ORH_wxman

Pretty sure the ASOS METAR reports flat ice....it's not radial ice. So it would be the equivalent of like 0.10-0.15 of radial ice on tree limbs.

The GFS will vomit all over itself the next time it has a low hitting us and the Euro is too far southeast.

Man, Euro is zonked even more with round 2....best looks like from Montreal down through SLK and SYR.

Mesolow can make up for it a bit by shoving the lower DP air from Maine back southwest.....but we haven't developed the mesolow yet far enough north....doesn't really get into the waters E of BOS and gulf of Maine until late afternoon/tonight....that's when we could see a bit of a shove back SW with the below freezing air. The current icing setup has latently warmed to the point where it is now only an elevation event. Most of the below freezing readings remaining are in ORH county now at elevation.

We’ll see you back in on the next threat. It might take you longer to get sucked in, but you’ll be in. No question about it. You can’t leave.

She’s not gonna let us out. Several more systems of getting sucked in because that is the way the pattern is going to be. Almost better to have a pig in AK because at least you don’t get teased as often.

ZR and 29 here but rising steadily.

I’m becoming more bullish on cold drain but I’m going the MPM route of worrying about QPF if you’re rooting for a higher impact ice storm. It looks like a mundane glaze of a quarter inch or less on many of these runs. There’s still some runs that have higher but they are becoming less in the model ensemble.

Yeah I could see us getting dryslotted for like 18 straight hours while freezing drizzle over the interior and that really heavy qpf stays around the south coast of SNE. That’s been a possibility.

The Friday stuff has a PF to Rangeley look when examining the midlevels. It’s trying to collapse SE pretty fast late in the game but I think by the time it does it’s mostly scraps. Maybe a few inches in your ‘hood at the end of it can do it quick enough.

That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway.

I mean, yeah...they get a lot of snow. But those true 12-18 (with higher jacks) deformation/fronto bombs are not that common. Further east definitely gets more of those...esp recently. So I get the excitement of those.

March ‘17 was great there but that was the last one that really deformed up in N VT?....unless I’m not remembering one from last winter or ‘17-‘18. SNE has had a few since then including Jan ‘18, Mar ‘18 and the 4-6 hour snowbomb over E Ma/RI last year. Last year was SWFEs for PF...lots of 6-10 inchers and of course the upslope fluffers. But cmon man, you know as well as I those don’t match those 12-18 (maybe higher) deformation/fronto storms. Ill say that your area has def been screwed for a while versus further east in SNE.

Congrats man. You’ve been waiting for one of these for a while. You have plenty of wiggle room....so unless you get married to 18+, you won’t be disappointed.

Euro looks pretty tucky over interior SNE. Gonna have to brace for some ice I think.

NAM is full of shit for Friday. Sell that and expect tracks near BOS/PSM. This is a powderfreak storm. But the mesos may have a good idea on locking in the cold at the sfc. Still gotta watch for siggy ice.

The cold look at the sfc inland definitely makes sense from a meteorological standpoint. When you have mesolows moving off E MA and into the gulf of Maine, you have no mechanism for warming other than latent heat release...but the position of those mesolows will act to drain lower dews to offset the latent heat...the question is which one is stronger. (Usually the mesolows win when they are in that position)

Well probably down there...yeah. Up here in this part of SNE often gets teased in gradient patterns. Sometimes we score well too. Sometimes it’s missing by 25-40 miles like last year in several systems.

Lol you were talking up big ice there yesterday. You’ll be back on the wagon when the next threat teases.

00z to 12z 2/4 had a few runs of 2-2.5 on various model guidance.

This one’s not gonna let us out. Gradient pattern means plenty more chances to get teased and tricked into getting invested in a nice looking solution.

It trending that way though. Some of that QPF is snow/sleet so the ZR component is going to be less impactful. We really want to see those 2-2.5 QPF runs return if we’re talking high end. It could still be pretty treacherous. Like a quarter to half inch of ice. But we’ll see. Might be less if that QPF hole keeps expanding.

QPF is further south now which may mitigate the really big ice threat over interior MA/S NH.

06z NAM trended back south with part 2 but doesn’t look like other 06z guidance moved much....so tossed for now. If the GFS verified, that would be low impact for just about anyone south of dendrite to Mitch....very little QPF on that model. Even other guidance has lessened the QPF though nothing like the GFS. That really heavy stuff stays on the south coast or just offshore so the risk for big time icing is diminishing if that is the case.

I don’t see ageo east at all. That’s def north ageo...the actual wind might be NE or ENE but the ageo component is north. Heres during the heavy stuff