ORH_wxman

Iced up here. Pretty nasty out. Temps slowly rising again though.

ORH has ticked back to 31F. ASH down to 30F.

Looks like some cold drain has commenced in NE MA and S NH. ASH and MHT have dropped the past hour and the mesonets are dropping pretty quickly around there too. We’ll have to see how much push that has.

I think radial is even lower than that...its close to 0.4 ratio to flat ice. It does vary a little bit depending on conditions, but if you take the average accretion efficiency of the two then you get around a 0.4 ratio of radial to flat. But either way...I agree 0.75 flat would be a good number because that is when damage starts to accelerate.

0.75 would be a good number too since that would be like a third of an inch of radial ice. You start getting the power issues around that mark...I've always noticed around 1/3 to 3/8 when the damae starts accelerating....which made me think that 1/2 radial was too steep a criteria for ice storm warning. .

This matches what my memory is from 2008....I was almost certain they were forecasting and reporting in radial ice back then, but I wasn't 100% sure since I didn't look at the NWS forecast in great detail....I was mostly on here going back and forth with Ekster on how many people would be without power the next day.

I know old school for everyone used to be radial ice. Current NWS forecasts for elevated horizontal ice....which is flat ice. I'm not sure how long they have done this though...I couldn't tell you if they have done it for the past 7 years or the past 27 years. But when we discuss all the impacts to trees and powerlines, those numbers have historically been derived from utility companies and they almost exclusively talk ice in radial ice measurements. When I discuss ice accretion, I'm almost always talking about radial ice, because those numbers are what we used to forecast for impacts to trees and powerlines.

edit: Chris beat me to it...lol

Pretty sure the ASOS METAR reports flat ice....it's not radial ice. So it would be the equivalent of like 0.10-0.15 of radial ice on tree limbs.

The GFS will vomit all over itself the next time it has a low hitting us and the Euro is too far southeast.

Man, Euro is zonked even more with round 2....best looks like from Montreal down through SLK and SYR.

Mesolow can make up for it a bit by shoving the lower DP air from Maine back southwest.....but we haven't developed the mesolow yet far enough north....doesn't really get into the waters E of BOS and gulf of Maine until late afternoon/tonight....that's when we could see a bit of a shove back SW with the below freezing air. The current icing setup has latently warmed to the point where it is now only an elevation event. Most of the below freezing readings remaining are in ORH county now at elevation.

We’ll see you back in on the next threat. It might take you longer to get sucked in, but you’ll be in. No question about it. You can’t leave.

She’s not gonna let us out. Several more systems of getting sucked in because that is the way the pattern is going to be. Almost better to have a pig in AK because at least you don’t get teased as often.

ZR and 29 here but rising steadily.

I’m becoming more bullish on cold drain but I’m going the MPM route of worrying about QPF if you’re rooting for a higher impact ice storm. It looks like a mundane glaze of a quarter inch or less on many of these runs. There’s still some runs that have higher but they are becoming less in the model ensemble.

Yeah I could see us getting dryslotted for like 18 straight hours while freezing drizzle over the interior and that really heavy qpf stays around the south coast of SNE. That’s been a possibility.

The Friday stuff has a PF to Rangeley look when examining the midlevels. It’s trying to collapse SE pretty fast late in the game but I think by the time it does it’s mostly scraps. Maybe a few inches in your ‘hood at the end of it can do it quick enough.

That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway.

I mean, yeah...they get a lot of snow. But those true 12-18 (with higher jacks) deformation/fronto bombs are not that common. Further east definitely gets more of those...esp recently. So I get the excitement of those.

March ‘17 was great there but that was the last one that really deformed up in N VT?....unless I’m not remembering one from last winter or ‘17-‘18. SNE has had a few since then including Jan ‘18, Mar ‘18 and the 4-6 hour snowbomb over E Ma/RI last year. Last year was SWFEs for PF...lots of 6-10 inchers and of course the upslope fluffers. But cmon man, you know as well as I those don’t match those 12-18 (maybe higher) deformation/fronto storms. Ill say that your area has def been screwed for a while versus further east in SNE.

Congrats man. You’ve been waiting for one of these for a while. You have plenty of wiggle room....so unless you get married to 18+, you won’t be disappointed.

Euro looks pretty tucky over interior SNE. Gonna have to brace for some ice I think.

NAM is full of shit for Friday. Sell that and expect tracks near BOS/PSM. This is a powderfreak storm. But the mesos may have a good idea on locking in the cold at the sfc. Still gotta watch for siggy ice.

The cold look at the sfc inland definitely makes sense from a meteorological standpoint. When you have mesolows moving off E MA and into the gulf of Maine, you have no mechanism for warming other than latent heat release...but the position of those mesolows will act to drain lower dews to offset the latent heat...the question is which one is stronger. (Usually the mesolows win when they are in that position)