ORH_wxman

It's actually not clear at all for "the current event" given that the autumn attribution is extremely weak to non-existent. It seems the trends are stronger for summer. From the most recent paper you linked: This is the problem with some of the attribution studies that are in a shorter time span. Esp starting in the middle 20th century.

Another panel or two and it looked god for some overrunning clipper snows. But yeah...it won't be there next run, lol. The flow is definitely compressed/fast.

I actually remember the snow on 9/30/92. I was outside playing and it started as a shower and quickly went to graupel and then some legit flakes mixed in at peak intensity. It was pretty awesome.

First snow threat brewing on D10 OP euro? Just need that to stay on for a few more runs and then watch the meltdown when it disappears at 192 hours.

Not are about other sites as I haven't checked but DEN is going for all time October records with this cold shot...both record low max and record low min. Pretty impressive. But that doesn't match with climate change. Those types of events are supposed to be less frequent. Not more frequent.

EPS are pretty cold 11/7 onward. Coldest look yet. Maybe first flakes watch? Usually our first flakes are some windex or psuedo-windex crap from a deep upper trough. But maybe we can sneak something bigger in like 2012 or last year.

Yeah '96-'97 was active. Lot of teases and some ok events but for those who missed the 2nd December storm, it was mostly rough times until March. SE MA did get the Jan '97 event but they got mostly rain in the advisory snow to ice event inland around Vday '97. That was probably our biggest ice storm between 1992 and 2008 in central MA...pretty solid event. They had nothing though by the time you were at 495. Pretty sharp cutoff on the icing. Left for Sunday River with my cousin and uncle the very next morning...there was like 2-3" of snow OTG with a pretty thick layer of ice on top of it with the ice covered trees absolutely glistening in the sun....by the time we were around Littleton to Westfield to Lowell on 495 on the way up, it was bare ground with no sign of ice anywhere. Stayed that way until we got to Maine and got west of 95...basically zippo in PWM and then Gray Maine had like a foot or more of snow and then by the time we got to north side of Sebago it was well over 3 feet. Couldn't believe the tight gradient in snow pack there. Lol. We had another event in late January '97 that was a bust too. Was supposed to be like 4-7" inland and then maybe some sleet/ZR before flipping back to snow. I woke up at 3am overnight after it had started and saw we already had 3" and it was snowing heavily...felt great about it. Woke up at 7am and it was pouring rain and we had about 1.5" of mush left. Never changed back to snow except a couple flurries. I never really knew what happened until a few years later when I bothered to look at reanalysis and saw that we got swamped by a pretty potent primary in NY state. Guess it was supposed to be more secondary development or better CAD. Still seemed like an odd forecast given the reanalysis.

BDL looks like about 19"...so one standard deviation below average is somewhere in the 29-30" range for the season (since average is about 48-49")

I had snow pack pretty much the entire month of march 2018...and 2017...and 2015...and 2013...

Yes he was. He clarified that a few posts up. So he basically thinks around the 30 inch mark defines a ratter at BOS. Which is fair. That's not a very good season in BOS. One standard dev would be more like 22.5" but we all have different thresholds as to what "ratter" actually means to us. I tend view the term as something more than just a run-of-the-mill cruddy season. Jerry did invent the useage of the term describing seasonal snowfall so he gets more say.

For BOS maybe? But even 30% looks like a steep standard. 30% of BOS normal is like 13.5"...we're getting into top 5 worst snowfalls of all time there. For ORH it would be even higher because 30% of ORH normal is like 21 inches which is the all time worst season on record (1954-1955 had 21.2")....for ORH I'd go anything under 65% of normal which is about 45"....for reference, 2001-2002 had 44.4" while 2011-2012 had 39.7" at the airport. Getting under 45" there isn't that easy. Even 2015-2016 couldn't do it. Though 1999-2000 did (sneaky awful ratter that was at 30.2" including a trace in December). Best way to do it is probably standard deviation. One standard deviation in the bad direction will leave you in the 17th percentile which I think is pretty reasonable. For ORH a standard deviation for a season is about 24". So 69 minus 24 leaves me around that magical 45" total that I came up with earlier. For BOS, one standard deviation is about 21.5", so 44 minus 21.5 would be 22.5"....that sounds about right too for a true BOS ratter.

I think you used that term all the way back on Wright weather. Lol. I remember you saying "that winter was a dead ratter"

Oh I misread...I thought you were disagreeing with ray that it was a great winter up there...but you were actually agreeing with him that it wasn't a 2001-2002 by saying "it wasn't at all"

??? BTV had their snowiest winter since 2010-2011 and 3rd snowiest January on record? Solidly below average temps up in NNE too I'd say that was a pretty damned good winter there.

December was epic where I was. Though we got Grinched really bad...lol. Before that though we had 26" from those back to back storms and we did have a nice festive 2-4" event on New Year's Eve morning...cleared up a little before sunset and it got absolutely frigid that night. I was pissed about that early January system. I remember we got into heavy snow briefly and I was getting excited for a positive bust but it literally shut off like a faucet after about an inch and then I saw the Patriots playoff game in Foxborough on TV later that afternoon where they had a solid 8-9" and I got pretty grumpy. Lol. February was pretty terrible though. Without 3/31-4/1, I probably rate it a slightly below average winter but not a ratter. It was definitely frustrating though from about mid January until early March. We had a pretty good icing event in mid February though after a few inches of snow on the front end. Prob about a third inch of accretion. It was a decent amount. I went up to Sunday River the next day and they had absolutely epic snow pack up there. Prob 4+ feet on the level once we hit North Waterford to Bethel Maine...huge gradient too, they had bare ground around Portland...they hadn't seen the sustained icing that ORH did the previous day.

Biggest problem with nailing a forecast here is the NAO is mostly stochastic. We have not been able to forecast it with any skill unlike the PAC.

Same thing every autumn...some are optimistic and others are pessimistic. Pretty soon we'll have a couple meltdowns over missing a 10 day threat on November 20th by those who pretend climo on 11/20 is equal to 1/20. Or if we get a good snow event in November, the pessimists will claim we "wasted" the pattern and will have a ratter when it counts...ignoring 2014-2015, 2012-2013, 2004-2005, etc, etc. The optimists will point out any analog that remotely matches this year and produced a ton of snow. Round and round and round we go. Lol.

Yeah. Wasn't a great storm though for CNE...down to about N MA where it was decent but just a run of the mill 7 to 9 incher.

Gonna get a lot more too coming up in multiple shots. Great early season pattern out there.

That epic band in that storm

That's because there were two snow events...an October rarity. 10/15-16 and 10/18. 2011 also had two events. A little teaser on 10/27/11 two days before the big one.

Yes, the Euro seasonal actually did quite well with the PAC pattern....it had the +PNA connecting into the -EPO which is a very bullish cold signal, but for some reason it had temps mostly above normal with maybe an area of near normal in the upper plains/lakes.

They got around 2-3 inches in Foxoborough....they were in a perfect spot and also that couple hundred extra feet helped.

I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no. It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model....

How about a 1 month lead time?