ORH_wxman

There’s two different waves in there. GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it.

Euro coming in colder for 1/7 also compared to 00z. Quick shot of snow/ice even into SNE.

ORH was -4.8. Coldest since 2017. 2nd coldest (only behind 2017) since the frigid December 2000. 12.3” of snow was slightly BN. Respectable month but would’ve been better if we hit on another moderate event. Snow cover was good though. I think something like 25/31 days with cover.

That WINDEX event actually ended up being our demise in many ways over the next 7-10 days. It kept the 1/30/10 system well south of us (that was the one that looked like a big NC/S VA hit but trended into a big N VA/MD hit. Fluff bomb.) Then the vortex from that WINDEX event just spun to our northeast with the huge block in place and kept 2/5-6/10 south of us.

There’s not lot of evidence we’re going to stay near normal at least for the 1/7-1/11 period. People can quibble on the magnitude of the warmth but it’s going to be AN. After that is a little dicier. There’s a big shift going on in the PAC. Looks like PV tries to get reestablished near Hudson Bay which would be a return to a colder pattern. The question is how quickly that happens. Could be in place by 1/12-13 or it could wait a week. Or something different could pop up on guidance. Seems to be pretty good consensus right now though on ensemble guidance.

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas.

@amarshall too.

@SouthCoastMA must be getting crushed

Even if we have highs of something like low 40s over interior, that is pretty solidly above climo this time of year. We often measure our torches in how much the peak warmth is, but even if we don’t have any days of 50+, it will still be solidly AN for several days. If that system next weekend (around 1/10-1/11) ends up more CADish, then we could mute the warm departures somewhat but they will still be notable. If we warm sector in that system, we’ll make a run at 55+ easily.

Awesome band for SE areas

2.3” in Holliston

Incoming for PVD

Gonna be a good round 2 for you

Congrats Scooter…RI/MA border though is gonna get hit twice by the max intensity

Woonsocket might get like 2-3” from the squalls alone….man.

I’d expect anything post-1/8 to be pretty poorly modeled right now with the big PAC changes going on. Our biggest chance at a monster torch day or two would be just beyond that…maybe 1/10ish if we warm sector cleanly with no precip like a few OP runs showed. But we’ve also seen some CAD looks around then too. So we wait. Heights will be way above normal but we don’t know on sfc temps yet.

Vis got down to about 100 yards here at one point. Maybe even slightly lower. Must’ve been beyond insane just to the south in the better echoes

Ghost of Scooter from St John incoming

Ok maybe it was delayed a bit but this is insane now. Whiteout.

Could see a couple inches in the 1/6 disturbance if it doesn’t weaken too much.

Scooter gonna miss the best squalls for him since Dec 2003…at least he’s in tropical paradise

Dumpage here right now. The very best is to my south though going through Franklin/Bellingham

Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging.