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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It might. Just saying that we would reduce Monday snowfall if it ends up a bit north. We’d still prob get a band of steady snow for a few hours with the vortmax rolling through…even the northerly solutions still have that. But if we want a positive bust to the upside, keep that low a little south and rip 40+ knots at 925 out of the east and ENE. That would help give us high ratio fluff that lasts into the evening.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Winds go more northerly though if the low tracks more north like on 18z. So we need it to stay a little further south.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah prob just 1-2” Monday on a more northerly track like that…it still rotates a band through with the main vort max at h5. Maybe more on north shore and parts of south shore that stick out more that can catch a more northeast flow.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Far southern Maine could get some high ratio goodies on Monday with the onshore flow. Good area to be.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Thump was more impressive this run. That’s kind of the tradeoff. If you try and rip this north into a deep arctic airmass, you end up getting a stronger thump ahead of it.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Basically dumps an inch of QPF in 12 hours on that thump.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That wasn’t anything close to the NAM thermally.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Risky forecast giving a haircut on south shore down near PYM/Duxbury/GHG/Carver....while it's possible they get sleeted on, they could really stack it up from ocean enhancement too.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Skynet GFS was a tick flatter as well.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yes. But you will get smoked before it mixes.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I feel like AI has opened up a new playbook for you. We will remember the photoshop days fondly though.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Still pretty skeptical on real sleet getting north of the south coast….not talking about dryslot pellets/snow grains that ends up irrelevant to the snow totals. But actual legit pounding sleet. But we’ll see if we get a bump north between now and go time…if so, then maybe real sleet sneaks into places like PYM over to EWB and maybe even TAN-GHG.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Reggie looks about the same through 33 hours...maybe a smidge suppressed compared to 12z.
  14. ORH_wxman
    I've seen it plenty of times this far out....it's rarely too warm inside of like 36 hours.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Def could be....tracks it just about over ACK which is def north of most guidance. NAM is still in that 54-60 hour range for the meat of the storm, so you'd want to see a few more cycles of that.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Euro maybe ticked a smidge SE. Not large changes though.
  17. ORH_wxman
    2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Only had to wait 4 years for SE MA to reclaim the jackpot capital of the region.
  19. ORH_wxman
  20. ORH_wxman
    We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance.
  21. ORH_wxman
    What a crush job for Scooter that run.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff.
  23. ORH_wxman
    You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I think 10 to 1 will definitely be too low to use in this storm unless you end up getting a prolonged period of sleet (seems unlikely for 95% of this forum) I’d prob go about 14 to 1 for the storm average. There’s gonna be a bit of wind too…not a lot but enough to prob keep us from stacking perfect dendrites.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Prob 2” QPF on south shore if you allowed it to go another panel
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