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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    When I was toggling h5 at 42h, it was def a tick north. I don’t toggle QPF maps when I’m doing my analysis
  2. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks a touch more amped at 42h?
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there’s still another full day of model guidance to tickle back north. Even right now, the midlevels aren’t bad for S NH…maybe not jackpot but pretty good
  4. ORH_wxman
    They used to a long time ago before that. I am pretty sure that old criteria was sub-20F.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Agreed. It’s plausible but it requires some pretty awesome dynamics like we saw on the 12z Euro run yesterday and some of those GFS runs. Im sticking with 8-12 here and if some of these runs inside of 36h starting tonight decide to go bonkers, then you can always adjust. The one thing I hate telling people historically as a forecaster is to expect high amounts and then have to cut back really late in the game.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there’s some high stakes out east as it tries to go bonkers at the end but it’s doing it slightly too late.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks a bit more compressed through 36h compared to 06z.
  8. ORH_wxman
    There’s still a good amount of difference in 925 temps between model guidance. GFS is a bit more marginal with like -2 or -3 at 925 but euro goes like -5 to -6 in the CCB. That’s going to be a difference of at least 4” during the meat of it imho. Also rates will decide a large portion of the CP’s fate.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I hear you. This pattern has been chaos on guidance. Lot of shortwaves in the flow. It could easily end up as nothing. GFS has two moderate threats before that…sometimes we miss those when searching for the unicorns.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think my over/under there is about 7” at Logan but back bay may be more like 9-10”
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I mean I’m not worried here about much here except whether it’s 8” or 15”…first world problems for snow lovers. But I think most of SNE is safe for warning criteria if you’re more than 5-10 miles away from the water…I’m pretty confident BOS will get warning criteria but it could still go sideways there with advisory slop if a bunch of things go wrong such as rates, storm moves too quickly after sfc cools to freezing, etc.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I think they’ll keep inching north but I’m guessing the northern ones come south too. We’ve already sort of seen that the last couple runs….euro will be interesting of course.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I thought I was gonna get like an 18-burger that run when I saw what aloft looked like at 51 hours but then it didn’t really show up on QPF. Speed of this system is what is keeping me from going fully crazy bullish IMBY. I feel good about 8-12 but still potential for higher if we can pseudo-stall it for like 2 hours during the capture. GFS didn’t really allow that.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Escapes east a bit before it can really destroy us….
  15. ORH_wxman
    I mean, the OP euro last night at D9-10 was pretty obvious…but if we hate OP runs, the general pattern for something is there on the ensembles….you have a trough entering the Midwest/Oh valley with a 50/50 in place and even a bit of a WAR to try and push this back west if it tries to escape east. I’m not honking or anything yet but there’s certainly potential
  16. ORH_wxman
    Icon ticked south again so I think we’re starting to converge. Not that we really care about that model but I try to look for trends in the outliers.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Still very confidently going with that ICON run that had no warning snow south of route 2?
  18. ORH_wxman
    Hrrr is pound town for CT Tuesday morning.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Different issue…h7 track is mostly independent of antecedent airmass. I say “mostly” because a really cold antecedent airmass would probably force things a little south even aloft. The problem so often the last two years has been basically no good high to the north. And the couple times we’ve had a decent high, it wasn’t a fresh airmass.
  20. ORH_wxman
    There’s some threats after the clipper too. 2/20-21 is starting to show up more. Some guidance tries to sneak in a smaller threat 2/17-18 too.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I usually don’t expect messenger ticks until very late. We’ll see what 12z does. 06z easily could’ve just been a slight wobble and not a trend.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah they’ll def still tick north, but I wonder if globals stabilize or even come a tick south again (like 06z did)…I usually expect everything to bump a little north in the 48-60 time range.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Weird how the mesos are lagging so much in globals.
  24. ORH_wxman
    06z euro looks a tick less zonked too.
  25. ORH_wxman
    06z GFS might have been the first run in a while on that model that ticked a little south. Small amount though as has been with that model throughout this threat. It’s been acting like the old euro with small moves.
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