ORH_wxman

It's funny that Pinkham Notch actually has one on record....lol. (Feb '69 storm)

What's weird is once you mentioned the 113", I remember it too now. I wonder if something was revised. Did you get anything in November 2004? I noticed it's 0.0" but there was a decent event for SE MA I think on 11/13/04 but E Wareham may have been too far south.

NAM got a little too juicy inside of 36 hours on a few runs, but it was surprisingly tame before that which was kind of a red flag on those huge zonked solutions.

This is just a wild guess....but probably because he has like 8" of snow on the season and nothing interesting to track in the pipeline....

EPS has a decent number of SWFE members for that early Feb threat....could be a cutter, but could also end up colder. That's what you get in a gradient pattern.

Euro vastly outperformed the RGEM inside of 72 hours. The RGEMs cousin, the GGEM, performed better than the Euro in the medium range...Like D5-6. But the RGEM only goes out to 84 hours....but by that time, the Euro already had an event and it was mostly advisory snows (which is what verified for the most part) while the RGEM was showing these crazy zonked solutions giving western MA/E NY State and VT/NH a foot of snow or more while everyone east of ORH was mostly rain....it was a really bad performance by that model.

No i still see it on the BOX site. But the 2010s decade for E Wareham is pretty bad on data....a lot of missing data, but it appears to have gotten better again more recently in the 2020s.

RGEM performed poorly IMHO....way too amped and much higher impact than the storm actually was.

Also, back where he is, the return rate on those big dogs is a bit lower than a place like E MA. It’s a little harder further away from the moisture source…they’ll get more nickel and dime events there to make up for it….the seasonal average might be similar to a place like interior SE MA but the distribution of snowfalls is a little different.

2/28-3/1 I think you mean? That was the “convective blob” storm. We were supposed to get like 8-12” over the interior but we busted a bit low (maybe had about 6” like you) because of that massive blob. It looked like an MCS. We were tracking it on WWBB at the time and messenger in PYM started reporting freaking silver dollars falling from the sky…they were getting 5” per hour. We weren’t sure if it would be all snow down there because the column was marginal…but it went isothermal. I think he got a total of 16” in about 5 hours. It was crazy…I remember him posting a pic in the middle of it and seeing nothing but silver dollars and the street light about 100 yards away was like a dim light in fog.

‘88-89 was fairly cold and one of my worst winters. Just bone dry. We did mix a couple cutters in for fun. But just horrific. This winter is kind of reminding me of that…not quite as cold but similar lack of snow. December was much wetter this winter but since Xmas it’s been fairly similar. At least I have a warning event this winter. We couldn’t even get one that year.

Here’s a sample…H5 first set and H85 temp second set

Basically the first week of February and goes all month according to weeklies. Take with a grain of salt obviously the further out you go…but I’ll say the weeklies have actually performed pretty well this winter so far.

Yeah mid-Cape had about 8-9” but I think some weenie spots near the canal had a foot. The pack after that one was into historic levels down there. There’s probably a few spots that had 60”+ that month for totals and the pack was over 40”.

Yeah gradient patterns can be boom or bust....if you just keep ending up on the wrong side of the gradient in each storm system, then it's garbage. But they can be prolific as we've seen in the past too. We'll see how it looks as we get closer....it might not even end up like that, but it's been fairly consistent advertising it.

We were also pretty sure as far east as the mid-Cape had over 100" of snow that winter....there's no real good coops east of E Wareham, but we figured the snow totals were fairly uniform (not necessarily in each storm, but in the aggregate since some storms like 12/26/04 favored further east) between the Warehamd coop and mid-Cape. I think Wareham coop had something like 105" which is crazy insane for them...and considering they probably lost a few inches due to coop measuring. They are good there, but not totally pristine. Just an incredible winter there.

Based on my grandparents house in Yarmouth and my memory of talking with Phil (capecodweather.net), we think they had about 33-36" in Yarmouth on the mid-Cape. But yeah, measuring perfectly accurately was nearly impossible because the winds were just incredible. A lot of houses had drifts right up to the roof....it wasn't just in isolated weenie spots....it was widespread 10-12 foot drifting. A lot of people forget this, but like 3 days later, there was another Cape-centric storm that dumped a solid 7-12" on top of the blizzard snows....we had like 4-6" back here, but I remember thinking that was bad timing for them considering they hadn't finished digging out of the blizzard. The pics after the 1/26/05 storm were crazy.

It's basically a perpetual gradient pattern right into March.

Those things better not come back for a long time. They did a number on the forest behind my house. There was one year you could just here all of them eating the leaves every time you went outside.

The ‘05 blizzard was exhilarating on the models though…it kept coming north every single run it seemed like and got bigger and bigger too. It was one of those storms that trends better and better right up to go-time. I remember @wdrag had an amazing AFD the day before I believe talking about how the ETA model was now closing off H5 which was going to help capture the sfc a bit more and bring higher snow totals. Some of METARS out of FMH were epic in that storm. You also know the storm was impressive with the airmass when ACK flips over to rain for a time but still grabs 24”.

You were near the dryslot cutoff. ORH had 2 feet but not too far south had dryslotting that made it more like 14-17”.

Yeah skiing is definitely way better in cold/dry winters. Also, up north a lot of places do well in upslope and leftover lake effect in cold/dry patterns. The upslope zones have been basically nature’s snow guns for the last few weeks.

Euro only had one run that really smoked us. It otherwise was raising the red flags on widespread 7”+. So I’d say it handled the storm the best inside of 72 hours. It failed in the medium range though (D5-6). Maybe Ukie gets some kudos too…it was pretty consistently meh on big warning totals. A lot of runs were in that 4-6” range.

Agreed. If there’s some snow OTG, I’ll def take cold and dry. At least it feels like winter out there with snow and ice all around and seeing all the ponds/lakes frozen here. Last two winters felt like fooking Vancouver…40s and rain every 3 days. Awful. But if it’s bare ground, I dunno…might take the warmth, but I really hate rain too. The “ideal” torch winter is prob very dry like ‘01-02.

End of month/first couple days of Feb is probably the only weak signal at the moment.