ORH_wxman

Ukie trended quite a bit colder than 00z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of MA...maybe N CT.

The winter has been about as good as 1985.

Created a new thread to isolate the Feb 13 talk...inside 3 days now

Figured I'd start this because we're inside of 3 days and we need a place to discuss this storm where it won't get drowned in the negativity of SNE's snow drought. Looks like another storm mainly for NNE, but can't entirely rule out a thump in SNE....I'm betting against that for now given the synoptic setup of no good high to our north, but still a couple days for this to trend. Here's the problem for the colder solution highlight in green on the map in Quebec.....you can see that little wedge of low pressure sneaking in at the perfect time between our two high pressures. If that was just one large bridged high, probably looking at an almost forum-wide warning event...or at least high end advisory to low end warning.

I remember I responded to several of your melts in 2015-2016 with that....lol. Or I trolled you with excessive cold maps after a cutter (or during an SNE special) in January 2014 less than a year after you complained you weren't getting good cold shots. Haha.

Yeah I'll keep an eye on it...but I'm keeping expectations low. If we get a solid 30-40 mile tick south that looks consistent across model guidance, then I'll def start honking more....hard to see that happening though. Still, we do get surprises in the positive direction on these sometimes. Just not this winter...lol. I'd feel a little more optimistic if the synoptics were good...we could really use a high holding firm to our north....even if that retreating high kind of hung on a little more in Maine/Nova Scotia, that might be enough. We've not been able to get the little nuances work for us very often....same longwave setup but with a little kink in the flow might produce a way more wintry result.....but we were due to regression. I feel like we've been overly lucky in the past decade-plus on front enders.

GFS def wasn't bad verbatim....prob advisory level snows at least down to pike and maybe into N CT. I'm just not expecting it to be correct....marginal midlevels ahead of it with low pressure up in Ontario/Quebec instead of a nice high creating resistance. I'm expecting this to tickle northwest until we're mostly out of the game. Euro is already nearly there.

No, not gonna happen today there...just too torched in the lowest 3000 feet.

Dusting off the "congrats dendrite" auto-reply this next 10 days.

It was less elevation-dependent the further northwest you were.

Mirror opposite of December, lol....took until Dec 9th to get a positive that month. Maybe we'll get some unexpected cold and a pattern shift the final week to complete the mirror....Dec torched at the end of the month.

lol.....yeah. Several models do show some front end for SNE....GFS shows it too, but I'm selling for now south of Rt 2....at least selling anything more than an inch or two followed by cold rain. This is one of those systems too that could just keep bumping NW in the final 48h. There's nothing really stopping it.

Yeah this is basically a non-event for SNE unless it clearly trends better....I'd prob be a little more enthused on it north of Rt 2 in the interior, but that's about it.

Not surprising. Base of WaWa is 33F...so this is really marginal in low levels.

Still ripping on the WaWa webcam....that's crazy....they aren't that far north of ORH where it's all rain.

1980 had 0.8 inches between new years and mid February. Lol. 2007 was pretty bad too until Vday. 1989 was putrid and never got better. 1955 was really bad too...that was the all time lowest snowfall season on record. But yeah, it's not easy.

It's pretty rare to have a 20+ inch gradient between the two (especially with still a chunk of climo yet to come)....happened in '07-'08 too but at least that season was above average in both spots....so it was easier to take, haha.

'96-'97 would have been close (early Dec '96 for interior) but then Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997 happened. That's really the only example i can think of that came close.

That's typically how we get crap seasons....we miss a lot of the advisory type events that tend to add up.... ORH got smoked too but has had very little since then....ORH had over 27 inches in December, but 6 inches since then, lol. HubbDave did get more in the Dec event...I think he had over 21 or 22 inches. His area also got a few inches on some of these front enders when ORH got like 0.5" or something. So it added up to his area being around 52-53 inches.

For the coast that is true, but it's going to get harder in the interior if we don't start getting some half-decent events in the next 2 weeks. ORH is at 33.3 inches...they will need another 36" or so to get to average.

Ripoing pretty good on WaWa webcam....time sensitive https://www.wachusett.com/The-Mountain/Media-Center/Web-Cams.aspx

Just a coating on winter hill at 900+ feet....the marginal events with strong SW or WSW flow are definitely not good on the east side of the hills...they aren't very common, but when they occur, it's really noticeable.

Yeah looks really marginal....not interesting unless we see a solid 30-40 mile tick south and it's consistent on guidance. This is a storm mostly for north of the MA border....maybe far NW MA at elevation does ok too.

Congrats dendrite.

Thursday tickled slightly north overnight so no reason to get invested in that one down here.