ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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No it had like 15”+ up by Ray for a couple runs prior lol
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Looks like there is a mini-CF along 128. Lots of 36s and 37s just east and 32s/33s west.
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I think you’re gonna beat 3”…I’m starting to get into heavy snow now with that band just about here and the stuff to the west looks pretty healthy it’s going to collapses ESE at some point but that shouldn’t happen until closer to midday
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If you had to pick a “winner”, the RGEM is a good candidate. In an absolute sense it still struggled but it had the smallest swings compared to other models and I don’t think it showed a whiff inside of 48 hours like the Ukie did multiple times.
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Interior SE MA for sure will clean up…it’s gonna be close where I am right on the pike (technically a few miles south)…radar def looking better with each passing frame. If I crack 6” I can’t be too disappointed after yesterday, but I won’t lie that it will be a little annoying if I get like 7” and someone not too far SE gets over a foot.
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What an eye-gouge
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Def started off mild here in the 34-35F range at the onset but temp has finally dipped to 32 on the nose.
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Bands picking up strength along the pike S of ORH and back to CEF area…let’s keep that cranking for the next few hours
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There isn’t a single model that did a good job in this system.
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About an inch down so far. Good snow growth and picking up a bit now.
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Gonna be close here whether we get big rates or not. Ita snowing good right now but would like to see another nudge north on the echoes…they are trying
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Certainly S of pike looks like they may be in business. Not sure about right near the pike around here yet
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Nice band for CT right now
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The pope predicted this to be a rainstorm.
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He was forecasting no confluence 2 days ago.
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I don’t think it’s going to end up well here. 00z hrrr trended worse for the second straight run after improving between 18z and 22z. Just about ready to throw in the towel here on anything over 6”. CT/RI/SE MA still look ok but these flatter runs are robbing dynamics too so even the places that still get hit aren’t get hit quite as hard as when we see the more dynamic/north solutions.
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There were no smoking guns…some could say Ukie but we’ve seen it be an outlier a bunch of times before and just get embarrassed. Pretty hard to go against a strong non-Ukie model consensus less than 48h before an event. That’s really short lead time these days. It’s not like it was 72-84 hours out
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Needs to gain a little more latitude. I’m not loving the look at the moment. We need to see those heavier echoes in N KY break through a little more…right now the northern extent of them is pretty static…they’re trying to push N a little further east near S OH…next 2 hours we’ll know
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23z HRRR and RAP both regressed back south a small tick. We await 00z
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Don’t do ptype…those maps take forever (and I agree it’s annoying that they do). Do 3-hr QPF or total QPF or other maps like the 500 vort maps.
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I think 20-25 miles is fair game. Keep in mind though that the change in outcome is not linear…with each bump north, QPF will non-linearly increase because the dynamics drastically improve with these further north solutions with a little more northern stream interaction.
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Dude, it’s on this part of the menu…it’s been out for like 5 min
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I think the place is want recon for this storm is up in the Great Lakes because that will tell us if the northern stream is trying to get enough subtle interaction to crush us….that’s where the differences have been. @Typhoon Tip mentioned this earlier as well and I agree it’s the northern stream being the key player. Not saying the southern downstream ridging isn’t important, but the northern stream evolution is what gives the room for the downstream ridging to amplify.
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Yeah 18z euro is slightly better but we hope that’s not the final solution. But glad the trend stopped.
