ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Mean QPF did get a nice boost.
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They had no choice based on where 09z was.
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How often does the euro suite get its ass kicked inside of 72 hours? My guess is a compromise but it may be skewed toward Euro. But one of these model suites is gonna cave massively. If it’s a choice between Canadian suite and Euro suite, I know which one I’m choosing to cave the most.
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Don’t forget the FWC MOS….I think that’s what everyone called the NGM MOS back then.
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Definitely a red flag for the big amped solutions. I’m still hedging compromise at this point.
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70 microbars crosshair sig will do some quick damage on the snow pack front.
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That snow hole from New Haven to Norwich doesn’t really make any sense on that map given what’s going on east and west of them.
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Ukie went east a bit. I don’t think it’s going to be correct verbatim but still clearly some pretty decent spread on guidance.
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Yeah this could easily be rain early but flip to several hours of mod/heavy snow near the end for SE areas. I want to see the euro come on board for a much further NW track before making that type of forecast. I’m still favoring compromise until we have clear evidence we shouldn’t. Euro just finished disemboweling a lot of guidance in the 1/11 event.
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Yeah incorrect application of the messenger shuffle term…it’s a SE term and it usually happens once inside of 36h (frequently inside of 24)
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Yeah you might almost get a pseudo-pivot on that. It’s moving quickly but as this thing tries to scoot a bit ENE late in the game with the deepening mid-levels, someone could get hammered for 2-4 hours.
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When looping it vs 06z the track is very similar but the QPF field might be slightly more compact on the 12z run. Prob mostly noise.
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Then maybe just a tick west again at 60h…essentially the same track. Wobbling every 3h.
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Looks a tick east at 57 but very close to 06z
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I’ve seen them be very stubborn before and then cave late. Esp RGEM. But they can still be directionally correct in the mean….in other words, the flatter models will trend toward them. GEFS and EPS don’t have any members as amped as them so I think the RGEM/GGEM eventually come east at least somewhat. I’m still going with a compromise.
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And furthest west EPS member still tracks just east of CHH while OP RGEM tracks into interior SE MA.
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I was expecting Canadian suite to come east a bit like 06z did….someone is going to be quite incorrect inside of 60 hours.
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The thing is….it’s the NAM that’s slowly caving right now and not the other way around. I do expect the western outliers (Canadian suite) to start drifting east but I’m not expecting a wholesale shift SE to where most of SNE is getting just scraped by this thing.
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Most are famine…it’s been a very good pattern for upslope snow so anyone on the NW or W side of big mountains are going to be doing well. Hopefully we start getting some more synoptic events going.
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NAM isn’t going to be correct. I’d prob not be putting out 6-10 totals yet but at least telling people that a decent snowfall is a very distinct possibility for Sunday afternoon/night. Even the 3k NAM is a lot more organized than the 12k.
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That kuchera map is def taking advantage of ratios on 06z euro.
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It won’t be imho. It’ll slide east. I don’t think EPS has a single member like reggie. I could def see a compromise though
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Even a 70/30 or 80/20 compromise in favor of the 06z GFS with the 06z euro would be really good for most. I’d love to lock in the GFS here but I’m still leery of these further SE solutions on the Euro suite.
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Lol…NAM totally out to lunch on this one I think. But it’s interesting that the old EE combo are the furthest SE. my guess is we see a compromise of some sorts….which would prob maximize the snow coverage in SNE which is a plus.
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It’s because the euro is the superior model. Kind of a large gap for being 60 hours out right now though. I’d expect we’ll see a swift convergence today on guidance. My guess is euro comes west some more and the Canadian duo comes east a bit. We’ll see though…weirder things have happened.
