ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Feb 13th last year. Although parts of CT then rallied in the short term for a nowcast bust and got 8-12” anyway but a lot of us struggled to get 2-3”.
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Or it could be a compromise like we’ve been saying for the last 24-36h since the bigger hits were showing up.
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Yeah the euro suite is very much in the front of my mind…it’s easy to get caught up in the zonked solutions of all these JV models but the euro isn’t the best model for no reason. It wins a lot even when it’s on an island. But I do think a compromise is coming.
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If anything the downstream heights are a tick lower. More consolidated with lower heights is going to be good for a deepening colder system. Hopefully it has the general right idea as a compromise between euro suite and the western amped Canadian models.
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He’s tempting me to post the meme….I might have to wear it out this threat.
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It would if we get a compromise that is skewed toward the euro (like 70/30 or 80/20). It would still be a pretty big hit for SNE but prob not widespread 1”+ QPF like we see on some of these runs.
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Plenty of time for him to nudge this east for the Euro coup.
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Pretty sure it’s going to correct NW regardless. The question is whether it’s the typical 70/30 compromise we often see when the euro is in a battle or if it caves more than that. My hedge is that it will “win” the short term compromise (I.e. the Canadian models will move further SE than the Euro moves NW). Canadians seemed to have won the medium range battle though.
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Every piece of guidance will show solid warning criteria for most of SNE at 00z and then the euro will drop a turd on our screens at 1230.
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You gotta be, what, >50% confidence in 6”+ for a county to issue the watch? I def wouldn’t issue one yet. I think I’d issue one tonight for a chunk of SNE if we see the euro partially move toward the GFS and the GFS doesn’t shift too much SE.
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Difax machine is what spit out the old model panels before everyone had internet to just view them online. Almost any TV station, NWS office, and university weather department had them.
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Mean QPF did get a nice boost.
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They had no choice based on where 09z was.
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How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most.
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Don’t forget the FWC MOS….I think that’s what everyone called the NGM MOS back then.
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Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point.
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70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front.
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That snow hole from New Haven to Norwich doesn’t really make any sense on that map given what’s going on east and west of them.
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Ukie went east a bit. I don’t think it’s going to be correct verbatim but still clearly some pretty decent spread on guidance.
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Yeah this could easily be rain early but flip to several hours of mod/heavy snow near the end for SE areas. I want to see the euro come on board for a much further NW track before making that type of forecast. I’m still favoring compromise until we have clear evidence we shouldn’t. Euro just finished disemboweling a lot of guidance in the 1/11 event.
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Yeah incorrect application of the messenger shuffle term…it’s a SE term and it usually happens once inside of 36h (frequently inside of 24)
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Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours.
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When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise.
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Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h.
