ORH_wxman

Awesome event PF. Congrats on the overperformer. Always fun when your own area overperforms everyone.

. To be fair, JB is on board with every storm. It’s like thinking about canceling a storm in a normal winter because Kevin said it was coming. Its background noise

Given the time frame, not getting sucked in yet...but if we’re still looking favorable by tomorrow night or Monday morning then I think it becomes real...that would get us into that 100 hour lead time. At least this has synoptic support in the pattern. It’s transient but things try and line up pretty nicely.

It’s only the GFS that isn’t looking good out of the real models.

EPS are less enthused on that one...the GEFS and GEPS like it a lot more...we'll see if it trends colder...still over 10 days out. That one would not be a coastal type setup like 3/6-7....it would be more of an overrunning look as presently modeled.

Maybe.....

Verbatim, Euro misses this run, but synoptically there is actually a reason to keep an eye on this one.

Here's what I'm talking about at day 6.....you can see a well-placed ridge out west....then we have a good 50/50 low...and finally two shortwaves diving into the mean trough over the east.

12z Euro is interesting too at D6....we'll see if it takes it all the way this run...but there's some synoptic features that are lining up here

Ukie actually looks pretty threatening at D6....and yes, before the woe-is-me and heat mongers try and spin this post....it's still unlikely to happen. But it is occuring in that 3/6-3/7 window which might be able to support something.

6.8" in 2 hours of lake effect isn't that notable...it's heavy, but pretty routine in LES bands.

I think there is just too much hyperbole and people trying to force other posters into a certain "stance".....The large scale pattern isn't good for snow, but sometimes you get "less bad" periods within a crappy pattern that can support snowfall. It's why even in our crappiest stretches, we still usually pull off an event or two. I'd rather try and point that out than keep posting "woe is me" on the winter....yeah, I get it for snow enthusiasts....an epically terrible stretch since December, but I don't know how many times it can be said before it becomes monotonously repetitive. Do I expect snow on 3/7 or 3/11? No I don't....but I also wouldn't be shocked if we got some in those windows. So I'm just here to communicate that so people aren't saying "I thought it was nothing but spring in the forecast!!!1!!1!" if a threat does pop up.

There have not been two camps at all...there have been like 5....some people are calling for no more accumulating snow and a repeat of March 2012....some are calling for continued somewhat crappy pattern but are not ruling out accumulating snow yet in a few pockets of more favorability....some have called for no relaxation at all in the AO and then got angry at posters who said it would fall.....some have called for a huge flip to colder and snowier....

Flow is fast too during that little spike in ridging....so it would be hard to amplify something. The 3/10 window actually might be a bit easier....Euro is slightly too far north with the setup but the GEFS are way south....so a 70/30 compromise toward EPS might work actually. But at that point we're talking over 10 days out too...so who knows what it will look like.

We get a decent rockies ridge spike around 3/6-3/7....so that would be when we can sneak a coastal in....if that mini-EPO dump around 3/10 gets far enough south, then there would be another window for an overrunning or SWFE around 3/11ish. It's all occurring in a fairly ugly hemispheric pattern, so gotta keep it relative....but if we're trying to identify any windows where snow could happen, I'd pick those two.

Hadley cell will getcha every time.

Here may be a couple windows for accumulating snow...first is like 3/6-3/8 and then if that high from central Canada presses down could be another from like 3/10-3/12. They aren’t great setups as it looks now but better than anything else recently.

Emotions before science...

If we can warm another 4F in the next few years then we could be the new Philly. I'm a little skeptical of that rate of warming.

44/39....lol with 1/4 mile. At least give me a 3F spread.

That is excellent by Charlie. Anyone who looks at a lot of climate data would notice how bad BOS is sticking out the past 18 months.

The big question is whether Tolland Weenies are still in contention by Memorial Day.

He bought ginxy’s camera off eBay.

This would have been the type of setup where Kevin talks about ULL snow squalls and 1-2 inches if he was still in winter wishcasting mode.

And BOS should be cooler than you on this SW wind since it has to go over Dorchester Bay and the harbor...and for you it doesn't. Winthrop and the wharf are putting up 59s. Yep...more faux records are going to keep going down too and it's just being ignored....lol. Any record that is not broken by more than 3F will have to be assumed to be fake, which is unacceptable in a field that should be pretty objective and scientific on the data.