ORH_wxman

Globals not loving the storm so far at 00z. Euro has been the eastern model so it would be nice if we saw a more phased solution later. Euro coming west would keep us in the game at least.

Yeah Icon was not quite the full phase so we got a rare scraper solution. That was super close to something way bigger though.

Reggie still needs work. Icon might do it this run.

Oh yeah…I’d prob trade a certain percentage of snowfall in exchange for huge winds during the storm. Not sure how much. I might take a 30% haircut if I could get me some true blizzard conditions.

I can change how I feel based on the data. I’m not tossing this storm out the window. Just was hoping for some stronger support by now but we still have time and the trends were positive today.

Trends are good right now which is very important in this time range. So I agree there. I’m still nervous about this fully phasing, but if we can see another cross-guidance improvement at 00z, I’ll become a lot more bullish.

It’s still pretty far SE in the mean. But at least we’ve added some big hits that weren’t really there at 12z.

The general trend today has been toward the GFS but the Euro trending so slowly has me spooked. It historically handles complex phasing much better than the GFS does. I think you have to hedge toward a miss right now….but it’s a very low confidence forecast.

The northern stream was a touch better, but the end result was almost a wash because the southern stream dragged slightly compared to 12z. But I do like seeing the northern stream slowly improve.

Yeah Westborough was just about ground zero on that run. But being on the coast of Maine will def give better wind.

Euro ain’t gonna bite. Northern stream just doesn’t want to phase in.

Yep. That block is going to provide some resistance. Ptype issues are plausible but likely the tail leftward distribution on this.

18z GFS was run on Ray’s computer

Northern stream looking healthier on ICON....not gonna produce this run, but very close. I wonder if this is one of those very few razor's edge solutions where we get light snow from it. I think if the ICON goes one more nudge at 00z like we saw this run, it would prob go nuts. This threat is ugly to follow because it's not one where the low is going to slowly move from Bermuda to ACK each run....it's going to jump when you get a good phase. On other threats, you're trying to get slightly stronger energy boosting the downstream ridge, or a better PNA ridge helping to dig it further....on this one, we're talking a full phase.

Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about with the non-linear response. It's not going to just slowly come NW by 25-50 miles each run....you'll likely see a whole bunch of members go nuclear if we start seeing the Euro suit phasing the streams better. Much like we're seeing on the GFS suite. 12z suite overall today was definitely a step forward, but we need another one at 00z. I think that's the 30 seconds cliff's notes version.

Improved but not enough.....gonna whiff this run.

Yes for the most part....I wouldn't call it literally all or nothing, but there's a very strong non-linear response to the features here. If you get the phase, it's probably going to be big, if it misses, there's a decent chance at a total whiff. There's probably a few "knife's edge" partial phase scenarios where we get a moderate event out of it.

They prob want ti tucked near the south fork of LI over towards just south of BID.

Ukie had a vastly improved northern stream this run....southern stream still dragging which is why it can't produce the bomb. There's a non-linear response to these features.

Ukie looking a lot better through 84h....won't be like the GFS because the southern stream is dragging a bit, but the northern stream looks much better. Hopefully a good sign for Euro later.

Jan 2011 also curled up into the gulf of Maine....this one kind of slides due east after reaching a certain latitude. Looks more like 1/27/11 by the time it gets up here...maybe a bit more robust and a little north of that one...but same type of sliding east.

That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB.

Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z.

Weird how ugly the OP runs are but the ensembles are def still trying. Can’t have any regression at 12z though.

Human nature. The regional battles pre-subforums were epic. I remember when Ekster trolled Nikolai(a poster from Mid-Atlantic back then if you don’t go back that far) one time when we all shared model threads. When a GFS run showed a huge mid-Atlantic jackpot 5 days out, he casually said something like “That’s in a great spot at 120 hours if you’re in Boston.” And all hell broke loose, lol. So many random squabbles like that.