ORH_wxman

I’ve always said a winter with a pig in the means is usually a ratter. I never said no chance for snow though. There’s a difference. We get snowstorms in garbage winters too...it’s just harder to get them. If the EPS is right, we’d have to get very lucky though in the next 2 weeks to get something. It’s possible they aren’t right though....esp in the longer range where ensembles have had trouble all winter.

Lol. Yeah should’ve found an ugly one. Despite what kevin says, I’m not tossing in the towel on good snowfalls from here on out. Still 6 weeks left on the realistic climo calendar.

Big time. Oink oink. Black hole up in the arctic. No above average heights there this winter like has been so common recently. This is definitely an early 1990s look.

Looks like Ukie is the first model to cave to the euro. Euro gonna nail that system being the outlier this time.

GGEM is squashed. Gotta wonder if euro caves on the cutter idea.

KDZJ getting 1/2 Mile SN at 26F. We need to move to Georgia.

James gone wild....

Watch us get skunked in February and then pull a two footer in March. Maybe Jerry’s 1960 finish will happen.

Meh. I get not tracking a D5/6 system. But let’s be honest, if the euro showed a hit and all other guidance was a cutter, there’s no way anyone would believe it either.

This will be the time the Euro suite nails it to a T being an outlier.

Euro and EPS hate 2/13 but Ukie/GFS/GGEM all have a threat there.

I’d like to see some agreement too. EPS in the 11-15 flipped to more hostile the past two runs but the GEFS and GEPS look quite a bit different. That tells me there are some pretty big uncertainties. I understand the sentiment that this winter won’t produce much considering what’s happened the past 7-8 weeks and the look going forward isn’t coming up triple 7s....but I’m not gonna pretend that we know that we’re not going to get a good storm either. Pretty silly actually on 2/7. For all we know, the landscape could totally change by Presidents’ Day.

EPS def got worse today in the 11-15. But it’s also true they’ve been pretty bad in that timeframe this season. So we’ll take it a day at a time and see what it looks like once we get inside d10.

I didn’t forecast a great period. I’m just not making stupid posts about snow being done for the season.

Nobody is buying the new Kevin act. Lol. He’s just saying it’s over so he won’t become emotionally invested too early like usual locking in some tedious setup at t days out. I actually applaud the tactic. It will make him wait until inside of about 3 days until he is “back on board”.

Who's all-in with me on the D6 ukie? A nice 2007-2008 style warning SWFE.

Yeah left a bad taste in what was otherwise a pretty nice winter. We also whiffed an opportunity on St PAtty's day that year....looked really goo like 3-4 days out and then got squashed...I think DC and BWI got snow out of it.

There were a couple misses actually....one biggie hit CNE/NNE and narrowly missed us...I think that was on 3/12-13/14 and then there was another that destroyed the cape on 3/26/14....I think the outer cape had a legit blizzard with snow up to a foot and we got absolutely nothing. There was a sharp cutoff too...not sure there was anything at all west of the canal.

Mar '14 was horrible....had like 4 inches of snow the whole month but it was like -6F or -7F....lol. I think it was the coldest March since 1960.

I'd rate '15-'16 worse here too over interior MA...but once you were near the coast and then down in CT, it was much better than this year...southern CT got a decent hit from the Jan '16 blizzard....and those coastal areas did not really cash in on the Dec 1-3, 2019 storm earlier this winter.

We’ll see you back in on the next threat. It might take you longer to get sucked in, but you’ll be in. No question about it. You can’t leave.

She’s not gonna let us out. Several more systems of getting sucked in because that is the way the pattern is going to be. Almost better to have a pig in AK because at least you don’t get teased as often.

Wondering of those other models had the right idea before they caved....guess there could still be a spike this afternoon, but starting to doubt it

Yes that is the lowest record high of any date for BOS.