ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah I think Kevin over to me is like 50/50 right now for pretty good paste job (even if some mix gets in there eventually). Ray’s extra latitude makes him a little better odds. Obviously like ORH (esp northern half of county) up into monads are looking really good if we’re talking SNE zones.
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If current guidance is very close to reality, I’d prob put you around 50/50 for warning snow.
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I think interior SNE will get some decent snow. Interior CT in that I-84 stretch might have some issues at 925 but we’ll see how hard that pushes inland. Lot of variation on guidance.
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I can’t believe Euro AI is still almost a whiff. What a dumb model.
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06z eps
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Yeah it’s the first storm of the season so I think people are naturally getting a little too hooked on each model run…it’s still 5 days out. It’s not like we’re 72 hours out.
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Euro being so flat is a bit of a red flag still. But there’s still so much time for this system.
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It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA.
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Good spot right now for a lot of SNE imho. Plenty of time to tick north with a retreating high.
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Euro AI is a cape scraper, lol. It’s been really flat. We’ll see what the OP does in a few minutes.
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128 gradient
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Vort def gets squeezed as it heads east. It’s the classic opposing forces we often see in these types of setups where the downstream WAA/ridge pumping is being offset by the confluence up in Quebec.
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Looks in-between icon and GFS.
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GFS is a great run for SNE/CNE….CNE would prob get some ML goodies even if modeled QPF is less.
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Yeah it could def come in a little better. I don’t think the fundamentals of the system are going to change drastically at this point (it will still be retreating during the event) but if the high holds a little stronger, then it would definitely make a difference.
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Yeah I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say if the most amped solution verifies, metrowest to 495 would have a lot of trouble getting accumulating snow. But there’s a plethora of solutions that are colder as well and this is likely to oscillate some on guidance until we are a bit closer.
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Gonna be tough for coastal and SE peeps. This isn’t their storm unless it threads the needle. I think interior SNE could do well though.
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06z EPS looks pretty nice. Still a ways to go though.
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You’d like to see the low north of New Foundland a little south to hold in the high from retreating as much. It would give us more wiggle room on the track.
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Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it.
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
ORH_wxman replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
If it were Christmas Eve instead of Thanksgiving Eve, the 60F isotherm would be 100 miles north. -
It’s pretty cold in the low levels on that depiction. Pretty wide area of sleet. It’s a really sloped system. But these are details that are mostly irrelevant right now.
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When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer.
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We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.
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We’ll make sure the proper rituals are done to maximize our chances. If it doesn’t work, we’ll just have to sacrifice someone
