ORH_wxman

Pretty big weenie run for eastern SNE. Just another solution though at this time range.

Oh I didn’t claim it wasn’t. The stats are plain as day. That’s why it’s called the crime wave of the 80s and early 90s. Its just the media hyped it. Scared the shit out of kids. Lol.

Meh...the media has done this for years. When I was growing up in the 1980s and early 1990s....everything was about the crime wave in the US. I started getting terrified for a while about robbers when was about 8. Shootings, kidnappings, home invasions, etc, etc. You would have thought you couldn’t walk to school without worrying about a murderer for a while. But we learned pretty quickly even as kids...the news media hypes. We still went outside and played ball. This is not that different. Climate change is a problem that needs a solution but the hype generally outweighs the true magnitude of the problem. I saw a news headline recently about what the state of the oceans would be by the 2050s. I clicked on the paper it was referencing and the news headline was based on an RCP 8.5 scenario from a CMIP5 climate model in the paper. I immediately laughed and closed the link. For those who aren’t as well-versed in the climate literature, an RCP 8.5 scenario is considered the worst case scenario. For example, it assumes we’re going to have 7 times the coal CO2 emissions as we do now despite the fact that coal emissions have peaked. In short, it’s a totally unrealistic scenario. My advice...never use the mainstream media for complex science in general. I also agree with Chris about the PV. I remember hearing it last year when that ridiculous January outbreak hit he Midwest. Of course, as usual, the media acted like the PV was something really weird and rare.

I moved all the climate weenie talk to the banter thread. Carry on over there...

Alright we can take the climate weenie discussion to banter.

Yeah I was fine with 00z. It was model noise to me. Now if we see a distinct trend of it getting worse then I’d worry about it. Even back when we saw the amazing progged pattern 2 weeks ago there were slight oscillations between each run before the real trend started toward garbage. The pattern isn’t perfect...ridge is a little west and the Atlantic remains largely garbage...tries to pop east-based ridging at times but meh.... Still, early to mid February is just about peak snow climo and a pretty decent pattern is fine with me. Just look up first half of Feb 2017 or Feb 2014. Those were basically dateline ridging and garbage NAO but we got crushed. Or hell, I don’t wanna start getting weenies riled up, but this isn’t perfection either...granted, I think we need to amplify the AK ridging a bit more to get a similar look but the ridge is probably a bit west of ideal

Yeah the 11-15 held steady. Looks good. I wouldn’t say it looks overwhelmingly great, but far better than we’ve had.

Yeah I’ve seen the air crash investigation show on that crash. Definitely some fault with ATC too but the crew never officially declared an emergency to ATC and they get more of the blame. Some of it was probably language too...standard language is English in aviation community for decades though in 1990 it was probably less widespread than now even though you had to know it. The crew kept asking for “priority” without saying the word “emergency”. The captain didn’t know English very well and the first officer did all of the communication. Also, the flight engineer should have told the captain and FO on the first landing attempt that this was it....they had to get it down then...there wasn’t enough fuel left to do a go-around but he never said anything. Tragic accident that didn’t have to happen.

Yeah....this. Some pretty horrendous posts lately about 168 or 204 hour solutions. Maybe we need to make a model thread again like before subforums. A place to discuss OP clown range solutions.

Those OP runs have a bit of a 2/13/14 feel to them. Keep in mind that ensembles are significantly further east right now and of the late bloomer variety.

Guidance is kind of the opposite WRT NAO and pacific. NAO looks mostly putrid still while PAC goes wild. Could change obviously.

You obviously want to see some consistency on the ensembles. They have absolutely been trending better and better the last 2-3 runs out in the 11-15...today was by far the best. There’s actually a pretty good PV split showing up in the stratosphere...not sure the prog 2 weeks ago ever had that much stratospheric support as good as H5 looked. I’d say I’m cautiously optimistic. There’s no reason to just ignore the EPS guidance. Dont go all-in either. If we’re getting this inside of 8-9 days and the 11-15 beyond that hasn’t regressed, then you can start chucking them weenies.

Here comes the EPS again in the longer range. It’s definitely shoving the PV down into our hemisphere now with the EPO dump.

Yeah that was definitely an A. Took a wide turn.

Signal is there on ensembles but obviously quite a bit weaker than the OP...which is no surprise when you are 7-8 days out.

Feb 1958, Dec 1960, Dec 1969, Jan 1978, Feb 1983, March 1993, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, Dec 2009, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 2014...just a few that come to mind off top of my head that did pretty well in at least parts of SNE But I’d still rather have a Miller B.

This is actually a good way to view the “threat”. Just ignore it for several days and then see what it looks like if its even still there.

It would be mostly snow just off the coast in E MA (prob near 128) and SW CT would do well but that is a classic setup for rain from SE CT to S RI and most of SE MA. Gonna change about 15 more times so totally useless anyway.

That’s mostly liquid in the coast. Not that it matters but just sayin.

Not really. As long as people know what it means. The term is relative...Storms like 1/12/11 would’ve hit us like 10 different ways....maybe for places like the cape it was more precarious but that block was forcing that sucker underneath us with varying intensities and orientation of the shortwave. Other storms are literally like an unmanned firehose and you see a lot more variation and sensitivity to the model initialization. That’s really the key...how sensitive is the solution to small changes in the initial conditions?

Well they had close to 2 feet on central/eastern Long Island IIRC. How far is that from northeast NJ?

Yeah it was the western outlier but still only about a 30-40 mile miss? It just happened to occur over probably the most densely populated 400 square mile area in the country that receives winter wx so it seemed a lot worse than it was from an empirical standpoint.

That was a good storm to illustrate where going with the outlier is very risky. I remember NWS OKX was buying the euro. Ill be interested to see what I said in the thread that ginxy linked but I remember being somewhat skeptical of the euro by the time we were inside 36 hours. RGEM actually really did well on that storm IIRC. Showed the real strong deformation/fronto band from 495 to ORH to Eastern CT where is exactly where it ended up. It had a good winter overall.

No. March 2018

Yeah I wouldn’t hate that...maybe run the ensembles out to d15 once per day or something though. Just to get a feel for longer range trends. But OP runs really aren’t that useful beyond D4....I could buy maybe running them out to d5-6 but not beyond that. There’s no really use for an OP run at 168 hours or 204 hours. IIRC...It used to be something like 72-84 hours when the OP models started outperforming the ensembles on the WPF parameter but I’m not sure these days.