ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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You're prob in a good spot...GFS only needs to be overamped by a very small margin for you to get a warning event.
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GEM is going to be SE of 00z....looks like the Euro. D4 model war.
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GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution.
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Yep, not even close to 06z run...
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Surprised nobody posted the ICON..... Pretty huge hit well down into CT. Ginxy gonna text Scooter soundings in a few minutes.
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IF you're looking for early trends today on model guidance...if you want colder, the first ingredient is get that initial cold push on Monday stronger....if we can drive that -10C 850 line down toward the south coast 12z-18z Monday, then you are looking at a colder profile. But if it gets hung up in CNE, you're gonna see that marginal airmass issue quickly develop on the coastal plain.
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Yeah I think Kevin over to me is like 50/50 right now for pretty good paste job (even if some mix gets in there eventually). Ray’s extra latitude makes him a little better odds. Obviously like ORH (esp northern half of county) up into monads are looking really good if we’re talking SNE zones.
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If current guidance is very close to reality, I’d prob put you around 50/50 for warning snow.
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I think interior SNE will get some decent snow. Interior CT in that I-84 stretch might have some issues at 925 but we’ll see how hard that pushes inland. Lot of variation on guidance.
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I can’t believe Euro AI is still almost a whiff. What a dumb model.
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06z eps
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Yeah it’s the first storm of the season so I think people are naturally getting a little too hooked on each model run…it’s still 5 days out. It’s not like we’re 72 hours out.
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Euro being so flat is a bit of a red flag still. But there’s still so much time for this system.
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It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA.
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Good spot right now for a lot of SNE imho. Plenty of time to tick north with a retreating high.
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Euro AI is a cape scraper, lol. It’s been really flat. We’ll see what the OP does in a few minutes.
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128 gradient
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Vort def gets squeezed as it heads east. It’s the classic opposing forces we often see in these types of setups where the downstream WAA/ridge pumping is being offset by the confluence up in Quebec.
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Looks in-between icon and GFS.
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GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less.
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Yeah it could def come in a little better. I don’t think the fundamentals of the system are going to change drastically at this point (it will still be retreating during the event) but if the high holds a little stronger, then it would definitely make a difference.
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Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer.
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Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle. I think interior SNE could do well though.
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06z EPS looks pretty nice. Still a ways to go though.
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You’d like to see the low north of New Foundland a little south to hold in the high from retreating as much. It would give us more wiggle room on the track.
