ORH_wxman

If anyone on the marginal line gets lucky with over 3”...it’ll be from ORH to NE MA line. Maybe interior 495 to 128 pike belt could see a couple inches if it thumps for 3 hours but I’m still hedging less overall.

If we had another couple degrees of antecedent airmass this would be a lot more interesting for the pike region. The lack of high is the big thing though. This really isn’t that different aloft for antecedent airmasses than a system like 2/6/14. But that had a high in a good spot. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0205.php#picture

All the suppression storms have been out to sea. Lol. There were like two or three that were Nova Scotia storms.

Yeah it’s pretty warm at the sfc..esp near coast. It’ll need to rip for a couple hours to get an inch or more. Definitely possible but I wouldn’t feel great about it.

Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point

There is even a case to be made that CC has upped the annual snowfall averages over New England. We can debate at what point that starts turning the other direction, but the empirical evidence is pretty clear that we're currently near a climo peak in the historical record of snowfall whether one uses decadal or rolling 30 year averages. I think personally it's mostly natural variation, but hard to prove attribution. Here's ORH snowfall both 15 year and 30 year rolling averages just to make the point:

Yeah assuming it's not just model noise. That's the thing with microscopic shifts....they may not mean anything since they are well within the margin of error for the model output. But if we knew that 5 miles was real, then yeah....it would help those in N MA and near NH border somewhat I would think.

It actually did look slightly colder....if you maybe held a microscope to it. We're talking like 5 miles south with the 0C lines at 850 and 925.

KASH is tough call....could be 1-2" or they could get 4-5"....I'd lean more toward the 1-2 at the moment, but they might be in a spot that gets a good 3-4 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Too marginal at the moment to make a definitive call....I'd prob just call it 1-3" right now and decide tonight ot tomorrow if I was gonna up it to 2-4/3-5 or back down to 1-2/C-2

Yeah I want to see the red height shades extend well into quebec and Nova Scotia to start honking torch here in the winter/spring. That nixes the chance of getting those highs nosing down from there which they will at any excuse.

Not every post referencing the specific terrorist groups was quoted so I can see how it looked a lot more offensive than it was when it was just posted with no context and you didn't read the whole thread of posts. Anyways, off topic for this thread....

Alright ya'll enough of the terrorist jokes....I deleted that crap.

You picked a GFS frame that has 534 thicknesses over SNE.... You wanna avoid picking frames that have low heights over Quebec/Nova Scotia. No bueno for big torch on that.

Yeah I'm selling any snow amounts above 2" south of NH border....save maybe N of rt 2 and west of 190...basically the N ORH county to Franklin county area which I could see doing a little better. It just looks too marginal in the midlevels and this is not a big omega bomb thump....you really want to see a high to the north to really up that ML fronto and have the "running into a brick wall" type look. There will be a little ribbon of probably low end warning just north of the changeover spot...again, congrats dendrite....pretty much that area I could see getting a quick 6-7". If you count the IVT/moosefart upslope, then powderfreak's area will prob get warning snows too.

Yep. I dusted off the congrats dendrite auto-reply for this one. I’m guessing maybe an inch here. Wouldn’t surprise me if we tickled a bit warmer aloft near onset like several previous others where 2-4 turned into a coating.

Yeah. Lol.

You’re the winner. Coldest January on record in AK was 2012. That was the king of all pigs. Top dog.

I was randomly looking at January stats and I believe AK had their 13th coldest January on record back to 1925 when records began. Anyone want to take a stab at which was the coldest without cheating?

We gotta move you out....ORH luck goes into the shitter as soon as you move in. Well, we did have the 17" storm in early December I guess....but after that.

If you define like 2 inches as a thump....then yes. Maybe it is in this winter.

Euro did tick colder/south a bit...not a big change though.

Decided to look up the worst (least snowiest) Jan 1st to Feb 10th periods in ORH on record....first column is the snow they had in that period....the 2nd column is how much they got the rest of the season: 1980: 0.8"....16.2" 1955: 4.0"....10.0" 1944: 4.5"....20.9" 1919: 5.0"....16.6" 1989: 5.0"....17.7" 2020: 5.7"....????? 2007: 5.9"....42.1" 1913: 6.0"....6.7" 1992: 6.4"....19.2" 1937: 6.9"....12.0" 1947: 7.2"....19.1" 1933: 7.6"....56.2" 1962: 7.9"....45.6" 1997: 9.0"....49.3" January 1913 popped up again (we discussed that month during the 70F torch last month)....epic weenie suicides that year hanging themselves by their knickers. That was the worst season for post-Feb 10th snowfall on the list too. You can see that 2020 is pretty bad for Jan 1-Feb 10 snowfall....just outside the top 5.

Yeah that's the only real predictor of the Euro I've ever seen in terms of another model foreshadowing the Euro....and even that relationship is not overly reliable.

Yeah I'm keeping expectations low to the northwest of you here....but I'm gonna track it regardless. I'd feel pretty comfortable for something plowable if we can get 30-40 miles of S trend in the next 36 hours....or the equivalent of...could also get a colder trend without necessarily coming south the whole 30 miles.

Nice little private event there. (or semi-private, lol)....those are always fun.