS trending NW

Only goes out to 60h, but the 3k NAM might be a bit more amped than the 12km NAM. Hopefully other guidance follows suit.

Nice look for SE areas. Even most of E MA gets in on the developing commahead briefly.

Def gonna be better than 06z

Looks like 12z NAM is a little better than 06z through 54 hours. Not quite as suppressed.

There’s obviously plenty of ways to get a torching cutter too but this H5 look is very CAD-ish up in New England.

On which model? There’s like 10 different variations of what I’ve seen for that period.

06z euro improved again after the regression at 00z. I don’t think this one has a high ceiling though. There’s just not enough room. But it could be a solid advisory event maybe.

Classic west slope VT storm. That west and southwest flow does great there.

Yeah most of SNE is prob advisory that run outside of far NW areas maybe….then you maybe get into low end warning in SE areas. Way too early to worry about amounts though. We can’t even get guidance to agree on if a system will even hit us.