ORH_wxman

DMI volume is a bit suspect....I'd prob use PIOMAS and then definitely Cryosat2 when that updates more fully later this spring. PIOMAS has volume currently 5th lowest. Still low, but not dead last like DMI. 2017 is pretty far alone in last place at this point.

If it trends flatter it could be a good system....hopefully it does. Today's system was originally a cutter through Ottawa too, so if this one can go flatter, then it might be more prolific with a solid high to the north.

After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa.

Yeah Tips post clarifying what he meant by regression was fine. My comment was in general. There’s some room for CC reference but unpacking how it relates to specific patterns is really a thread in itself as I was explaining above.

There’s room for some CC reference in these threads but it honestly shouldn’t be the main topic....our weather is overwhelmingly dominated by natural variation on the scales we generally discuss in here...which is weeks and months. There’s a reason places still get their coldest months on record even in today’s climate...and it’s not because of a warmer world either. It’s because natural variation can still overwhelm the underlying warming trend. If we want to debate in-depth how much CC contributed to a specific pattern, I think it’s best discussed in a different thread as these types of attribution studies are not very robust yet in the literature. The climate change signals show up on larger scales and larger samples. Polar jet in the means has migrated a half degree latitude north per the literature? Sure, that affects things. But that is a mean and not the same everywhere. In the CONUS it’s been less than that...mostly because we’ve had the trend higher in the N PAC. So therefore downstream there is a reaction to that. Yet, sometimes that trend is bucked...AK had their coldest January on record in 2012 and 13th coldest this year...certainly no thanks to a more northern PJ in the North Pacific. It was in spite of that trend. Attribution studies are changing all the time too...what was once the hot topic a few years prior can become obsolete. A good example is the changing literature on the arctic region. It was once thought that climate change would force more +NAO/+AO patterns. Then when we went through a remarkable period of -NAO/AO in the 2000s and early 2010s, the hot idea in the literature turned to arctic amplification and sea ice loss being the driver of arctic blocking. Now that idea has been challenged again in recent publications. Perhaps in response to more +AO patterns recently. I’m not mentioning this to discredit the science, but merely to point out the attribution studies to particular patterns are not robustly settled in the literature. It’s being debated. So we have to be careful about passing off the speculative as fact. There are great debates to be had on the subject...how does a larger scale trend affect us in the CONUS or New England? But I don’t want to turn the pattern thread into these all the time when people are mostly here to discuss the weather prospects in this month.

All the suppression storms have been out to sea. Lol. There were like two or three that were Nova Scotia storms.

Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point

There is even a case to be made that CC has upped the annual snowfall averages over New England. We can debate at what point that starts turning the other direction, but the empirical evidence is pretty clear that we're currently near a climo peak in the historical record of snowfall whether one uses decadal or rolling 30 year averages. I think personally it's mostly natural variation, but hard to prove attribution. Here's ORH snowfall both 15 year and 30 year rolling averages just to make the point:

Yeah I want to see the red height shades extend well into quebec and Nova Scotia to start honking torch here in the winter/spring. That nixes the chance of getting those highs nosing down from there which they will at any excuse.

Not every post referencing the specific terrorist groups was quoted so I can see how it looked a lot more offensive than it was when it was just posted with no context and you didn't read the whole thread of posts. Anyways, off topic for this thread....

Alright ya'll enough of the terrorist jokes....I deleted that crap.

You picked a GFS frame that has 534 thicknesses over SNE.... You wanna avoid picking frames that have low heights over Quebec/Nova Scotia. No bueno for big torch on that.

Yeah. Lol.

You’re the winner. Coldest January on record in AK was 2012. That was the king of all pigs. Top dog.

I was randomly looking at January stats and I believe AK had their 13th coldest January on record back to 1925 when records began. Anyone want to take a stab at which was the coldest without cheating?

Decided to look up the worst (least snowiest) Jan 1st to Feb 10th periods in ORH on record....first column is the snow they had in that period....the 2nd column is how much they got the rest of the season: 1980: 0.8"....16.2" 1955: 4.0"....10.0" 1944: 4.5"....20.9" 1919: 5.0"....16.6" 1989: 5.0"....17.7" 2020: 5.7"....????? 2007: 5.9"....42.1" 1913: 6.0"....6.7" 1992: 6.4"....19.2" 1937: 6.9"....12.0" 1947: 7.2"....19.1" 1933: 7.6"....56.2" 1962: 7.9"....45.6" 1997: 9.0"....49.3" January 1913 popped up again (we discussed that month during the 70F torch last month)....epic weenie suicides that year hanging themselves by their knickers. That was the worst season for post-Feb 10th snowfall on the list too. You can see that 2020 is pretty bad for Jan 1-Feb 10 snowfall....just outside the top 5.

The winter has been about as good as 1985.

Created a new thread to isolate the Feb 13 talk...inside 3 days now

I remember I responded to several of your melts in 2015-2016 with that....lol. Or I trolled you with excessive cold maps after a cutter (or during an SNE special) in January 2014 less than a year after you complained you weren't getting good cold shots. Haha.

Yeah I'll keep an eye on it...but I'm keeping expectations low. If we get a solid 30-40 mile tick south that looks consistent across model guidance, then I'll def start honking more....hard to see that happening though. Still, we do get surprises in the positive direction on these sometimes. Just not this winter...lol. I'd feel a little more optimistic if the synoptics were good...we could really use a high holding firm to our north....even if that retreating high kind of hung on a little more in Maine/Nova Scotia, that might be enough. We've not been able to get the little nuances work for us very often....same longwave setup but with a little kink in the flow might produce a way more wintry result.....but we were due to regression. I feel like we've been overly lucky in the past decade-plus on front enders.

GFS def wasn't bad verbatim....prob advisory level snows at least down to pike and maybe into N CT. I'm just not expecting it to be correct....marginal midlevels ahead of it with low pressure up in Ontario/Quebec instead of a nice high creating resistance. I'm expecting this to tickle northwest until we're mostly out of the game. Euro is already nearly there.

Dusting off the "congrats dendrite" auto-reply this next 10 days.

Mirror opposite of December, lol....took until Dec 9th to get a positive that month. Maybe we'll get some unexpected cold and a pattern shift the final week to complete the mirror....Dec torched at the end of the month.

lol.....yeah. Several models do show some front end for SNE....GFS shows it too, but I'm selling for now south of Rt 2....at least selling anything more than an inch or two followed by cold rain. This is one of those systems too that could just keep bumping NW in the final 48h. There's nothing really stopping it.

Yeah this is basically a non-event for SNE unless it clearly trends better....I'd prob be a little more enthused on it north of Rt 2 in the interior, but that's about it.