ORH_wxman

ICON scrapes the south coast and Cape for 1/6-7....better than 00z but obviously the rest of us need more than that. But good to see a little less confluence this run.

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members.

Still a lot of spread for 1/6 on EPS. The mean is still spreading QPF well up into NNE. Plenty of whiffs on the table too. But we’re still not all that coherent on this one yet.

Well you are the most shamelessly IMBY on here, lol. I’ll tell you, another 3/5-7/01 storm would erase some of those extreme NE MA and SE NH deficits really fast. Some people forget that 2 days after the end of that storm was a late bloomer Miller B that dumped another 6-12” of paste in that same area (might have been more up in Maine). What a ridiculous stretch.

Yes I think it works well in that scenario because the second one has a relatively undisturbed baroclinic zone due to the first getting ground up. Typically, when there’s two close together, that first one will sweep the baroclinic zone out to sea which screws us…but not if you can grind the first one into a pulp before it does that. I’ve been looping a lot of the longer range ensembles and it’s remarkable how stable the longwave ridge out west is on so many individual members right to the end of their runs…it’s one reason I’m really not all that worried if the 1/6-1/7 threat doesn’t work out. This looks like one of those patterns that could produce a lot of chances even beyond the two we’re pseudo-focused on right now. A lot easier to get a hit if you have 4-5 at bats versus just one.

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke.

That look near Jan 10-11 is really a powderkeg. Could easily end up as nothing but the longwave support on that is immense. You have this giant PNA ridge pushing everything so far south.

I actually don’t mind the second shortwave coming behind the other one on the 18z GFS because it allows amplification into the block somewhat. Im not sure it will look like that though given the euro is quite different with a much stronger consolidated shortwave. Either way, needing the confluence to relax a touch isn’t the worst spot to be at D7

Not in this thread. Weenie-ing out over April weather is why we have the December thread.

Def a lot of spread on 1/6…the mean has like 0.1” to the Canadian border but 0.25” down into parts of SNE. So prob a lot of big ones and total whiffs when you have a diffuse look like that on the QPF shield. This is to be expected though considering we are 7-8 days out. It feels like closer because we’ve been talking about that as the first potential event for days now.

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave.

Not get overly emotional on 200 hour OP runs? I can't force people to not get emotional and melt down, but it's legitimately irrational that amount of weight the OP runs get at that time lead. People can wait an hour and look at ensembles. But to each his own....

Has nothing to do with what I said though....I've banging the "suppressed risk" for a couple days now on 1/6. But it is still hilarious to watch people live and die on model PBP at such a ridiculous lead time.

Oh you know people are taking these OP runs fairly seriously. It's quite evident in the discourse.

It would be another 55F rainstorm if we didn't have the NAO. Just need to avoid having too much block which is definitely a risk right now.

Lots of very marginal events where elevation helped the last couple winters.

ORH has had a few shaft jobs the past winter or two too even in storms that hit areas nearby. Feels like they are getting some payback for this 6 winter stretch....that's actually a ridiculous stretch relative to climo (about 70" long term mean).

Interior SE NH like 20 miles north of you might be even worse relative to climo, but that whole area from like Reading, MA to Epping/Deerfield, NH has been screwed badly.

NE MA and SE NH is overdue for some big events. All of New England has had it relatively rough the past 5-6 seasons in aggregate, but that area is a pretty decent snowfall climo area that has been shafted worse than most spots relative to climo. It has been the lack of SWFEs and late blooming Miller B storms that is probably the biggest culprits. Those are the ones they clean up on.

Yeah it's my only AN snowfall season since 2017-18. Boston and the immediate coast had AN snow in 2021-22 but nobody west of them did.

2020-21

Didn't you watch the Terminator and Terminator 2 years ago? Skynet is the AI computer that becomes self-aware and tries to destroy humanity.

Not on that depiction but it would probably be a monster storm if we had another few panels. There’s a lot of ways for that storm to work but there’s definitely a meat-grinder/suppression risk too. That’s my biggest concern looking at overnight guidance. That block is a pig. On one level, that block is very likely preventing 1/6 from being a big cutter…the 1/6 shortwave is amplifying quickly out in the plains which wound surely send the system into Ontario without any Atlantic confluence or blocking. But too much of a good thing is a possibility.

Lets go with the ICON solution of the block pinning part of the PV and then doing a partial PV phase with the main shortwave

OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region. My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past.