ORH_wxman

NNE elevations and upslope hubs it can be like mid-winter sometimes. Prob the same with lower elevations of N Maine and into the ME foothills. But for most everyone else, it's very tough. Sticking out into the Atlantic modifies things so much. It's often our friend in winter but can be a curse early. It can be like pulling teeth to get a storm track to the southeast of us. I'm always amazed at how few 12"+ storms have occurred in November. I think ORH has exactly 2 (Nov 1971 and Nov 1899)...and that's at 1000 feet in the interior.

This one has a colder overall look....but that '71 storm was an absolute doozy. Gave ORH nearly 15" of snow but the jackpot was actually from about AVP-ALB-RUT where over 2 feet fell in spots. The '71 storm was almost a hybrid Miller B. Next week looks like a deeper overall longwave trough and further east. So we'll be trying to pull something in from the ocean more than going Miller B...but things can change.

This reminds me of what Tip and I were musing a couple days back when we were discussing how models tend to break down intense EPO blocks (or really any arctic blocking) too quickly in the extended range. On this run, that block is just hanging out north of the Bering redirecting the airmasses down the east side of the North American cordillera.

I also have to wonder how the lower level delta-T at this time of the year would be complicating things...if you get something that deep going over bath water, it will just want to go up like a mushroom cloud. Remember how the models struggled with the extremely anomalous PV lobe diving under New England on Feb 14-15, 2015? It was trying to arc the best dynamics well northeast of the actual intense PVA and upper level support but in the end we got that 6-8 hour nuke job over eastern MA/RI. On a smaller scale we also saw that happen on 12/9/05...that was a much smaller upper level feature but it was extremely intense. The vortmax was something like -50/s^2 and when it hit the early December bath water south of LI, it ignited way more than most guidance showed (though the old ETA model back then in its final winter got pretty close to nailing it). Regardless, any time you see such anomalous upper level features, it warrants close attention. Probably both skepticism and attention if that makes sense.

More like a PV lobe....but it's pretty unlikely. But it's definitely gonna be really cold and there's a legit chance something forms on the eastern side of the trough.

That is a pretty fun solution. Dropping that pv into philly and see what happens....

There was a huge snow event on January 3-4, 1996 a few days before the blizzard. It actually dumped the same amount as the blizzard in ORH (about 15" from each). There was a sharp cutoff though in accumulations once you got south of HFD-PVD or so....lots of sleet, etc south of that.

BOS average first measurable is 11/29 but if you go by first inch, it's 12/11.

Yeah that pattern being shown from about Veterans Day to the 15th or 16th has a lot of potential. Heck even behind that the PNA is trying to reload a bit so we may get more shots later on. All you can realistically ask for in November. There's a reason even a place like ORH averages 3.5" in the month of November. It's a tough month...but we actually have some stuff to track this year.

On November 5th. Mark it down. First melt of the season.

Yeah and even behind it, there's another shot...I almost wanted to see the Euro run to 264-288 hours on this run, just to see what happened to all this stuff dropping down from the plains at D10 even though it's going to look totally different next run....ha

And yeah....Euro still hitting 11/12-13 pretty hard. Obviously way out there in clown range, but there's been some multi-model support for something lurking in that time frame.

There's some serious cold dropping down next week....if we get a threat for 11/12, I don't think the antecedent airmass will be an issue.

Yeah but Tday was early on 11/22...occurred only 6 days after the nov 15-16 event. Tday is nov 28 this year.

Lol, we'd probably lose all of our snowpack by 11/20 even if we got hit by both storms. Too early to maintain it at our latitude...esp with the pattern looking like it may relax a little. But i hope we get another event right before Tday

One of SNE's worst icing events on record was November 26-28, 1921. Right to the coast too...over an inch of ice in a huge area with Pretty decent swaths over 2 inches thick. It was a cold event that started as snow and had some sleet mixed in during the latter part of the ice storm. Temps mostly in the 20s unlike the December 2008 ice storm which was marginal temps of 30-31F. November 17, 2002 had a bad one near and just south of the pike. Esp N CT. I remember ORH having decent ice but sleet cut it down a bit compared to further south where some spots got half an inch. There's been some lighter ones too...Thanksgiving 1985 actually knocked power out to some towns in ORH county. So they do happen even if rarer than winter months.

Euro going for another threat on 11/12. As mentioned earlier, prob multiple shortwaves to watch in the pattern over the next 10-12 days.

For anyone who has to be up early in the morning (and I find is especially bad with with kids), DST absolutely blows donkey balls. Really glad we've fallen back. I'm fine with DST from April to maybe early October, but this BS of waiting until November and going as early as March 8-10 really sucks.

Euro...SNE smoked. Lol.

They're gonna be able to build a huge base the next two weeks. Should be some really cold nights where they can become very efficient versus the more marginal nights. Good news for the World Cup there. Hopefully no 12-18 hour tropical cutters 2nd half of month. That's really the only thing that can ruin it.

Nice. Thanks Chris. Yeah that ORH number is close to mine. Even a bit earlier but I only did since 1991...long term will prob nudge slightly earlier with those 10/8/88 and 10/10/79 plus the 5 consecutive October snowfalls from 1960-1964. And the 1980s were really good for early/mid November snowfalls too. If I threw my 1995-2002 years into your numbers it might push back the date a day or so since those years averaged November 12th for first measurable.

Happy birthday to one of the biggest weenies of all time. Definite hall of famer. Hopefully we can grab a snow event next week as a belated present.

First freeze for ORH. They hit 33 a couple weeks ago but couldnt quite get that last degree.

Your numbers are a couple days earlier than ORH which is surprising. Though you go back prior to 1991 which is where I started. 1988 was really early on 10/8 so that would prob push back the date. Then add in the early November 1987 and 1986 snowfalls and that prob pushes it back even further.

I don't have the numbers for everyone else, but just doing a quick calculation for ORH since 1990, I get November 20th as average first measurable. (Obviously average first trace happens earlier) So your guesstimate range was accurate. Maybe Chris could pull up the official averages for everyone at his finger tips. My ORH numbers include the lost 1995-2002 years when had a couple October snowfalls so they are probably different than the official ncdc numbers. (But mine will be more accurate)