ORH_wxman

Feb is done in 10 days...prob nothing unless that d8 system actually delivers which is going to be tough since it is right as the pattern changes. Canada gets loaded with some cold so it does set the stage for something fun in March perhaps.

I’m tempted to take a day off work in a couple weeks and do a day trip to SR. Esp if they add on more snow between now and then which looks likely. This is reminding me a little of 96-97...not much snow down here but when we went up to SR it was massive pack. Trending that way again. Maybe SNE gets the 1997 finale again.

Lol about to get a rude awakening unfortunately. I’d rather have 40F if it’s not gonna now but we’re going 1980s this week...frigid incoming the next few days. At least it moderates nicely this weekend.

Yeah there’s always a noticeable difference between those two spots. Jordan and Oz always seem to have more then White Cap and Locke/Barker.

Can’t buy a baroclinic zone and big time fronto in any of these storms. Closest we got was that one a few weeks ago that got powderfreak and upstate NY. Everything else has been diffuse crapola. Might change though. It does have the look of better baroclinciity going forward and the mean trough being much further east...can finally tap into the Atlantic moisture instead of lows going through Lake Huron. At least theoretically. Next week could def still go through Lake Huron.

Yeah it’s all PAC driven. Atlantic is going to offer nada in this. Hope we 1993 (also had a putrid Atlantic)

EPS still shows the marginal threat next week even though I’m fairly pessimistic on this one.

Yeah I’m not expecting anything from those systems. But if the second one improves a little bit in the next 3 days or so then it may be worth tracking.

The ensemble mean track would actually be pretty nice for interior SNE. Might be some taint but def a good bit of wintry precip. It’s subtle...but definitely enough better than other tracks to do well. The mean track this winter has been some low up in Toronto with a triple point secondary over or just east of SNE. This would actually be a redeveloped low coming out over the midatlantic and south of SNE. A little earlier than the typical garbage storm this winter. But there’s plenty of time to get that primary into tornto and Ottawa.

Nada the next 5-6 days. Maybe a marginal threat around D6 and another one around D8-9.

Yeah Logan was surrounded by 26-30” obs in 2005. I don’t believe their 22”+ total. Anyways, maybe we can sneak that 2/27 storm in but that is right as the pattern gets better, so I’d probably favor early March more than the last couple days of February. But we’ll see...maybe a marginal one breaks right for us finally.

Too early to start the 2/27 storm thread?

Something in the 23-24” range would make more sense to me than almost 28 inches. It was obviously a prolific storm either way, but it probably should not be the record.

I’ll have to go back and look at the METARS....but BOS had a 19” depth after the storm when they had 3” prior to the storm. That’s not really passing the sniff test for a synoptic storm of 27.6”. It might for LES. But BOS had 15 to 1 ratio that storm...which is pretty fluffy by BOS standards but nowhere near the 30 to 1 air fluff that could plausibly compact that much.

I thought they measured too often in PDII. It should have been nixed. Their max depth was like 21” right? And they had a 3” depth prior to the storm.

Wiz gone wild. At some point you can’t just ignore model guidance in the skilled timeframes just because you got burned previously. This big change in the arctic is taking place inside of 8 or 9 days. It’s not like it’s a 360 hour pipe dream. Again, doesn’t have to mean we forecast big cold and snow. But it’s quite a bit less hostile to storms in the east than the current regime.

The AO actually relaxes quite a bit in the next 7-10 days. It doesn’t go negative but is descends toward neutral. That is a pretty big change from near-record positive values. So I don’t really see the parallel to the most recent pattern. Theres a lot of spread in the 12-15 day period so it could go back up to big positive values for March...but it might not either. I said before that it looks like a muddled signal and I don’t see anything in the past 6 hours that has changed my mind. Also, a positive AO in and of itself doesn’t really mean little or no snow here anyway. Some of our snowiest winters on record had positive AOs. All things equal, we’d rather have it negative for snow, but it’s not a large correlation like it is in the midatlantic region.

What does that have to do with whether it snows in March? You sound like a gambler who bets everything on red because the roulette wheel came up red 8 times in a row.

The wavelengths shorten as we go into spring. Not lengthen. That’s why we start to lose the correlation with the AO and NAO.

Seems like wiz lost the point. He started talking about March making up for the entire season of snowfall deficit when the discussion was really about any decent storm at all. Yeah, it’s pretty unlikely we get enough snow in late February and March to get back to average snowfall in most areas of SNE. But it’s not unlikely that we get another good event...say, high end advisory or better.

And two of them were “the winter” and “the vibe of the season”. Lol. That’s persistence. Anyways, I’m not gonna keep harping on the semantics here. In my view, March is a muddled signal at the moment...it could end up warm and snowless but I wouldn’t make that call right now.

You just used the winter to date to justify your call. That means you are using persistence as a key part of your March forecast.

Ok you think that it will be a warm and snowless March. That’s fine you think that’s. That doesn’t mean I should be thinking the same thing or acting “surprised” that I don’t and that I “should know better”. I don’t see much that supports a torchy/snowless March. It could definitely happen...I’m not saying it won’t....but there’s nothing at the moment that screams torch and snowless March. Nothing screams cold and snowy either...it’s kind of a muddled signal. Persistence hasn’t worked in the past on these....so there’s no reason for me to use persistence this time. For every example of a garbage March that followed a garbage rest of the winter, I can point to one that went against the seasonal grain. That, by definition, means that’s persistence doesn’t have any skill.

You honestly have no idea about if it’s going to snow or not in March or even late this month. You think you do, but you don’t. The most skillful long range met wouldn’t be able to predict that.

I jinxed them in the last one by starting the thread. At least once you got north of about ASH.