ORH_wxman

We’ll see if that changes as we get closer…sometimes on these fast flow with embedded vortmax events, higher res (OP runs) are gonna pick it up more than ensembles at lower res. I’m not sure if that’s the case here, but I think we’ll have our answer soon enough in the next couple of cycles.

Definite banding sig SE

It will oscillate but I don’t think the goal posts are that wide. I expect the canadian to come east. It has no support from other guidance. I’m more worried about a whiff but the 12z GFS moving west to at least getting SE areas is a nice trend.

Can’t see QPF yet but Ukie looks pretty far east ala GFS. Canadian may have inherited Uncle’s nip stash after New Years.

Yeah those were big fronto bands. They had more vigorous upper level look though. Not quite as fast flow as this one. This one kind of reminds me of that 1/29-30 event in 2018. Was a 1-3” forecast…maybe 2-4” SE areas and this quasi-stationary fronto band with good snow growth set up from like RI to SE MA and got them with a stripe of 6-9”. Big positive bust. People outside the band didn’t have a big bust…it was mostly 1-3/2-4 elsewhere but an area under that band got hit really good. Mostly fell in about 3-4 hours too.

Yeah it does. It never goes super slow on guidance like you’d see in a blocky El Niño pattern but the PV lifts north some and the flow relaxes a bit as we get toward the final 7-10 days of the month. That would probably be a potential window for a larger system.

Yeah and they can become quasi-stationary since they typically align parallel to the upper level flow too. So sometimes you’ll get a surprise somewhere that gets stuck under one of those bands. Hopefully not offshore in this one.

ICON has a nice banding look for SE MA. Hopefully we juice this one up a little more and turn it into a higher end advisory event with maybe some low end warning lollis…it’s possible in these ML magic looks. The worry is making sure the vort doesn’t get ground up too quickly by the compressed flow.

Nice little zone of ML fronto on 06z euro. Would be good for some eastern peeps.

Actually prolongs precip a bit with IVT look behind the ML fronto. Not a huge event but for south shore peeps and SE MA it would feel like a KU after the last couple years. It does get advisory stuff back to CT river or a bit west even.

It has it at 12z but kind of weak. Like a 2-4” type deal. Might have to watch for flash freeze during it too on that type of solution because temps crash. Start off marginal and then drop down into 20s

@dendrite We have another one who needs to watch the Terminator movies.

yea previously the Canadian was delaying it a bit and turning it into a big overrunning storm but now it’s more like the Euro and GFS focusing the event on that one vort/jet streak on the east side of the trough.

I think it’s about 12-13$ per month if you go the full year but if you just go on a month by month basis it’s $15 per month. I don’t completely love them because I feel they can add more parameters on regional views but for the price they are decent enough. Pivotal is easily the best free site…only thing that bugs me with them is their pages just eat up massive amounts of bandwidth. Whether I’m on my computer or iphone, the browser always struggles a bit with pivotal.

I’m not particularly excited or confident about next Monday but there’s obviously some solid interest in multiple piece of guidance. We’ve seen some stronger correction on energy coming onshore already this winter, so who knows. Strengthen that vort a bit more and maybe you go from a middling moderate/advisory type event into a solid warning event. Obviously it could go the other way too…weaker energy would be susceptible to getting ground up.

I dunno…my original reason (and most others as well) for posting on these forums eons ago was to talk about potential winter threats…so trying to discuss one through a gauntlet of b*tching and moaning gets a bit grueling. I understand the sentiment of multiple seasons of getting porked…but probably better to be segregated from the actual wx/model discussion.

Seems overly pessimistic in here. Anyways. 06z euro was nice…esp for interior

Ok yes, the record was set on Feb 4, 2023…just looked it up

Yeah I’m surprised the record would be set this winter. We haven’t had obscene arctic cold.

Yea it is. Which isn’t saying a whole lot with the dearth of big threats this season….but this one seems to be showing up on all medium range guidance. In one sense, the fast flow makes things a bit nuanced but on the flip side, this is a pretty large longwave trough over the east so guidance is pretty confident in its location and the storm is really just from an embedded vort/jet streak that is just riding the gradient…which is why maybe most guidance is similar. They all agree on the longwave trough…exception might be Canadian which does the whole thing in a bit different evolution (more positively tilted with overrunning look).

It’s interesting that despite a fairly precarious high-speed flow, all the major global models (GFS/Euro/GGEM/Ukmet) have an event hitting us as a plowable snowfall next week. Maybe just a coincidence but it’s been semi-consistent for 2-3 runs now.