ORH_wxman

Warmest temps will likely be overnight Thursday into predawn Friday with FROPA. Could spike brief 40F and then temps drop during Friday morning.

Euro was pretty decent this event. Solid front ender. Low end warning criteria for many in SNE.

Euro was def a tick colder than the 06z run.

Weathermodels kept saying it was out to 144 like 10 min ago but none of the maps loaded anything.

06z EPS actually had a lot of redevelopers which kind of surprised me considering the OP run was a bit uglier. Those would both enhance dynamics a bit and prolong the snow before a flip to IP/ZR.

If your goal is double digits in an event, probably mostly disappointment (maybe something bigger happens late month or March)…but it could easily be a lot of 3-6” type events with some 6-10” inchers mixed in ala 2007-08/2008-09.

GFS coming in pretty cold. Decent thump in CT. Looks like advisory snows for most of SNE.

That might be a bit too pessimistic for N CT in both events. Weekend deal also looks a touch colder than Thursday.

Not sure I agree with “low level cold air will not hold for too long” when you’re getting a sfc low tracking south of SNE and over the cape.

It’s pretty good for most of CT too that run. NAM is still mostly useless at this range though so as usual, we wait for the varsity models.

Yep and H7 (while a little less defined) was just inland from south coast during the thump. If the ML warm front is more diffuse and weak, we’re gonna get those ugly lighter rates. But if we can keep those features more defined, then it’s a nice 4-5 hour thump.

You want to be where the ML warm front is…just north of it. The triple point low rides pretty close to it so we’re gonna want it over the Cape/SE MA I think. This run showed a bit more defined bent-back ML warm front than previous runs so I think that’s why it was spitting out better rates. That little vort running out ahead of the main shortwave stayed a bit stronger too which helps with the midlevels.

Nice thumping band for pike on that run.

Forget that. Let’s go this

It does. But it’s not vastly different than Thursday. A little colder on guidance.

0% chance you lose your pack this month where you are.

You can be “safe” and go cold/dry like much of January. Or you can play with fire and reap the rewards (or failure)…but no guts, no glory. This is as good as a pattern as we could ever hope for in a La Niña February.

The funny part about all the pack discourse is it’s prob getting covered again in 48 hours and likely reinforced on Sunday.

3-5 with some IP/ZR has a lot more staying power than C-2…get two of them in a row and then you’re in business for trying to run the table to the end of the month if you can avoid the rogue cutter since there’s prob more threats beyond sunday.

Still looks like 3-4” pike northward but yeah, def skimpier to the south. Euro’s been waffling a decent amount on this one relatively speaking so we’ll see if that is the case again.

Euro and GFS are both pretty similar for SNE. 3-5” on the front end. NAM is staying paltry with the QPF but we’re still about 2-3 cycles away from the NAM being worth looking at.

I had Swiss cheese cover for one day between Jan 11th and the MLK weekend storm…it was that rain on the Saturday that finally punched some holes in the cover. But otherwise it’s been consistent. This past Saturday got a few holes too in the sunny spots. Considering we’ve had like 9-10” total during that stretch, pretty good run to keep cover. Hoping we can actually develop a real pack from this pattern instead of this nickel and dime crap.

I’m not sure if it’s going to be a consistent bias in modeling, but when you have very dense arctic low level airmasses in place, it’s a decent recipe for colder corrections on model guidance. Especially if you have some semblance of high resistance to the north or northeast. If you don’t, then that midlevel warm punch can scream in quickly. (Sometimes it does anyway) But it’s been a few winters since we had a lot of consistent arctic cold anchored over our region prior to storms coming out of the OH valley.

More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast.

Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”.