ORH_wxman

We’ve had plenty of goodies that were 12 hour storms. Last March is an example...heck, 3/14/18 was basically a 12 hour job. 1/27/11 and 2/5/01 were fast movers too. If you get ripping dynamics, you can get crushed in a 10-12 hour storm. Of course, let’s first get this to a point where we are confident of a hit. This could definitely still whiff as the euro eloquently shows us.

First flakes to last flakes could be 18+ but the real snow is definitely shorter than that. Which is fine. We’ve had plenty of big storms that were 12 hour jobs.

Yep. This one ain’t sticking around for 24 hours.

It’s def about the ensembles right now. Especially with all those shortwaves trying to interact. Using OP runs at this stage will make you mad.

Ukie tends to torch the lower levels way too easy in coastals. Kind of doubt youd have 40F rain with that setup over 128 in MA.

GGEM is a whiff SE. maybe scrapes the Cape.

Def a bit pasty. Though just looking at it synoptically my guess is that it wouldn’t be as pasty as the GFS thinks.

Yeah good storm for all of SNE but a total crush job for E MA there.

Big hit for a lot of folks this run.

No you probably don’t want a total complete phase...at least before it reaches our longitude. I think it’s unlikely given the fairly fast flow and lack of downstream blocking but if everything lines up perfect it is plausible. Most of those are probably partial phases of caring degrees which is going to be a good thing for a lot of the forum.

Lol, I wouldn’t say it’s THAT desperate yet. Maybe if it doesn’t improve by Wednesday.

It could easily still end up as an interior job. It’s within the envelope. Especially at 5+ days out. I just wouldn’t be throwing down even money on that type of solution....your Vegas favorites are the eastern ones.

Except for the ones that didn’t. There’s no reason to totally ignore guidance.

You definitely would rather be east than west at this point...the ensembles on all guidance show this. But it can obviously still change...that's just what the landscape looks like at day 6. If you hate uncertainty, then log off for 3 days and then check back in...the guidance will have a lot more confidence at day 3.

Could be 395 too....or 495. Or 95.

That's a pretty reasonable EPS look at this point...I think it tells us a lot in terms of the probabilities right now. You're prob looking at 40% odds or so of something close enough for eastern areas and less than that for western areas.

It wouldn't surprise me if the EC still has the SW US bias....maybe just not as intense as it used to be. I remember looking for more information on newer versions of the ECMWF last winter, but the latest I could find was 2011 or 2012 and it still had the bias back then of heights too low on D+3 forecast over the SW CONUS.

Euro is close....but no cigar. Euro is definitely burying more energy than all the other guidance, so we'll see if it trends to releasing more going forward.

One of the southern stream events of the past that scarred me for a long time was one that crushed SE MA in a marginal airmass. Feb 28 - Mar 1, 2005..... Not what you would intuitively guess for a southern streamer in a marginal airmass, but they got like 15" of snow in 5 hours while our 10-12" forecast turned into 5-6" in ORH at verification time.

Today is as good a day as any.

I don't think we "need" it...but I do agree I'd rather have N stream all else equal. Probably a better storm that way dynamically speaking....but something like the Ukie would get it done.

Yeah Ukie goes nuts with the front-running southern vort. Good hit though. I'm skeptical of that look though.

I like the overall look a 114 hours on the GFS...the southern stream is in the mix but not bonkers and you have the potent N stream diving in to set it off. Regardless of what happens on the run verbatim, that's the overall look you want to see. Happens on several of our biggies including Feb 2013.

We've been reduced to asking for ICON maps at day 6.

It's too bad that newer NW Weymouth coop doesn't have good snow depth data....they had some choppy readings....they had 24 inches on 2/5 and then recorded 27.8" in the Feb 7-9 storm and then had another 14.5" in the Feb 14-15 storm but never recorded the depth again that winter. Though Blue Hill had even better numbers and I think their peak depth was 46 inches. Gets hard to add depth once you are up in that range. You really want higher water content snow at that point mixed into the pack. These were mostly powder.