ORH_wxman

12z Euro is interesting too at D6....we'll see if it takes it all the way this run...but there's some synoptic features that are lining up here

Ukie actually looks pretty threatening at D6....and yes, before the woe-is-me and heat mongers try and spin this post....it's still unlikely to happen. But it is occuring in that 3/6-3/7 window which might be able to support something.

6.8" in 2 hours of lake effect isn't that notable...it's heavy, but pretty routine in LES bands.

I think there is just too much hyperbole and people trying to force other posters into a certain "stance".....The large scale pattern isn't good for snow, but sometimes you get "less bad" periods within a crappy pattern that can support snowfall. It's why even in our crappiest stretches, we still usually pull off an event or two. I'd rather try and point that out than keep posting "woe is me" on the winter....yeah, I get it for snow enthusiasts....an epically terrible stretch since December, but I don't know how many times it can be said before it becomes monotonously repetitive. Do I expect snow on 3/7 or 3/11? No I don't....but I also wouldn't be shocked if we got some in those windows. So I'm just here to communicate that so people aren't saying "I thought it was nothing but spring in the forecast!!!1!!1!" if a threat does pop up.

There have not been two camps at all...there have been like 5....some people are calling for no more accumulating snow and a repeat of March 2012....some are calling for continued somewhat crappy pattern but are not ruling out accumulating snow yet in a few pockets of more favorability....some have called for no relaxation at all in the AO and then got angry at posters who said it would fall.....some have called for a huge flip to colder and snowier....

Flow is fast too during that little spike in ridging....so it would be hard to amplify something. The 3/10 window actually might be a bit easier....Euro is slightly too far north with the setup but the GEFS are way south....so a 70/30 compromise toward EPS might work actually. But at that point we're talking over 10 days out too...so who knows what it will look like.

We get a decent rockies ridge spike around 3/6-3/7....so that would be when we can sneak a coastal in....if that mini-EPO dump around 3/10 gets far enough south, then there would be another window for an overrunning or SWFE around 3/11ish. It's all occurring in a fairly ugly hemispheric pattern, so gotta keep it relative....but if we're trying to identify any windows where snow could happen, I'd pick those two.

Hadley cell will getcha every time.

Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently.

Emotions before science...

If we can warm another 4F in the next few years then we could be the new Philly. I'm a little skeptical of that rate of warming.

44/39....lol with 1/4 mile. At least give me a 3F spread.

That is excellent by Charlie. Anyone who looks at a lot of climate data would notice how bad BOS is sticking out the past 18 months.

The big question is whether Tolland Weenies are still in contention by Memorial Day.

He bought ginxy’s camera off eBay.

This would have been the type of setup where Kevin talks about ULL snow squalls and 1-2 inches if he was still in winter wishcasting mode.

And BOS should be cooler than you on this SW wind since it has to go over Dorchester Bay and the harbor...and for you it doesn't. Winthrop and the wharf are putting up 59s. Yep...more faux records are going to keep going down too and it's just being ignored....lol. Any record that is not broken by more than 3F will have to be assumed to be fake, which is unacceptable in a field that should be pretty objective and scientific on the data.

More like between 2-3F too warm at the Logan ASOS based off of surrounding mesonets. Looks like it's actually degraded a bit further over the 6 months or so after being pretty stable from mid 2018 to mid 2019 after that first huge step-jump in early 2018. So it's closer to 3F these days. .

Winter saved for Scooter? ML magic

Ok, this is a bit different than your claim last week when you were going nuts on anyone who mentioned how the AO would be relaxing....which it clearly is. Does it necessarily mean snow? Of course not and we said that at the time...but it's less hostile than it was. It is still a somewhat ugly pattern, but it wouldn't surprise me if we get a snow event in the next 2 weeks.

AO is actually already crashing...and will be down 4-5 SD (!!!) from what it was a couple days ago soon....you actually said it wouldn't do that and couldn't see how it would crash down. Now, it's still not a good pattern, but it definitely is changing.

I would grade it worse if nothing fell at all and then we got December’s snow in March. Personal preference of course but give me the holiday snow and snow cover any day. We’ll see how this one finishes. Honestly, the heart of this winter has been pretty similar to ‘96-‘97 around ORH. Maybe save the exceptional 2 day torch in January. But very little snow like that year after the big December. The winter finished strong though in March and of course the epic all-timer on 3/31-4/1...so it was a bookend winter with garbage in between. If we have a good finish to this one then it would change the feel of it...kind of like that winter which I look back at as a lot better than it really should be looked at.

This winter is definitely not as bad as 11-12 or 01-02 at least in interior MA. We never had a stretch like the first half of December those winters. The heart of winter has been about as bad as it gets...but at least we had snow on the ground virtually the entire month of December (save like 4 days) and several decent events (including a 17 incher). So there’s no way I could rate this winter worse than those. If I only graded it based on january and February then I might. But obviously those aren’t the only months that make up the winter.

Prob gonna be great there after Thursday’s storm. Looks like some upslope behind it for several days. Hoping the primary trends a little snowier up north...gonna try and sneak a day in skiing playing hooky from work in maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

Ukie looks like it transfers to coastal faster than other guidance.