ORH_wxman

Not surprising. Kevin has always yearned getting that massive ice storm ever since he got so close in 2008 but missed by 1-2F. That was a crusher for him and he’s been obsessed with getting one ever since.

Yes that is the lowest record high of any date for BOS.

It could still snow in this. Or end up more torchy and rain. Trends today have been colder though so that’s a good sign. Still a long ways to go.

Yeah and it’s the Shape/trajectory of them...they protrude to the northeast in the waters east of MA and into gulf of Maine. That’s a classic advection southwestward of lower dews/temps...versus, say, the isobars going more ENE over the islands and pointing that direction. Both would be CAD setups but the latter is a bit more of an in-situ while the former is a lot more active.

Good luck going above freezing over interior in that look

Well today’s runs we’re pretty icy look over interior SNE. Esp interior MA but prob N CT too. Well see what tonight brings. I liken of lean sheared right now but all it takes is a southern stream on steroids to change it.

This has a chance to produce a lot of qpf. Remains to be seen if it actually does but there’s gulf moisture in this.

Yes. Weaker and flatter. That’s good for a colder look though. More overrunning look.

Yeah I’m leaning that way too. Fast flow with big gradient...that’s not conductive to deeper phased solutions. But we’ll see. Seems like we roll a lot of snake eyes this winter. But no reason to start throwing away money by betting on snake eyes again just because it happened a few times previously.

Here’s the subtle change at H5 that manifests itself later on....more sheared and positively tilted. Not a massive change but it causes a big shift in the sensible wx later on

Euro is a little more sheared than 00z but still not as much as some other guidance. But it did tick that direction.

Yeah most of the guidance today actually has that menacing look of all those mesolows going off into Cape Cod Bay and up into the gulf of Maine. Doesn’t get much more classic than that for icing look...maybe we hold the high in a little longer in a perfect setup...but those mesolows are sort of making up for it as they act to advect down the cold Maine dews. Were also starting to see a second high pressure build in from the NW late in the game...might have to watch that. It’s in response to the more sheared look in the upper lakes and Midwest.

Prob a grid collapser all the way back into ORH and maybe even N CT this run...ignoring 2m temps on GFS. That mesolow sig is classic. Prob ice almost to 128 or even closer in E MA for a time. Again...it’ll change more before verification. But those mesolows oriented NE to SW are absolutely classic ice storm look.

Yikes that’s a big icing look on the GFS after a little snow on Thursday.

GFS having trouble figuring out that first wave. Pretty flat this run on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Eh...I don’t have a lot of sympathy for those getting invested in the colder solution when it was 120+ hours out....maybe I’m just giving tough love to everyone, lol. I’ll get invested if it’s cold inside 84 hours.

It’s a Thursday/Thursday night event. There could be a weaker wave ahead of it but the real meat isn’t until d4+

Sure...but you were on the line to begin with. Small changes in ejection of energy will lead to a noticeable sensible wx change. It could easily subtly shift back and then everyone will claim it was a massive model change. If you are only looking through the lens of sensible wx, that’s true...and I guess most are. But from a modeling standpoint it isn’t a big shift. It’s why so many of is were saying how the solutions would probably be pretty volatile with just small changes. Bottom line....keeping the southern energy very consolidated and robust is going to equal warmer solutions while shearing out just a bit could produce much colder solutions. Theres also the timing of the first wave which effects the 2nd one and where the boundary sets up.

Yeah the southern stream is digging a little more and staying more coherent. 12z yesterday was a little more sheared. We’ve seen these subtle change flip from run to run but it ends up mattering for the snow (moreso than the ice)

Yeah we’ll agree to disagree. These were relatively minor changes aloft that just had a bigger sensible wx change. Mostly on the GFS. Euro really didn’t change a lot.

Yeah that was a widespread event but not super damaging. But there were def some scattered power outages. Feb 1989 had a decent ice event too.

I honestly felt embarrassed reading through it. It’s not like we have a bunch of newbie posters either. There’s going to be some sensible wx swings even on just slight upper air changes. I think a lot of it is people deep down started at least half-believing the snowiest model runs yesterday and allowed themselves to get emotionally invested. No other real reason to explain the reactions this morning.

Thread is totally irrational this morning. Modeling didn’t even change that much for this coming week unless you were buying the OP GFS yesterday that showed a lot of snow. Even then it’s a slight change in timing of energy ejection that could produce a lot more snow. Half of these posts should just be flat out deleted. Making binary calls on an unstable setup at 4+ days out.

There could be a pretty nasty icing event over the interior on this with the mesolow look showing up on all guidance.

The Moosehead and Baxter state park areas of Maine make the white mountain national forest feel like Manhattan. I haven’t been yet, but even deeper into the Allagash backcountry up there north and west of BSP and you’re starting to get into one of the most isolated places in the CONUS...only the least populated areas of the west could challenge. I’m sure tamarack has been deep into those woods more than many. Some of the resident snow mobilers like dryslot too maybe.