ORH_wxman

KASH is tough call....could be 1-2" or they could get 4-5"....I'd lean more toward the 1-2 at the moment, but they might be in a spot that gets a good 3-4 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Too marginal at the moment to make a definitive call....I'd prob just call it 1-3" right now and decide tonight ot tomorrow if I was gonna up it to 2-4/3-5 or back down to 1-2/C-2

Yeah I want to see the red height shades extend well into quebec and Nova Scotia to start honking torch here in the winter/spring. That nixes the chance of getting those highs nosing down from there which they will at any excuse.

Not every post referencing the specific terrorist groups was quoted so I can see how it looked a lot more offensive than it was when it was just posted with no context and you didn't read the whole thread of posts. Anyways, off topic for this thread....

Alright ya'll enough of the terrorist jokes....I deleted that crap.

You picked a GFS frame that has 534 thicknesses over SNE.... You wanna avoid picking frames that have low heights over Quebec/Nova Scotia. No bueno for big torch on that.

Yeah I'm selling any snow amounts above 2" south of NH border....save maybe N of rt 2 and west of 190...basically the N ORH county to Franklin county area which I could see doing a little better. It just looks too marginal in the midlevels and this is not a big omega bomb thump....you really want to see a high to the north to really up that ML fronto and have the "running into a brick wall" type look. There will be a little ribbon of probably low end warning just north of the changeover spot...again, congrats dendrite....pretty much that area I could see getting a quick 6-7". If you count the IVT/moosefart upslope, then powderfreak's area will prob get warning snows too.

Yep. I dusted off the congrats dendrite auto-reply for this one. I’m guessing maybe an inch here. Wouldn’t surprise me if we tickled a bit warmer aloft near onset like several previous others where 2-4 turned into a coating.

Yeah. Lol.

You’re the winner. Coldest January on record in AK was 2012. That was the king of all pigs. Top dog.

I was randomly looking at January stats and I believe AK had their 13th coldest January on record back to 1925 when records began. Anyone want to take a stab at which was the coldest without cheating?

We gotta move you out....ORH luck goes into the shitter as soon as you move in. Well, we did have the 17" storm in early December I guess....but after that.

If you define like 2 inches as a thump....then yes. Maybe it is in this winter.

Euro did tick colder/south a bit...not a big change though.

Decided to look up the worst (least snowiest) Jan 1st to Feb 10th periods in ORH on record....first column is the snow they had in that period....the 2nd column is how much they got the rest of the season: 1980: 0.8"....16.2" 1955: 4.0"....10.0" 1944: 4.5"....20.9" 1919: 5.0"....16.6" 1989: 5.0"....17.7" 2020: 5.7"....????? 2007: 5.9"....42.1" 1913: 6.0"....6.7" 1992: 6.4"....19.2" 1937: 6.9"....12.0" 1947: 7.2"....19.1" 1933: 7.6"....56.2" 1962: 7.9"....45.6" 1997: 9.0"....49.3" January 1913 popped up again (we discussed that month during the 70F torch last month)....epic weenie suicides that year hanging themselves by their knickers. That was the worst season for post-Feb 10th snowfall on the list too. You can see that 2020 is pretty bad for Jan 1-Feb 10 snowfall....just outside the top 5.

Yeah that's the only real predictor of the Euro I've ever seen in terms of another model foreshadowing the Euro....and even that relationship is not overly reliable.

Yeah I'm keeping expectations low to the northwest of you here....but I'm gonna track it regardless. I'd feel pretty comfortable for something plowable if we can get 30-40 miles of S trend in the next 36 hours....or the equivalent of...could also get a colder trend without necessarily coming south the whole 30 miles.

Nice little private event there. (or semi-private, lol)....those are always fun.

Ukie trended quite a bit colder than 00z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of MA...maybe N CT.

The winter has been about as good as 1985.

Created a new thread to isolate the Feb 13 talk...inside 3 days now

Figured I'd start this because we're inside of 3 days and we need a place to discuss this storm where it won't get drowned in the negativity of SNE's snow drought. Looks like another storm mainly for NNE, but can't entirely rule out a thump in SNE....I'm betting against that for now given the synoptic setup of no good high to our north, but still a couple days for this to trend. Here's the problem for the colder solution highlight in green on the map in Quebec.....you can see that little wedge of low pressure sneaking in at the perfect time between our two high pressures. If that was just one large bridged high, probably looking at an almost forum-wide warning event...or at least high end advisory to low end warning.

I remember I responded to several of your melts in 2015-2016 with that....lol. Or I trolled you with excessive cold maps after a cutter (or during an SNE special) in January 2014 less than a year after you complained you weren't getting good cold shots. Haha.

Yeah I'll keep an eye on it...but I'm keeping expectations low. If we get a solid 30-40 mile tick south that looks consistent across model guidance, then I'll def start honking more....hard to see that happening though. Still, we do get surprises in the positive direction on these sometimes. Just not this winter...lol. I'd feel a little more optimistic if the synoptics were good...we could really use a high holding firm to our north....even if that retreating high kind of hung on a little more in Maine/Nova Scotia, that might be enough. We've not been able to get the little nuances work for us very often....same longwave setup but with a little kink in the flow might produce a way more wintry result.....but we were due to regression. I feel like we've been overly lucky in the past decade-plus on front enders.

GFS def wasn't bad verbatim....prob advisory level snows at least down to pike and maybe into N CT. I'm just not expecting it to be correct....marginal midlevels ahead of it with low pressure up in Ontario/Quebec instead of a nice high creating resistance. I'm expecting this to tickle northwest until we're mostly out of the game. Euro is already nearly there.

No, not gonna happen today there...just too torched in the lowest 3000 feet.