ORH_wxman

18z euro was quite a bit flatter with Thursday’s system. Enough to be interesting for SNE and not just NNE. I ain’t biting yet but today has definitely seen a trend flatter.

If things break right, ski country could do really well over the next 10-12 days. There’s actually several little threats in there and none of them look to be super cutterish.

Happy hour GFS still trying to give pretty good snows to pike region.

I had a pack like that for about 10-12 days in January. It didn’t feel much better to me. Super long stretches of no major storm threats getting inside of 4 days is really the defining theme to me the past 7 weeks. I probably would have been grumpier if it was temps closer to normal or colder than normal and bare ground. But having constant highs in the upper 30s to low 40s didn’t have me super excited that there was a 2 inch half-thawed glacier on the ground. Im definitely a snow pack guy too...but I also prefer some legit storms to track. It’s been really boring. Seems like each event we’re tracking pennies and the occasional nickel and usually slop/transition events...outside of VT of course where they got that solid CCB a few days ago. Either way, hopefully there’s something to track that gives a solid chance for warning snows to a good chunk of the forum.

I dunno...you literally posted a 75 hour NAM map that shows zero precip falling in SNE and no commentary.

Euro OP was pretty fun for NNE in clown range. Two juicy events. Just cold enough for snow there and just warm enough for rain in SNE. Though there could be icing in interior SNE. Kind of like last event.

Ukie is actually not bad N of pike for Thursday. Gets advisory snows it looks like (disclaimer: didn’t look at sfc temps....only 850 and 925) Still kind of an ugly system but I’m just the messenger.

Would be nice to even get 2-4” of white on the ground because that cold shot behind it is legit. Prob below zero lows for a chunk of SNE. Nothing worse than frigid cold with bare ground. Im still pretty skeptical on this event because that little low up in Canada sneaks in between our two highs. It’s literally the worst possible timing for it. Otherwise we’d prob be talking low end warning...that high doesn’t just hold the cold in, it would increase frontogenetic forcing and wring out more QPF. But beggars can’t be choosers...

Maybe a coating to an inch of you stave off the low level warmth enough.

Nah. I said there’s still likely snow chances in the future. You on the other hand.... Delete button on any future snowstorm threads this winter.

Yes. Any of his posts in snowstorm threads from here on out will be deleted.

Yeah...this part definitely always makes me laugh every year when folks claim they are looking forward to spring. Maybe they mean Mother’s Day and beyond, lol.

Agree it’s def been better than those two. Largely on the back of December. I had snow cover for 27 out of 31 days in December....plus over 2 feet of cumulative snow that month including a top 5 December storm historically.Temps near normal. Felt like winter and during the festive time of year. (And I get that the coast didn’t have it that great either...so their perception will be a little different) We never had a stretch like that in ‘01-‘02 or ‘11-‘12.....but this past 7 weeks has been about as bad as it gets. January was really boring with very few storms and mild temps and February has been a near miss on 2/1 and a slop storm a couple days ago...with a lousy pattern progged the next two weeks. Hopefully something breaks right to change the tenure of the season. Would be nice to track a higher end threat rather than disorganized SWFEs with dryslots covering 75% of the forum. We can’t even do those right this year.

Congrats. Looks like an NNE week coming up. Hoping for a late month or March bomb here.

Nothing interesting to track. Maybe the day 9-10 euro will produce something. Too bad the d4-5 threat literally has the worst possibly placed low sandwiched between two highs up north because that one could’ve been a legit juiced SWfE. Only in this winter a positively tilted trough produces that.

00z NAM looks cold enough in his hood for snow. Colder than previous runs. Still would prob be a wet snow that isn’t very efficient at accumulating though.

Some of that is probably tied into that d5 threat. But yeah, it’s not a 100% disaster like a few other years but it’s pretty ugly. There’s probably some pretty big variance.

I’ve always said a winter with a pig in the means is usually a ratter. I never said no chance for snow though. There’s a difference. We get snowstorms in garbage winters too...it’s just harder to get them. If the EPS is right, we’d have to get very lucky though in the next 2 weeks to get something. It’s possible they aren’t right though....esp in the longer range where ensembles have had trouble all winter.

Lol. Yeah should’ve found an ugly one. Despite what kevin says, I’m not tossing in the towel on good snowfalls from here on out. Still 6 weeks left on the realistic climo calendar.

Big time. Oink oink. Black hole up in the arctic. No above average heights there this winter like has been so common recently. This is definitely an early 1990s look.

Looks like Ukie is the first model to cave to the euro. Euro gonna nail that system being the outlier this time.

GGEM is squashed. Gotta wonder if euro caves on the cutter idea.

KDZJ getting 1/2 Mile SN at 26F. We need to move to Georgia.

James gone wild....