ORH_wxman

Tip already did that....he talks about warm cars starting around 2/10.

Lets see if we can get a big one 4 years in a row in March....we're testing our luck. I think ORH has only ever had 4 above average snowfall Marches in a row one time in their record (1958-1961)..

March 2001 repeat?

They prob had a few inches, but it was mostly the ice last week that likely cancelled their schools.

DMI volume is a bit suspect....I'd prob use PIOMAS and then definitely Cryosat2 when that updates more fully later this spring. PIOMAS has volume currently 5th lowest. Still low, but not dead last like DMI. 2017 is pretty far alone in last place at this point.

If it trends flatter it could be a good system....hopefully it does. Today's system was originally a cutter through Ottawa too, so if this one can go flatter, then it might be more prolific with a solid high to the north.

After another seemingly ugly system around 2/18. Hopefully that one trends flatter....go figure, we actually have a decent high in front of that one but then it wants to slice up through Ottawa.

Had about 1.3 before the flip. Winter hill almost 2”.

Looks like it is near the MA/CT border in Litchfield county per ALB radar

Snowing pretty good here. Sticking to pavement now. Guessing I have about 90 more minutes based on the progression of sleet line. Might be able to pull off a couple inches if we can get some heavier stuff to consistently move over.

It makes me a little grumpy though knowing that this could’ve been legit widespread warning with a high (ala 2/6/14) But beggars can’t be choosers in this winter. I’ll gladly take 2 or 3 inches from this one if we can get it. Still a bit skeptical here but I’d feel better than earlier if I was in rt 2 corridor to NH border region.

18z euro tickled slightly colder again. N of pike might be able to grab a couple inches.

Yeah Tips post clarifying what he meant by regression was fine. My comment was in general. There’s some room for CC reference but unpacking how it relates to specific patterns is really a thread in itself as I was explaining above.

There’s room for some CC reference in these threads but it honestly shouldn’t be the main topic....our weather is overwhelmingly dominated by natural variation on the scales we generally discuss in here...which is weeks and months. There’s a reason places still get their coldest months on record even in today’s climate...and it’s not because of a warmer world either. It’s because natural variation can still overwhelm the underlying warming trend. If we want to debate in-depth how much CC contributed to a specific pattern, I think it’s best discussed in a different thread as these types of attribution studies are not very robust yet in the literature. The climate change signals show up on larger scales and larger samples. Polar jet in the means has migrated a half degree latitude north per the literature? Sure, that affects things. But that is a mean and not the same everywhere. In the CONUS it’s been less than that...mostly because we’ve had the trend higher in the N PAC. So therefore downstream there is a reaction to that. Yet, sometimes that trend is bucked...AK had their coldest January on record in 2012 and 13th coldest this year...certainly no thanks to a more northern PJ in the North Pacific. It was in spite of that trend. Attribution studies are changing all the time too...what was once the hot topic a few years prior can become obsolete. A good example is the changing literature on the arctic region. It was once thought that climate change would force more +NAO/+AO patterns. Then when we went through a remarkable period of -NAO/AO in the 2000s and early 2010s, the hot idea in the literature turned to arctic amplification and sea ice loss being the driver of arctic blocking. Now that idea has been challenged again in recent publications. Perhaps in response to more +AO patterns recently. I’m not mentioning this to discredit the science, but merely to point out the attribution studies to particular patterns are not robustly settled in the literature. It’s being debated. So we have to be careful about passing off the speculative as fact. There are great debates to be had on the subject...how does a larger scale trend affect us in the CONUS or New England? But I don’t want to turn the pattern thread into these all the time when people are mostly here to discuss the weather prospects in this month.

Euro looked a fraction colder again. Still fairly pessimistic here but it’s looking better for advisory snows up near the northern MA border.

Yeah I could envision the mix line holding almost stationary for an hour or two as the heavy lift moves in..:those who are north of that line with the heavy lift will get lucky while those just south will be getting a mixed crapola.

Rgem was trying to advertise advisory snows in the pike region too. Solid 3-4”. Im selling on those totals.

If anyone on the marginal line gets lucky with over 3”...it’ll be from ORH to NE MA line. Maybe interior 495 to 128 pike belt could see a couple inches if it thumps for 3 hours but I’m still hedging less overall.

If we had another couple degrees of antecedent airmass this would be a lot more interesting for the pike region. The lack of high is the big thing though. This really isn’t that different aloft for antecedent airmasses than a system like 2/6/14. But that had a high in a good spot. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2014/us0205.php#picture

All the suppression storms have been out to sea. Lol. There were like two or three that were Nova Scotia storms.

Yeah it’s pretty warm at the sfc..esp near coast. It’ll need to rip for a couple hours to get an inch or more. Definitely possible but I wouldn’t feel great about it.

Agreed. The year to year or even decade to decade natural variation in snowfall will drown out the CC signal on those shorter timescales. Snowfall already has a massive standard deviation from year to year. We’re definitely in line for some regression at some point

There is even a case to be made that CC has upped the annual snowfall averages over New England. We can debate at what point that starts turning the other direction, but the empirical evidence is pretty clear that we're currently near a climo peak in the historical record of snowfall whether one uses decadal or rolling 30 year averages. I think personally it's mostly natural variation, but hard to prove attribution. Here's ORH snowfall both 15 year and 30 year rolling averages just to make the point:

Yeah assuming it's not just model noise. That's the thing with microscopic shifts....they may not mean anything since they are well within the margin of error for the model output. But if we knew that 5 miles was real, then yeah....it would help those in N MA and near NH border somewhat I would think.

It actually did look slightly colder....if you maybe held a microscope to it. We're talking like 5 miles south with the 0C lines at 850 and 925.