ORH_wxman

Correct. On GFS at least. The timing may not be the same on all guidance though.

And I’m not really convinced the interior gets above freezing until FROPA on that thing. That has CAD/mesolow written all over it

Yeah it’s a fine line and I understand staying pessimistic too considering what’s happened the past 6-7 weeks...but if things break right, there could actually be some decent snow totals in the first 10 days of the month. The chances are there. We’ll probably know a lot more about our fate by Monday.

Euro likes the Miller B threat too on 2/8-9.

Good trend. We want that to eject in pieces to keep it positively tilted and colder.

Ukie did have an advisory thump before the parrots come flocking in...so we’d enjoy 6 hours of winter.

Miller B developing at d7-8 in clown range. What a weenie run that was.

There was a third wave that run too that was pretty cold. This is what’s going to happen a lot on these runs though...pretty noticeable changes. The boundary placement is hard enough but then the models are going to have to figure out how the energy is ejected in each round.

Might actually help round 2 though. Phasing a little more SW energy into wave 1 will yank the baroclinic zone south behind it.

Ugh. NWS BOX needs to figure out KBOS. At least it wasn’t a bogus #1 like July 2019 but when you literally have a 2-2.5F head start, it’s not going to take long to get another bogus #1. They are just going to pile up and be a completely useless climate site unless they figure it out. Maybe there was a permanent change on the airport site that just renders it useless. I don’t know. It’s not matching any of the mesonet sites around the airport and it certainly isn’t matching the other first order climate sites.

It would be interesting to look that up purely empirically speaking but I feel like that is correct too. The record high mins sort of back that up. I’m pretty sure the PJ as at a nadir in latitude as well during February which also backs up the “fewer cutters” idea.

Throw 2013 in there too. No depth going into February.

Still seems like we skew late even when we get wiped out before February or during February. 2019, 2018, 2016 all had zero during February before peak depth and even 2014 had just a couple inches going into February.

Good to stay pessimistic at this point. It def looks like a bit of snow and ice right now for interior especially, but it won’t take much to be cold rain either.

My deepest pack by date the past decade: 2010-2011: 39” (2/2/11) 2011-2012: 17” (10/29/12) 2012-2013: 26” (3/8/13) 2013-2014: 27” (2/19/14) 2014-2015: 42” (2/16/15) 2015-2016: 12” (2/5/15) 2016-2017: 19” (2/12/17) 2017-2018: 29” (3/14/18) 2018-2019: 16” (3/4/19) Only the shit winter of 2011-2012 wasn’t in February or March. Pretty funny it was in October. I love December and January snow too, but our deepest winter look almost always after those two months.

Yeah we have like 5-6 posters now. Might have to change the name of our subforum soon to add “Atlantic Canada” to it, lol. Ive always found that area interesting...I remember way back in the day some of the epic pics coming out of there in the 2000-2001 winter. It’s like they cleaned up on every storm that hit us that winter and then a few more. Sometimes we seem joined in the storm track and then other times it’s really different. But either way welcome to the newer posters.

Today’s EPS definitely emphasize wintry potential on wave 1 Don’t get married to the exact outputs though. These are almost guaranteed to change several times.

Yeah. That run had a few inches of snow, then ice, then rain, then maybe back to snow at end of wave 2. Good luck at guidance figuring that mess out. Today has seen a definite shift south of the boundary on guidance compared to last night. Not counting on anything being consistent though. Wouldn’t be surprised if it goes north 100 miles next run. That type of look. I still like 2nd week of Feb too.

Euro coming in significantly colder/flatter for midweek. Guidance definitely having trouble with that boundary placement right now...which isn't a big surprise.

Euro is trying for like an inch or two of snow over SNE for Sat night...esp south. It turns into an IVT but it almost starts off as a little midlevel magic band oriented NE to SW with the H5 trough....

You can tell people about the 1979-1992 stretch (with a special highlight on 1988-1992) and they won't really believe you unless they experienced it. It goes in one ear and out the other. If they remember 1997-1999 then they might have gotten a little preview...that was kind of cruddy stretch...esp down in CT ad towards NYC. I think what I get a kick out of the most these days though is how often people "cancel" winter or throw in the towel in January....you would have thought they learned from 2013 or 2015 but I guess not. Logic or reason never got in the way of a good temper tantrum, lol. Maybe this year they will be right...but when you do it every time, it kind of loses its meaning. Kind of like how JB never missed a KU, right? If you forecast a KU all the time, you can always claim you forecasted it when a real one hits.

Yeah take the under on the sfc temps if that verified....that would just lock in the sfc. But this is literally gonna change every run or two though at this range.

GFS coming in flatter....initial western ejection of energy is more sheared out....in favor of Tip's idea that models may want to hedge that way. It is still trying to eject the final southwest piece in a pretty robust fashion though.

Yeah I pretty much take the dartboard approach too...I have followed LR forecasts for a long time, and I love reading them and appreciate the innovation that has occurred in them.....but we still have a LONG ways to go.

CPC was awful last year...they literally might have gotten their anomalies backwards....they had a good forecast in 2017-2018 though. Here's their past two seasons versus verification