ORH_wxman

NAM def flatter than 12z…but not shocking considering it was most amped.

Prob like a solid 12-18 is the realistic high end scenario for us when you look at the pattern aloft. Yeah, there’s a few plausible exotic evolutions that might give us 2 feet but they are at the tail end of the distribution of outcomes. I think I’d want to see H5 stall this thing a little better for the 20”+ threat to increase…and I don’t mean like stall for 36 hours or anything…more like capture it in just the right spot and enhance the goods for 4-6 hours which is usually what turns our 12-16 inchers into 20-24 inchers. We all know most of the snow falls inside a 12-18 hour window, but having 8-9 hours of super intense rates versus 12-15 hours makes the difference.

My guess is there’s a bunch of members that aren’t even “registering” as lows. Basically your failed phases/whiffs way off southeast and it skews the mean.

This looks a bit suspect to me given the climo of SE NH on CFs and CAD

I think we’ll see the sfc reflection do some small messenger shuffles in the final 24 hours as the models “see” the syrupy airmass. Doesn’t mean we won’t torch aloft up to MWN but we often see the sfc getting shoved a bit SE as it tries to run into that arctic brick wall. I also noticed the 3k NAM was really struggling to bring sfc front north even when the 12k was trying to.

I’m not even looking at OP runs other than pure entertainment at this stage. Show me ensemble mean and spread until we get to tomorrow night or sunday.

Yeah euro is def colder than GFS and has been for a couple of runs.

Tropical tidbits maps usually tell you if it including sleet. You can toss the map if it’s an event with lots of sleet like this one

Positive snow depth change I’ve found to be almost universally too conservative if you’re forecasting actual snowfall but it’s semi-useful to use as a floor scenario.

Yes the 06z skynet was really cold. You’d never crack freezing if it verified. Not sure I buy a solution that cold but we’ll see what the real models do in a bit.

I remember the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm stayed on the trees for like 4 days afterward and that was the first few days of March. It did stay below freezing though but there was some sun too…luckily not much wind behind that one. I think the icing will be significantly less in this one versus 1995 though…this is going to be a lot of snow/sleet and then prob intermittent showery ZR and if the mesolow isn’t well-defined (ala NAM solutions), it will just morph into an in-situ icing event where it creeps to 32.1F after maybe a quarter inch of ice (if that).

1979-80 analog again

Map you saw above from TheMainer was only the snow after 12z Sunday. So it didn’t include all the snow that fell late Saturday and overnight prior to 12z Sunday. Euro has been pretty consistent with 3-4” in CT and 5-6” pike region.

Pretty solid for a week out

Looks more like the Euro suite

Def a bit colder than 18z. Easily a net-gainer for a large part of SNE. I’d prob take and run. But I’m hopeful we get a little easing SE as guidance feels the sludge to the north…but maybe they already have it correct, not sure. But one can hope for the messenger shuffles as we close in.

GFS looks a touch less amped than 18z too through 54h

Yeah and take a look at how much further north the lower pressure isobars poke into NY state than the 18z run. Btw, despite the early trends at 00z (admittedly mixed with rgem not going north)….I kind of agree with you that this system is pretty ripe for the primary to correct SE a bit on some of these runs as we close inside 48h. We have a pretty sludgy/molasses airmass to the north…true arctic stuff. Gonna be tough to really drill the primary up there.

Look at those thicknesses and ptype… Don’t worry about 10 mile shifts in sfc low. Look at the rest of the setup.

Reggie, on the other hand, is less amped than 18z.

Looks more amped to me.

They will once there’s a low 200 miles to our southeast and we need it stronger and west.

This is the timeframe when the mesos all get obscenely amped…the question is whether they are correct or not. Sometimes they are first to catch on but other times they are just doing typical meso zonked things.

18z euro healthy front end. 4” S CT to 6” in pike/Rt 2 region.