ORH_wxman

Yeah I'm pretty much ready to punt 1/6-7 after today's 12z suite. It was decidedly the opposite trend we wanted to see. Status quo would've been manageable at this lead time, but trending worse with the confluence just about closes the door. We'd need to see a quick reversal which is unlikely. I might keep an eye out further southwest near NYC but even there is starting to look bleak.

Dec through the New Years retrograde storm was actually a solid period....really shat the bed after that though west of you we did get the epic WINDEX event plus the MLK storm that caused Kevin to have a top 3 meltdown in the history of the forum.

Ukie is still amped....was the most amped at 00z too. It still has confluence problems though at the last second. Does get maybe 2-4" into most of SNE....less further northeast abd maybe a bit more in SW CT.

We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating.

Except the confluence was decidedly stronger on the GFS....ICON is was weaker. Canadian was a bit stronger with confluence.

Too bad we can't phase in one of the PV spokes to get this north....prob the only realistic way to overcome such a stout TPV pinned there.

Canadian has an awesome shortwave which tries to push it north, but still too much confluence.

Way more confluence this run...total opposite trend of the ICON

ICON scrapes the south coast and Cape for 1/6-7....better than 00z but obviously the rest of us need more than that. But good to see a little less confluence this run.

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members.

Still a lot of spread for 1/6 on EPS. The mean is still spreading QPF well up into NNE. Plenty of whiffs on the table too. But we’re still not all that coherent on this one yet.

Well you are the most shamelessly IMBY on here, lol. I’ll tell you, another 3/5-7/01 storm would erase some of those extreme NE MA and SE NH deficits really fast. Some people forget that 2 days after the end of that storm was a late bloomer Miller B that dumped another 6-12” of paste in that same area (might have been more up in Maine). What a ridiculous stretch.

Yes I think it works well in that scenario because the second one has a relatively undisturbed baroclinic zone due to the first getting ground up. Typically, when there’s two close together, that first one will sweep the baroclinic zone out to sea which screws us…but not if you can grind the first one into a pulp before it does that. I’ve been looping a lot of the longer range ensembles and it’s remarkable how stable the longwave ridge out west is on so many individual members right to the end of their runs…it’s one reason I’m really not all that worried if the 1/6-1/7 threat doesn’t work out. This looks like one of those patterns that could produce a lot of chances even beyond the two we’re pseudo-focused on right now. A lot easier to get a hit if you have 4-5 at bats versus just one.

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke.

That look near Jan 10-11 is really a powderkeg. Could easily end up as nothing but the longwave support on that is immense. You have this giant PNA ridge pushing everything so far south.

I actually don’t mind the second shortwave coming behind the other one on the 18z GFS because it allows amplification into the block somewhat. Im not sure it will look like that though given the euro is quite different with a much stronger consolidated shortwave. Either way, needing the confluence to relax a touch isn’t the worst spot to be at D7

Not in this thread. Weenie-ing out over April weather is why we have the December thread.

Def a lot of spread on 1/6…the mean has like 0.1” to the Canadian border but 0.25” down into parts of SNE. So prob a lot of big ones and total whiffs when you have a diffuse look like that on the QPF shield. This is to be expected though considering we are 7-8 days out. It feels like closer because we’ve been talking about that as the first potential event for days now.

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave.

Not get overly emotional on 200 hour OP runs? I can't force people to not get emotional and melt down, but it's legitimately irrational that amount of weight the OP runs get at that time lead. People can wait an hour and look at ensembles. But to each his own....

Has nothing to do with what I said though....I've banging the "suppressed risk" for a couple days now on 1/6. But it is still hilarious to watch people live and die on model PBP at such a ridiculous lead time.

Oh you know people are taking these OP runs fairly seriously. It's quite evident in the discourse.

It would be another 55F rainstorm if we didn't have the NAO. Just need to avoid having too much block which is definitely a risk right now.

Lots of very marginal events where elevation helped the last couple winters.

ORH has had a few shaft jobs the past winter or two too even in storms that hit areas nearby. Feels like they are getting some payback for this 6 winter stretch....that's actually a ridiculous stretch relative to climo (about 70" long term mean).