ORH_wxman

Which algorithm though? There’s actual euro output which I believe is all your temp levels, qpf, and it may even have ptype...but the actual accumulation maps are usually produced by 3rd party vendors which interpret that raw euro data differently. In this case, if you are using a map that has an algorithm which severely punishes sfc temps above freezing then you’ll end up with an unrealistically low snowfall map. Even the pivotal wx clown map has like 18-24” over parts of E Ma. It’s just another way to interpret the data.

Even BOS itself would be over a foot on that.

What am I missing on the 00z euro? There is no way that is 3-6”. It’s like 1-2” of QPF that is basically all snow (maybe a few hours of rain right along the coast). Are you looking at some clown map that is trying to penalize the sfc output being 33F instead of 31F?

The hilarious part about it is that I’ve had snowpack for huge chunks of March on these so-called “stat padder” storms. I think it took until April to melt off the March 2017 snows...ditto 2018. Ditto 2013. Last year didnt last all month but we had deep pack for a solid 10-12 days after the 3/4 storm until a torching cutter got us around the 15th or 16th.

Still fairly fast but the PNA ridge (really a Rockies ridge) has trended better so that sort of temporarily slows things down just a touch.

06z eps still looks good

EPS looking a lot healthier

Yeah it’s def better than 00z imho. This gets organized earlier than 00z. It still needs some work but it’s getting close. Btw, don’t look now, but d14-15 EPS trend in PAC....lol

Southern stream gets cut off so it could def slow...or the flip side is we have the northern stream speed up.

I thought it looked better than 00z. Not sure what he’s looking for. I mean...I know he wants it to show a UKMET solution...but it’s not that far off.

Slow down that southern streamer just a bit and we’d have a full-on KU type nuke.

It’s not a bad spot to be at 6+ days out. Just keep an eye and hopefully it’s worth tracking in a serious manner by Monday.

6+ days out. This is not really serious for another 36-48 hours.

GFS starting to trend though. Southern stream dragging that run but still not like the foreign models.

Yeah wasn’t great right on the shoreline. But even Natick had 12”...almost all of it fell in like 5 hours, lol. Hellacious front ender. Man snow too.

Scooter being in ATL is somewhat bullish for this threat to trend better.

Awesome event PF. Congrats on the overperformer. Always fun when your own area overperforms everyone.

. To be fair, JB is on board with every storm. It’s like thinking about canceling a storm in a normal winter because Kevin said it was coming. Its background noise

Given the time frame, not getting sucked in yet...but if we’re still looking favorable by tomorrow night or Monday morning then I think it becomes real...that would get us into that 100 hour lead time. At least this has synoptic support in the pattern. It’s transient but things try and line up pretty nicely.

It’s only the GFS that isn’t looking good out of the real models.

EPS are less enthused on that one...the GEFS and GEPS like it a lot more...we'll see if it trends colder...still over 10 days out. That one would not be a coastal type setup like 3/6-7....it would be more of an overrunning look as presently modeled.

Maybe.....

Verbatim, Euro misses this run, but synoptically there is actually a reason to keep an eye on this one.

Here's what I'm talking about at day 6.....you can see a well-placed ridge out west....then we have a good 50/50 low...and finally two shortwaves diving into the mean trough over the east.