ORH_wxman

OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.

He was prob comparing to 06z EPS which was def south of 00z.

Ptype prob a bigger worry in the tristate area with vort tracking through BUF/ALB. It's prob good this is a touch south right now because I could see some north ticks here in the next day or two.

CT is prob the jackpot this run. But pike region looks very good too.

GGEM is ridiculous for next week in SNE. Solid moderate hit for Tuesday and then a major hit for Thursday.

Fast flow. You don’t get lingering storms…on the coast it might prolong a bit with the 925-850 flow trying to enhance things and almost an IVT look as it departs. But otherwise it’s a quick hitter. Best chance for prolonged snow is maybe we can get some prolonged overrunning next week for a time. But often it ends up focusing into a narrower window.

It’s almost very fine pixie dust here rather than your classic loud pingers. Stuff out there is like dry cement consistency.

Finally some good snow growth in this band but we'll prob lose it in a few min according to radar.

The only risk of a southward whiff would be if we saw this rapidly attenuate....but that doesn't appear to be the case on this event unlike today's.

This is some of the worst snow growth...maybe about 3/4" of very dense snow. Can't imagine we have better than 8 to 1 despite very cold temps.

You're not whiffing with a vort tracking over our fannies...what is going on in here?

They started cancelling a lot more the night before after the Dec 2007 traffic nightmare storm.

Regional view shows the best and most organized slug of precip going for CNE

Radar has been mostly putrid so far but it looks like it’s trying to get a little more organized. Snow growth here has been mostly terrible outside of about a 15 minute band earlier where we had a mix of baking powder and dendrites.

Steep lapse rates can greatly enhance lift via instability but it’s not the cause of it. The cause of the lift in this storm is warm air advection (isentropic lift)…warm air is being pushed into colder/denser air and causing it to rise over the top of it. If that saturated warmer air is forced to rise through a thick level of DGZ, then the snow growth is likely to be better than if it was a very thin layer of DGZ. In addition, a thin DGZ doesn’t have to be because of steep lapse rates, it can be due to an elevated warm layer too. Now you have the opposite of steep lapse rates.

My kids have no school. They totally could’ve gone today. But whatever. Steady light snow here. Hoping to grab 2-3”.

Sleet line is extreme SW CT right now

The thickness of the DGZ is just how deep the layer of -10c to -18c air is. It has nothing to do with how fast the air is rising through that layer. If you have something like -10C at 925mb and -18C up at 700mb, then that is a very thick DGZ. If that layer is confined to a narrower zone, like say, 800mb to 700mb, then it is going to be harder to get the best lift to line up with the DGZ.

EPS really looked good for much of SNE and CNE

Yeah wouldn’t surprise me if the northern fronto band produces some weenie totals even if QPF stays under an inch. Like a foot on 0.75 or something.

Looks like it tries to flip to snow in the heaviest stuff in NNJ…we’ll see if it gets some resistance as it tries to push east and northeast into the deeper arctic air.

Solid arctic airmass. You could tell with how dry it felt. Not nearly as cold as up there but you could still tell this airmass has some bite to it when I was outside. It’s not even that weird of an airmass but it feels a little alien after the last two winters of mimicking Vancouver’s climate.

At least if you don’t get much in this one, you weren’t missing much anyway with bigger things in the pipeline for the weekend.

Gary Gray’s site was millennium weather (separate from any primitive forums back then). He was always a must-read before big storms. He used to post on here for a while actually. We always laughed when at the beginning of every update of his on millenniumwx, he’d start it by saying “I don’t have a lot of time right now so I’ll make this update brief…” and then he’d proceed to write a novel dissecting every single model solution.

18z euro is a solid hit again. Low end warning criteria for much of SNE and into CNE.