ORH_wxman

Depends on what happens today and tonight on guidance. I mean, if we get consecutive amped trends today and tonight...making 3 cycles in a row, then we probably know already. But if we’re going back and forth, then yeah, we might not know until tomorrow or tomorrow night.

No but the guidance last night was less bullish...the mesolows were not pointing in as favorable direction as 12z. That would mean less refreshing drain so you rise slowly to 33F. We’ll see what happens today. Haven’t had any consistency. 06z euro came in a hair more sheared after 00z was zonked. Still not as good as 18z run yesterday though.

00z guidance definitely all ticked less sheared and therefore more west and warmer with this week. There’s been no consistent trend at all from run to run on this. We’ll see if we start getting some more consistent movement at 12z. The moisture seems to come in two slugs. The first one is early Thursday. That has looked mostly frozen/freezing at least over interior...varying degrees of snow on the front end depending on model. Then there’s a bit of a break and next round of real stuff is Friday...maybe late Thursday night. That’s the one that really could have a lot of QPF with it. Overnight it was mostly rain for SNE and even into a chunk of CNE/NNE depending on model...but should that end up ice or snow, it’s got high end potential.

GFS coming back in a little more amped again. Very subtle changes out in the southwest but they matter.

Two crappy models trying to figure out the timing and magnitude of the ejecting energy. The good models are having a hard enough time with it...

Yeah it is.

Def flatter than 12z. Prob several inches on the front end in SNE and likely some interior icing on this run...but again, expect changes

More sheared on 18z euro. Results in a colder/flatter look by 90h.

Not surprising. Kevin has always yearned getting that massive ice storm ever since he got so close in 2008 but missed by 1-2F. That was a crusher for him and he’s been obsessed with getting one ever since.

Yes that is the lowest record high of any date for BOS.

It could still snow in this. Or end up more torchy and rain. Trends today have been colder though so that’s a good sign. Still a long ways to go.

Yeah and it’s the Shape/trajectory of them...they protrude to the northeast in the waters east of MA and into gulf of Maine. That’s a classic advection southwestward of lower dews/temps...versus, say, the isobars going more ENE over the islands and pointing that direction. Both would be CAD setups but the latter is a bit more of an in-situ while the former is a lot more active.

Good luck going above freezing over interior in that look

Well today’s runs we’re pretty icy look over interior SNE. Esp interior MA but prob N CT too. Well see what tonight brings. I liken of lean sheared right now but all it takes is a southern stream on steroids to change it.

This has a chance to produce a lot of qpf. Remains to be seen if it actually does but there’s gulf moisture in this.

Yes. Weaker and flatter. That’s good for a colder look though. More overrunning look.

Yeah I’m leaning that way too. Fast flow with big gradient...that’s not conductive to deeper phased solutions. But we’ll see. Seems like we roll a lot of snake eyes this winter. But no reason to start throwing away money by betting on snake eyes again just because it happened a few times previously.

Here’s the subtle change at H5 that manifests itself later on....more sheared and positively tilted. Not a massive change but it causes a big shift in the sensible wx later on

Euro is a little more sheared than 00z but still not as much as some other guidance. But it did tick that direction.

Yeah most of the guidance today actually has that menacing look of all those mesolows going off into Cape Cod Bay and up into the gulf of Maine. Doesn’t get much more classic than that for icing look...maybe we hold the high in a little longer in a perfect setup...but those mesolows are sort of making up for it as they act to advect down the cold Maine dews. Were also starting to see a second high pressure build in from the NW late in the game...might have to watch that. It’s in response to the more sheared look in the upper lakes and Midwest.

Prob a grid collapser all the way back into ORH and maybe even N CT this run...ignoring 2m temps on GFS. That mesolow sig is classic. Prob ice almost to 128 or even closer in E MA for a time. Again...it’ll change more before verification. But those mesolows oriented NE to SW are absolutely classic ice storm look.

Yikes that’s a big icing look on the GFS after a little snow on Thursday.

GFS having trouble figuring out that first wave. Pretty flat this run on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Eh...I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those getting invested in the colder solution when it was 120+ hours out....maybe I’m just giving tough love to everyone, lol. I’ll get invested if it’s cold inside 84 hours.

It’s a Thursday/Thursday night event. There could be a weaker wave ahead of it but the real meat isn’t until d4+