ORH_wxman

Nobody is buying the new Kevin act. Lol. He’s just saying it’s over so he won’t become emotionally invested too early like usual locking in some tedious setup at t days out. I actually applaud the tactic. It will make him wait until inside of about 3 days until he is “back on board”.

No it will be colder. Temps are falling pretty quick not too far west after a brief spike.

Had a huge temp spike from 34F to 48F here that took about 10 minutes and that also only lasted literally like 3-5 minutes....already dumping back to 45F. Really gusty out of the S briefly and now WSW.

Yep....I get them year-round at my feeders.

Nice temp gradient....not quite the 30F gradient from Dec '08, but still a good 20F over about 10 miles in S ORH county to NE CT.

KSFZ at 967mb....lowest I have seen so far. Doesn't really come close to anything around it though (PVD is 973.4 and OWD is 972.0)....so might have to be tossed.

Lower than ORH (972.4), yet ORH is an 020 wind direction at 9 knots....this low is pretty contorted because of the CAD.

IJD rocketed up to 55F with S wind. Tolland probably torching now or soon.

Who's all-in with me on the D6 ukie? A nice 2007-2008 style warning SWFE.

Yeah BTV is 24F now. Looks like the lower level cold just needs to filter into the mountains and it will go powder pretty quick.

Let's see if we can craft something up for you.....

Yeah left a bad taste in what was otherwise a pretty nice winter. We also whiffed an opportunity on St PAtty's day that year....looked really goo like 3-4 days out and then got squashed...I think DC and BWI got snow out of it.

There were a couple misses actually....one biggie hit CNE/NNE and narrowly missed us...I think that was on 3/12-13/14 and then there was another that destroyed the cape on 3/26/14....I think the outer cape had a legit blizzard with snow up to a foot and we got absolutely nothing. There was a sharp cutoff too...not sure there was anything at all west of the canal.

Low is already elongated from like ABE over to LI sound and near the Cape. Can see it pretty clearly on the sfc plot with the winds....and the pressure at ABE is like 977...that's the lowest I can find at quick glance

Mar '14 was horrible....had like 4 inches of snow the whole month but it was like -6F or -7F....lol. I think it was the coldest March since 1960.

One of the few times I wished I was back in Ithaca, NY for a storm vs interior MA

I'd rate '15-'16 worse here too over interior MA...but once you were near the coast and then down in CT, it was much better than this year...southern CT got a decent hit from the Jan '16 blizzard....and those coastal areas did not really cash in on the Dec 1-3, 2019 storm earlier this winter.

Iced up here. Pretty nasty out. Temps slowly rising again though.

ORH has ticked back to 31F. ASH down to 30F.

Looks like some cold drain has commenced in NE MA and S NH. ASH and MHT have dropped the past hour and the mesonets are dropping pretty quickly around there too. We’ll have to see how much push that has.

I think radial is even lower than that...its close to 0.4 ratio to flat ice. It does vary a little bit depending on conditions, but if you take the average accretion efficiency of the two then you get around a 0.4 ratio of radial to flat. But either way...I agree 0.75 flat would be a good number because that is when damage starts to accelerate.

0.75 would be a good number too since that would be like a third of an inch of radial ice. You start getting the power issues around that mark...I've always noticed around 1/3 to 3/8 when the damae starts accelerating....which made me think that 1/2 radial was too steep a criteria for ice storm warning. .

This matches what my memory is from 2008....I was almost certain they were forecasting and reporting in radial ice back then, but I wasn't 100% sure since I didn't look at the NWS forecast in great detail....I was mostly on here going back and forth with Ekster on how many people would be without power the next day.

I know old school for everyone used to be radial ice. Current NWS forecasts for elevated horizontal ice....which is flat ice. I'm not sure how long they have done this though...I couldn't tell you if they have done it for the past 7 years or the past 27 years. But when we discuss all the impacts to trees and powerlines, those numbers have historically been derived from utility companies and they almost exclusively talk ice in radial ice measurements. When I discuss ice accretion, I'm almost always talking about radial ice, because those numbers are what we used to forecast for impacts to trees and powerlines.

edit: Chris beat me to it...lol