ORH_wxman

They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here.

We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter.

RGEM actually is trying more than I thought once you get to 84h. Still wouldn’t be a big solution but might be one of those knife’s edge advisory type snowfalls if we could see a few more panels.

Icon took a step back at 12z. RGEM looks better. Neither is going to produce much for us verbatim in those solutions

100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one.

Yeah the 06z OP and EPS both improved decently. We need another one at 12z though.

Gonna need a good 12z bump today or it’s prob curtains.

Globals not loving the storm so far at 00z. Euro has been the eastern model so it would be nice if we saw a more phased solution later. Euro coming west would keep us in the game at least.

Yeah Icon was not quite the full phase so we got a rare scraper solution. That was super close to something way bigger though.

Reggie still needs work. Icon might do it this run.

Oh yeah…I’d prob trade a certain percentage of snowfall in exchange for huge winds during the storm. Not sure how much. I might take a 30% haircut if I could get me some true blizzard conditions.

I can change how I feel based on the data. I’m not tossing this storm out the window. Just was hoping for some stronger support by now but we still have time and the trends were positive today.

Trends are good right now which is very important in this time range. So I agree there. I’m still nervous about this fully phasing, but if we can see another cross-guidance improvement at 00z, I’ll become a lot more bullish.

It’s still pretty far SE in the mean. But at least we’ve added some big hits that weren’t really there at 12z.

The general trend today has been toward the GFS but the Euro trending so slowly has me spooked. It historically handles complex phasing much better than the GFS does. I think you have to hedge toward a miss right now….but it’s a very low confidence forecast.

The northern stream was a touch better, but the end result was almost a wash because the southern stream dragged slightly compared to 12z. But I do like seeing the northern stream slowly improve.

Yeah Westborough was just about ground zero on that run. But being on the coast of Maine will def give better wind.

Euro ain’t gonna bite. Northern stream just doesn’t want to phase in.

Yep. That block is going to provide some resistance. Ptype issues are plausible but likely the tail leftward distribution on this.

18z GFS was run on Ray’s computer

Northern stream looking healthier on ICON....not gonna produce this run, but very close. I wonder if this is one of those very few razor's edge solutions where we get light snow from it. I think if the ICON goes one more nudge at 00z like we saw this run, it would prob go nuts. This threat is ugly to follow because it's not one where the low is going to slowly move from Bermuda to ACK each run....it's going to jump when you get a good phase. On other threats, you're trying to get slightly stronger energy boosting the downstream ridge, or a better PNA ridge helping to dig it further....on this one, we're talking a full phase.

Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about with the non-linear response. It's not going to just slowly come NW by 25-50 miles each run....you'll likely see a whole bunch of members go nuclear if we start seeing the Euro suit phasing the streams better. Much like we're seeing on the GFS suite. 12z suite overall today was definitely a step forward, but we need another one at 00z. I think that's the 30 seconds cliff's notes version.

Improved but not enough.....gonna whiff this run.

Yes for the most part....I wouldn't call it literally all or nothing, but there's a very strong non-linear response to the features here. If you get the phase, it's probably going to be big, if it misses, there's a decent chance at a total whiff. There's probably a few "knife's edge" partial phase scenarios where we get a moderate event out of it.

They prob want ti tucked near the south fork of LI over towards just south of BID.