ORH_wxman

The last event literally trended 600 miles northwest in about a 48 hour period. Granted, slower pattern....but this doesn't need 600 miles either.

Because it's an emotional response and not a scientific one.

Ukie still a pretty good hit for eastern areas (minus the bias of flooding the marine air) and Maine/SE NH. Advisory type event in western third to half of SNE.

Ukie is way flatter with the ridge at 84 hours...definitely gonna be east of that zonked 00z run. But will still probably hit us with a snow event.

I'd expect the Ukie to come southeast given how amped it was at 00z. If we get that model coming SE and the Euro going NW, then it's not a bad spot at this point.

Its the equivalent of posting in the southeast forum about New England snow threats. I'm sure they'd take that pretty well.

Not anywhere near here.

Speed/progressive flow has always been a big issue with this one. It's why I was skeptical of the hugger solutions yesterday. But this still has room to be a good storm...GFS trended poorly, but GEM got better...they are similar skill.

Looks like a scraper on GEM.

GEM looks quite a bit more amped through 90 hours.

Lets do a repeat of Jan 7-8

Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east.

12z GFS looks like it's going to be east of 06z. Might even whiff.

We will welcome you with open arms when you are ready to leave 2005 behind.

Old run...06z was solidly east

That's a cold look in New England.

Yeah it looks good. They improved from 12z yesterday a bit.

There's going to be some shifting as the shortwaves get closer to shore and come onshore...and not the just the shortwaves, but other features like the jet streaks that are going to be pummeling the west coast and affecting the ridging, etc.

I don't really think the pattern looked anything like Dec '89 anyway. Certainly not for the incredibly long sustained period that year was. We did have a pretty good cold period late Nov/eearly Dec but it lasted about 2-3 weeks and way less intense. I'm not nearly as much of a fan of ignoring analogs as you are...difference in opinion I guess. Seeing a who's who of past epic snow patterns when looking at analogs of the ensembles in 2015 gave me confidence in a very good period. Maybe you're referring strictly to ENSO though...

Heh....except the historic cold in December....most areas were near average temps in Dec. This February is looking a lot more promising than Feb 1990....but obviously things can still change. We did come pretty close to matching the putrid January 1990.

Agreed....and nobody controls the weather so the whole discussion is really dumb anyway. Most people hate rainy days in general....time for the farmers to get angry at people who wish for dry conditions on a weekend in May?

Honestly, I'd rather have cirrus than cold rain in a vacuum....so can't blame that line of thinking. But I'm also a skier and sympathetic to the ski community, so I would personally rather have a hugger that gives me ptype issues than a whiff and see ski country get buried....but for those who are not skiers, I wouldn't hold it against them to rather have overcast or cirrus instead of a 34F pounding rainstorm.

Are we ignoring the shift west it had at 06z?

00z had a pretty good cluster of lows that was actually tracking over E MA and even coastal Maine. Looks like we’ve lost most of those members and we’ve added more total whiffs.

06z eps are coming in east of the 00z run.