ORH_wxman

I didn’t bother looking at it. I almost never do.

Yeah they are garbage for the midatlantic but actually not bad for New England. Plenty of cold nearby. It’s classic gradient. Everyone here should know it by now...sometimes you get hammered for a while and sometimes you can’t catch a break.

60-72h RGEM cooled quite a bit from 12z. Prob the only colder trend I’ve seen all day...and it’s clown range RGEM.

Good grief people...let’s keep at least somewhat on topic. We can’t control the weather so keep the wish lists to banter and focus on February pattern/weather discussion in here.

Tons of cold just north....it's a classic gradient pattern. Hopefully it breaks our way, and certainly breaks NNE's way for good skiing.

Here's the pattern on EPS going forward after the 2/9 "threat"

EPS keeping the general pattern the same going forward with the gradient look....massive EPO ridging but also a monster +AO and SE ridge. Very active look....there will be a lot of chances and plenty of cold up in the source region. It's going to be about getting lucky on the timing of confluence, etc.

I hate 40F+ in winter....unfrozen ground and mud sucks. I agree I hate brutal cold with no snow...but for me, like 30F is ideal. Keep ground frozen and ponds frozen. If the ground was able to dry out, then it's fine, but it just doesn't do that in winter very often...too much old snow and ice crap runoff. Anyways.....EPS have the 2/9 system. We'll see how long it takes for that to disappear.

It's two different waves people were talking about....the Thursday wave was further north, but Friday came south some.

Gave a bit of a better thump on the snow on the front, but it doesn't stop the warmer solution after that.

Euro is going to come in more amped...definite trend today on the 12z guidance of more consolidated energy. This continues the 00z trend....we're starting to get a consistent movement that doesn't flip-flop every run. We'll see if 00z tonight continues that...if it does, then I think we have a confident forecast for this one.

Solid overcast here and 40F...pretty much pure dogshit. Reminds me of late March or early April.

Something like the GGEM would be a much bigger problem for icing over the interior. You want to see that mesolow protruding northeast off E MA and into the Gulf of maine.

GFS ripping the primary further west and stronger....this will be a warmer run. Consolidating the energy out west as it ejects...less sheared.

Yeah I'd hedge liquid at the moment, but it wouldn't take a large change to completely flip that on its head.

Yeah the mesolow aspect of this may not be figured out for a quite a while. IT's so fickle but it would have huge consequences for snesible wx....you get a little cold tuck behind the nose of the mesolow going off Boston and into gulf of Maine and all of the sudden you aren't going to be latently warming...keep that in place for round 2 (which looks like it could be a big QPF producer) and you have legit ice storm concerns. My guess is that stuff will become clearer in the next 24-36 hours....either it will be obvious we don't have the setup for a replenishing dewpoint drain...so we see a slow rise to 33F rain, or this thing shows its hand on being a colder scenario.

I was gonna say....I had over 90 inches in 2017-2018....lol

Depends on what happens today and tonight on guidance. I mean, if we get consecutive amped trends today and tonight...making 3 cycles in a row, then we probably know already. But if we’re going back and forth, then yeah, we might not know until tomorrow or tomorrow night.

No but the guidance last night was less bullish...the mesolows were not pointing in as favorable direction as 12z. That would mean less refreshing drain so you rise slowly to 33F. We’ll see what happens today. Haven’t had any consistency. 06z euro came in a hair more sheared after 00z was zonked. Still not as good as 18z run yesterday though.

00z guidance definitely all ticked less sheared and therefore more west and warmer with this week. There’s been no consistent trend at all from run to run on this. We’ll see if we start getting some more consistent movement at 12z. The moisture seems to come in two slugs. The first one is early Thursday. That has looked mostly frozen/freezing at least over interior...varying degrees of snow on the front end depending on model. Then there’s a bit of a break and next round of real stuff is Friday...maybe late Thursday night. That’s the one that really could have a lot of QPF with it. Overnight it was mostly rain for SNE and even into a chunk of CNE/NNE depending on model...but should that end up ice or snow, it’s got high end potential.

GFS coming back in a little more amped again. Very subtle changes out in the southwest but they matter.

Two crappy models trying to figure out the timing and magnitude of the ejecting energy. The good models are having a hard enough time with it...

Yeah it is.

Def flatter than 12z. Prob several inches on the front end in SNE and likely some interior icing on this run...but again, expect changes

More sheared on 18z euro. Results in a colder/flatter look by 90h.