The irony is, in the past few winters, how often did we NOT want a piece of the TPV to phase with a central/western trough but it would do it anyway? Now we want it…let’s hope it happens this time.
Need that vort energy in Wisconsin/Iowa to phase a little more with the southwest stuff before it moves east. Started doing that this run but not enough except for very light stuff into SNE.
GEFS def came north a bit from 06z. There’s some hits in there now while 06z had almost unanimous whiffs.
The risk is obviously suppression on this but it’s far from a done deal. PV is crazy cold with the press but it’s also moving NE with time and we don’t have quite the crazy exotic west based block like a Feb 2010…EPS is more bullish on the blocking which has kind of been a theme this winter
Yeah I was looking at 06z which was pretty ugly. Obviously that doesn’t mean the threat is gone but it truly is basically AI and Ukie versus other guidance right now.
Yeah at least everywhere had some success this weekend out of all the waves. CT and C/W MA really cashed in yesterday and today the eastern folks are overperforming relative to expectations 12 hours ago.
There’s more back building over the interior now…it won’t be as intense as the stuff in the last 2 hours, but it’s that high ratio fluff that can add a sneaky inch or two
Some of those soundings showing awesome growth at times late this evening seemed to be correct. Definitely getting really efficient stacking for a while now. Snow is slowly getting drier too so that helps. Just creeped below 30F.