ORH_wxman

Yep. Midweek might be a struggle. Esp down here but the weekend looks pretty good on the eps mean. I don’t expect pristine systems but I’d love to get several big front enders that maybe change to sleet/ZR over interior before dryslotting. Get some meat in the pack if we’re gonna be dealing with a prolonged winter pattern into February.

I wouldn’t put too much credence in anything beyond D5 in this pattern in terms of specifics but this type of pattern is definitely ripe for lots of rapid fire chances. So I think it makes sense to see so many systems.

The snow and ice threats just kept going in clown range that run. It was like 6 events total over the 15 days. Crazy active.

Also pretty warm for next weekend too. But these are gonna move around a bit. I’d expect mid week to be kind of tough south of CNE but next weekend has better look.

This might be a chance for Ray’s area into SE NH to eat into those big negative snow anomalies the last few winters. These are the types of patterns that do well there. They need a few of these patterns to catch up, but can’t start without the first one happening.

GGEM is a bit more amped than GFS on both threats but still decent front enders with some sleet/ice in there too. Lot of chances in this pattern at least. Reminds me of some of those La Niña patterns in ‘07-08 and ‘08-09.

A half inch of QPF icing will produce around 2 tenths of radial ice assuming that all half inch accretes at perfect efficiency which won’t be the case. So you can probably lower it to 1-2 tenths of radial ice.

If by “moderate ice storm”, you mean a tenth or two of radial in-situ icing, then yeah, maybe.

Opera Man ending?

Correct there is no guarantee. But typically if you get a 50mb clean split, the chances are very good for enhanced blocking.

Yep, that’s why when I posted that 50mb strat look, i mentioned f things line up well, we can parlay the organic mid-February look into a stratospheric-induced favorable look into early March…kind of like double-dipping. We can use the stratosphere to prolong the fun (hopefully)…or prolong the torturous teasing, lol.

We might get lucky and parlay that into a nice late Feb/March pattern too. @CoastalWx, we’re moving it up to D9 now…hopefully we can get this inside of D7

PV gets pushed further south by the situation in the arctic. Seems like AO tries to go more negative. Almost north pole ridging poking up from the EPO and some retrograding Scandi-ridging.

Two distinct strong signals on EPS…the Thursday threat which is the warmest one…but it’s been trying to trend colder. Then next weekend (mostly centered on Sunday) which is a colder look for much of the region. There are additional weaker signals beyond that as the gradient pattern continues to provide chances, but those signals are weaker and more diffuse as you get out into clown range.

Yeah so it was the max temps for sure then if they are even on mins. ORH radiates like total shit as we all know so if rad pits we’re doing poorly, then ORH would have lower min departures but they don’t. Prob a lot of that westerly flow we talked about in the January thread is the biggest culprit. It affects all of us but BDL really gets affected more than anyone on that flow with their max temps. I wish we weren’t dealing with these shitty ASOS biases…I can tolerate a few tenths but being off by 2 degrees makes a mockery of this stuff.

If that’s the case then a lot of westerly downslope flow this month may make BDL still a bit warmer even when you adjust for their ASOS bias. They ran 1.4F ahead of ORH and their biases are fairly similar though BDL might be a few tenths worse, but that still leaves roughly a degree difference. Anyways, pretty flaccid cold departures in January relative to the very cold mid-level departures.

Looks like the snow line is near rt 2 or just south…low levels are still warm so this is the snow line a couple thousand feet up…but prob plenty of mixing and catpaws just north of it

So is ORH. Both are running warm. Lack of radiating this month though was going to make BDL a little higher anyway.

Much colder look on 18z GFS for next week. Some legit icing in that overrunner.

Def some bright banding moving into western SNE

I’m sure he’s on the edge of his seat for some wet flakes at the end. We really need to bring the weenie tag back….

@CoastalWx, 12z euro actually destroys the 50mb vortex faster…obliterated by d11-12. Something to watch…

Yeah this is the type of pattern that is about as bad as it gets for model guidance in the medium/long range. Very high gradient with fast flow and an emphasis on what is going on in the fast flow coming out of the arctic regions which even in the age of satellite data is poor coverage up there. I’d expect lots of big shifts. Something that may look good at 6-7 days out could easily be congrats Montreal at verification…and vice versa.

SUNY MM5 was a go-to in CAD events circa mid-late 2000s

High variance though. Could easily miss out on those threats too. But yeah, the OP solutions could vary by 200 miles at D7 and beyond and even a 100 mile shift could be the difference between big snows and 65F flamingos.