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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the euro has been more consistent with light snows. I think it maybe had advisory snows for a run but it’s been mostly in that 1-3” range except last night when it went with flurries. GFS has been all over the map from warning snows to nothing.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Lol I wouldn’t get too excited but it’s a band of 1-2”….it would at least give a good chunk of the area a White Xmas
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro likes Xmas Eve over SNE. Looks better than last nights run.
  4. ORH_wxman
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yes....1/4/18
  6. ORH_wxman
    RGEM moving east too...12z suite definitely saw something that is causing the eastward bump.
  7. ORH_wxman
    The 06z Euro is more impressive than the NAM now
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yep, back SE
  9. ORH_wxman
    One more bump NW at 12z puts much of eastern zones in the CCB. But can’t afford any regression on the trend.
  10. ORH_wxman
    The CF enhanced area seems to be showing up a lot. Euro hasn’t really bought it yet…at least not to that extent.
  11. ORH_wxman
    The old SREFs made up of ETA and RSM models were actually half-decent synoptically. The newer stuff with ARW and NMB members are really good with short term convection but they go crazy synoptically. Just not their design.
  12. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS isn’t any better either. It still has that CF enhanced area and introduces a bit of PVA to maybe help out. But the main goods are still comfortably offshore unlike NAM and short range stuff.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Only stretch on record where ORH managed 3 winters of 100”+ in 4 seasons. (We came close to repeating that between 2000-01 and 2004-05 when we did 3 out of 5)
  14. ORH_wxman
    Cape and adjacent SE MA gets a grazing blow from the CCB. Prob a moderate event there
  15. ORH_wxman
    Oh jeez. Just when we’re trying to let go of the larger solution. This run very well might get the CCB into SE areas.
  16. ORH_wxman
    We develop a defacto west based -NAO though shortly after Xmas, so I wouldn't be shocked to see some blocky/wacky solutions between now and then. Here's today's Euro between D8-11....you can see all those higher heights up in Canada expanding into the NAO domain....its not your classic NAO ridge back building from the Atlantic, but it may still offer some chances for storms provided the colder airmass gets trapped a bit underneath it
  17. ORH_wxman
    Good luck....I'd prob go a C-1" there....leaning toward C at the moment.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that looks mostly like white rain....maybe if you got above 1200 or 1500 feet it would be better, but that's not what you want to see for accumulations.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Euro wasn't any help at 12z....it is showing that IVT band from NY moving east during the morning on Saturday though, as some other guidance was showing, so might be a period of light snow for a chunk of SNE from that.
  20. ORH_wxman
    We've been reduced to debating the 200 hour OP GFS run.
  21. ORH_wxman
    GEM has the event too...decent snow on Xmas Eve and overnight into Xmas morning.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Wrong thread for it, but Xmas Eve/Xmas is starting to look more and more interesting.
  23. ORH_wxman
    At least we're getting good accurate descriptions of the last few winters in this thread.
  24. ORH_wxman
    If this CF sets up with a bit of easterly flow over the top, it might do that from your area to mine....I could see 2-4" happening. The problem is the setup is delicate, so just assume it won't work out until we're closer....but it's a plausible scenario....and yes, a derivative of fraud five, but once in a while they throw you a bone.
  25. ORH_wxman
    What a waste of a very healthy shortwave.
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