ORH_wxman

EPS ensembles. Still some work to do but a big improvement.

I’ll only post that if the 1/10-1/15 period fails.

Yeah I was mentioning the other day that this type of NAO is usually more favorable for our region. It still allows room to pin low heights in the 50/50 region but it’s not so overwhelming that it suppresses everything. That type of NAO is also less likely to link up with a SE ridge too because it’s coming from the wrong direction for that.

Should provide a lot of chances going into the second half of January if that verifies. Ridge will be offshore so there’s going to be more cutter risk, however, the NAO will help with that and there’s a lot of cold available. Prob some SWFEs in that look too.

Splitting the difference would prob be good. Euro doesn’t go nuclear until Maine on the OP run. GFS maxes out down near NYC.

Still dragging its heels a bit but a lot better than previous runs

Problem was we had no phasing with southern stream. Even partial ejection and phasing would’ve produced something but we always kept everything too sheared.

I didn’t expect euro to play ball with southern steam. That’s a nice surprise.

I think the 1/14-1/20 period will likely have a couple chances too. You’re relaxing the block a bit but it’s still there.

I agree that I think it’s somewhat likely a larger storm occurs if you eject and phase that southern stream considering how meridional the northern steam is. Almost every single solution that phases it has been pretty huge going back a week when it was out at D14-15.

Lack of cross-guidance support makes the 1/11 threat pretty low probability at the moment. GFS is the one model that wants to not bury so much energy southwest. Ukie and Canadian weren’t too far off. I fully expect the euro to bury this to Cabo because it loves doing that.

In all honesty, move the whining to the other thread. Catching up this morning was utterly unreadable.

Anytime you see BN temps in NYC/NJ and AN in NNE in January, that is not a rain threat here.

Yeah it was a little delayed…more like 1/13 on the euro but that looked interesting with the ejecting energy from SW. Ended up being a DC/PHL system this run but wouldn’t take much to make it interesting here. Funny how the euro is burying the energy far more than other guidance….I don’t know the stats these days on it but I wonder if it continues to carry the longtime bias of burying energy in the southwest.

It’s been toying with the idea of something larger for a few runs now. I’d want to see some cross-guidance appeal before taking it more seriously.

Yeah I wouldn’t bitch at all if we got a 55” winter. Excessively going below climo becomes grating after just a couple seasons. We’ve all endured horrific seasons on here in the past. 2015-16, 2011-12 and 2006-07 (for a lot of SNE. Interior did make a decent comeback)….and for those of us who go back far enough, 2001-02….but we always rebounded with a good winter quickly if not the very next year.

Well the very next year we crushed it with a ridiculous NAO block in late December 2010 and first half of January 2011. Granted, we spent most of that time with a -PNA (but not the flavor where we have a perpetual trough down into Baja Ca…more traditional -PNA instead).

Attribution studies outside of empirical temperature/dewpoint increases are easily the weakest link of the climate science. Most of them are low confidence and there’s a relatively high rate of rebuttal papers that come out on those attribution studies. If you take time to read some of them, it becomes clear but the problem is a lot of them get curated in media with big headlines and nobody bothers to look deeper because they assume the headline is not only accurate, but the confidence is high…when often that is not the case at all. The waters get muddied too because if you push back on a specific attribution study or highlight the low confidence aspect of it, you’ll get accused of being a “science denier” which in my opinion, is probably the most anti-science thing you can say. Science is about asking questions and being skeptical of high-impact claims. Saying “ok, let’s see some more robust data on this before confidently making headline claims” is not being anti-science. It’s being pro-science. I have fairly high confidence in most of the datasets being used in climate science. There’s obviously some problems on smaller scales (such as the ASOS temp discussion here) but the larger scale impacts of those should be fairly minimal. The biggest weakness is not the datasets themselves, but the statistical application of that data and some of the climate models being used to analyze that data. You see some p-hacking to squeeze stuff inside the 2-sigma confidence intervals and on top of that, you’ll frequently get “scenarios” in the climate models and only the tail-end scenario makes the headline when it’s somewhere between excessively unlikely and completely unrealistic.

Having snow in YBY def increases ski traffic but there’s a ton of skiers who go regardless. I learned to ski in the early 1990s when brown grass in SNE was the norm. Even up in NNE it was bad but the mountains usually had enough snow and there were plenty of crowds during awful years like 1990-91 or 1991-92. If you got lots of days that stayed below freezing with no rain, then it was usually solid. As long as it wasn’t like 0F with wind.

Which is very rare this time of the year there. Even in recent winters WaWa has been able to keep some natural snow at most times.

Most ski mountains are pretty solid if it stays cold.

If it’s not gonna snow, it’s a pretty good alternative imho. It’s just beyond boring though from a meteorological aspect. I’m still hopeful one of the multitude of shortwaves rotating down between 1/10-1/15 takes hold. Would be nice to at least get a moderate event.

Yeah prob a lot of -6 to -8 type days. Average highs in SNE are in the low to mid 30s and a lot of days are going to be in the 20s for highs. Not arctic cold but somewhat BN. That’s probably ideal though if you aren’t going to snow…it freezes all the ponds and keeps skiing in solid shape for the winter sports people while also not utterly destroying our heating bills and making it overwhelmingly uncomfortable outside.

These last few winters have given us a good taste of what being a severe weenie in New England is like.

Man, it’s been bad but we've reached the nadir when we’re basically giving up on January 3rd. I guess we can always give up on Thanksgiving next year.