ORH_wxman

Def showing some phase though....that's a big difference form earlier EPS runs.

It phased these two shortwaves....which no other run has been doing. Probably overly aggressive. Euro seems to like to dive the northern stream too much at times...Tip often talks about this bias, but it would be relevant here.

Yeah...CP in SNE has almost no shot...interior SNE has a faint shot if things line up perfectly....NNE has a real shot, but still there could be issues if the Euro solution happens. I'm pretty skeptical of the Euro solution though.

Rains to St. Agatha...Randy and Zwyts throwing their laptops out the window on I-95 in Maine

Euro went with the bolded part.

Not far off....prob like SLK this run.

Lol, the Euro is going to phase the southern stream with the *first* northern stream shortwave.

12z Ukie is a Randolph Roof Collapser. Not quite enough for interior SNE.

You can see the GGEM has a little bit of a better synoptic setup than the GFS up in Quebec....little high trying to feed down and entrained just enough cold air.

It's too bad the southern stream is ejecting now rather than getting buried in the southwest. That northern stream shortwave is diving like crazy on today's runs for Dec 7-8, but it can't produce with the wave interference from 12/5-6.

GGEM is more interesting for the interior on Sat night/Sunday.

Ugh....I wouldn't forgive him either for missing that storm. That was one of the all timers.

Well the GFS gets it done for St Agatha.

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system. Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough. So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

12/5-12/6 is a hail mary. Absolutely putrid airmass.

You'll have to post pics of your sheltered side of the house later in winter. I bet in late winter/earl spring (like March/April) you have situations where there's like 3-4 feet on one side of the house and that open field with southern exposure is already getting some holes in it.

Lol...he knows what I said was true.

Welcome back to La Nina model performance.

The Dec 10-20 period definitely has some potential. Keep that PNA ridging more stout like on the 12z ensemble runs today and it will give a better shot at a legit coastal vs overrunning/SWFEs/clipper redevelopers.

It’s all good. I have a sickness in remembering storm dates like one would remember birthdays of loved ones.

The end of January storm was garbage northeast of about a BDL-PVD line. Storm ran into a brick wall. I think we had about 3-4” of arctic sand from it. Ditto PVD and BOS did even worse. It was a good storm though for the south coast and the southwest half of CT where they cleaned up.

With the caveat that the weeklies have been almost clueless so far this cold season.....it looks like they are pretty solid through week 3 with a colder pattern....then they break things down to a more classical La Nina look with eastern ridging. Though my guess is that if the EPS trends today are real, then Thursday's weeklies will show a more amplified pattern lasting longer.

46 knots at that pit in OWD is pretty impressive.

No, that was Feb 7, 2003....one year earlier. The '03-'04 winter was more frustration than anything for snow outside of the 12/5-7/03 event (even where I was, it was frustrating, lol), but it definitely had the epic January 2004 cold. The winter before in 2002-2003 seemed to go right every time there was a chance. That was also a brutally cold winter, but didn't quite have the peak cold that 2004 did.

Pretty hard to dunk on this look right now on the EPS. This is the evolution after the 12/7-8 threat.